Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

What is that feature above 94L, is that a ULL?

As for 94L, I am waiting to see if it can get its act together before even considering where it will go. Thats the million dollar question, such it was with the other systems. Can it fight off the dry air and shear around it, moisten the environment and still maintain itself. That will be the item to watch, also think about this: As with Ana, she set the enviroment up for Bill, any chance this system will set the environment up for the one rolling off the coast of Africa with a broader circulation to it?

Quoting StormFreakyisher:

I doubt it will go in the Carib. I mean look every storm that formed went over the Antilles or over the islands and not in the Caribbean.

Felix 2007 developed into a depression on Aug 31 just 195 miles east of Barbados and traveled across the entire Caribbean basin where it dissapated over Nicaragua. Dean also crossed the entire basin the same year. When they form far south they tend to cross the Caribbean basin.

(fingers crossed) come on erika! pass the caribbean, shoot for the north! be the best fish storm u can be !!!....Sorry guys i couldn't help it...lol

I'm still skeptical about this disturbance moving north of the Antilles. It appears that the system has commenced a west-northwestward movement, but a more northerly component will be necessary for it to pass north of the islands. The system is moving at a decent forward speed and remains relatively weak. If it does not organize quicker, I would expect the models to shift south. I'm more inclined to say that it will enter the north-eastern Caribbean (possibly over the islands), but not much further north than that once reaching about 62.5. The re-building of the high is going to be an important factor which will determine areas to be threatened in a couple days (assuming development occurs).

The GFS however was forecasting something to form in the Eastern Pacific and do a crossover into the BOC, any chance of seeing that happen?

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Felix 2007 developed into a depression on Aug 31 just 195 miles east of Barbados and traveled across the entire Caribbean basin where it dissapated over Nicaragua. Dean also crossed the entire basin the same year. When they form far south they tend to cross the Caribbean basin.

Ageed. Systems that far south while approacing the Antilles more often than not, tend to traverse the Caribbean. Weaknesses in the high have to be significant to induce enough northward movement to pull them north of the islands.

Does anyone have any record of where the models were forecasting Ivan to go in comparison to its actual path?

Quoting caneluver:
The high is building to its north also, just like the CMC model predicts. Not a good thing for the East Coast of the U.S. if or when this wave devlopes. Sooner or later one and it only takes one,is going to squeek by.

like i said dude i dont think this one is gonna miss us this time i dont like the end of the cmc. reminds me of frances

Is anyone having problems viewing the SFWMD Model plots web page?

849. StormFreakyisher 8:54 PM GMT on August 29, 2009

LOL your avator reminds me of Giygas from Mother 2

Quoting caneluver:
The high is building to its north also, just like the CMC model predicts. Not a good thing for the East Coast of the U.S. if or when this wave devlopes. Sooner or later one and it only takes one,is going to squeek by.

The High wont stay that way long with persistent troughing.

Quoting Barbados:
Does anyone have any record of where the models were forecasting Ivan to go in comparison to its actual path?

I don't have any records but they predicted at one point for it to pass N of the Cayman Islands when it in fact passed barely south of there.

Jimena has the smallest eye that I've ever seen! or have i how does it compare to say Wilma's eye?
It also looks like its trying to go through rapid intensification as well

Quoting extreme236:


The High wont stay that way long with persistent troughing.

It's going into carribean IMO, the long shot is weak system getting picked up.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't have any records but they predicted at one point for it to pass N of the Cayman Islands when it in fact passed barely south of there.

Thanks stormwatcherCI, I was really meaning the models when it was still in the early stages in the mid atlantic. Were they forecasting a C'bean storm or a north of the islands?

Thank You iceman55

Quoting centex:
It's going into carribean IMO, the long shot is weak system getting picked up.

Its already moving WNW is gradually organizing...SHIPS doesnt keep it weak for long.

Quoting tornadodude:


how close is that to lake george?

Sorry it took so long to respond, folding laundry.
About 40 min driving, about 30 miles "as the crowe flies".

Quoting MisterJohnny:
Is anyone having problems viewing the SFWMD Model plots web page?

This may have been answered already, but SFWMD is down until Sunday night... There was a notice on the site yesterday.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Felix 2007 developed into a depression on Aug 31 just 195 miles east of Barbados and traveled across the entire Caribbean basin where it dissapated over Nicaragua. Dean also crossed the entire basin the same year. When they form far south they tend to cross the Caribbean basin.

