Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Rather disorganiz showers

On the weather channel, they are saying that Invest 94L is