I am talking about this hurricane season 2009.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't have any records but they predicted at one point for it to pass N of the Cayman Islands when it in fact passed barely south of there.

That should have been expected though. We put so much emphasis on the exact track and often fail to realize that a slight wobble or change in direction can create a nightmare. The official NHC track was about 100 miles off and that created a practical landfall for us.

Quoting Barbados:


Thanks stormwatcherCI, I was really meaning the models when it was still in the early stages in the mid atlantic. Were they forecasting a C'bean storm or a north of the islands?

Quoting Barbados:


Thanks stormwatcherCI, I was really meaning the models when it was still in the early stages in the mid atlantic. Were they forecasting a C'bean storm or a north of the islands?

Official track forecasts had, in general, a persistent right-of-track bias for the first 11 days of Ivan's existence as a tropical cyclone (Figure 5a). The official track forecasts relied heavily on the global model forecasts, which prematurely eroded the large and strong subtropical ridge to the north of Ivan that extended well westward across the Bahamas, Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, several of the GFS model forecast cycles consistently eroded the ridge across Bahamas and took Ivan well to the east of Florida, even as the hurricane was approaching Jamaica. Hope this helps.

Something doesn't make much sense in the steering layers =P. It'll probably move west back again soon, I doubt a WSW movement would take place though.

Quoting StadiumEffect:


That should have been expected though. We put so much emphasis on the exact track and often fail to realize that a slight wobble or change in direction can create a nightmare. The official NHC track was about 100 miles off and that created a practical landfall for us.

You in Cayman ?

Hurricane Watch likely for Baja California Peninsula in the future it looks like.

Quoting TriniGirl26:
(fingers crossed) come on erika! pass the caribbean, shoot for the north! be the best fish storm u can be !!!....Sorry guys i couldn't help it...lol

I understand where ya coming from, it would be good for it to head due North now, but really imo opinion the models are way off on this, been from the start, of course things can change , but I doubt it.

Relix, the trough advecting off the eastern seaboard will push the high backwards and induce more northerly movement of 94L

Quoting Drakoen:
Relix, the trough advecting off the eastern seaboard will push the high backwards and induce more northerly movement of 94L

Hey Drak!
8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN

Quoting Barbados:
Does anyone have any record of where the models were forecasting Ivan to go in comparison to its actual path?

Ivan was forcasted originally when it developed to move more northernly into Bahamas and probably hit the east coast , maybe you can check the archive and find out.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You in Cayman ?

Not at the moment. I'm in Miami to finish school.

Quoting DM21Altestic:
not to mention, Felix was a 94L at the SAME TIME OF YEAR.

also, the East Coast is northcasting, 'cause it's going Florida points southward!

Incorrect.

Quoting BenBIogger:


Hey Drak!
8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN

Yes. We may be look at a flatter trough or a trough that may allow a storm to slip under it's high. The geopotential heights will be anomalously above average.

Quoting stormpetrol:

Ivan was forcasted originally when it developed to move more northernly into Bahamas and probably hit the east coast , maybe you can check the archive and find out.

See post 880. This comes from NHC archives.

943
TCNA20 RJTD 292100
CCAA 29210 47644 KROVANH(0911) 14302 11437 132/4 2//// 93116=

21:00 PM UTC August 29 2009
STS Krovanh (0911) "14th system"
30.2N 143.7E

Quoting StadiumEffect:


Not at the moment. I'm in Miami to finish school.

I don't mean at the moment. Are you from here or do you live here ?

LOL at invest 94 in the pacific, the models are completely lunatic..

It looks like the low is still behind and lower than most of the moisture in the storm and it is getting pushed north just a little for the next few hours and then depending on how far north it gets pushed either the trough above to its west draws it up further north like the models are predicting or... it resumes to the west in which case it could become a Gulf Storm in about 12-14 days. Long way to go. It looks like the wave behind it has helped get some of the dry air away from it to its northeast and also gotten the dry air away from the next wave ready to emerge off the west coast of Africa later tonight or tommorrow morning and this next bears watching too. All just potential for the moment.. so far so good for the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Keys... but this could change with this invest and the one that should emerge behind it.

Quoting jipmg:
LOL at invest 94 in the pacific, the models are completely lunatic..

why are they lunatic?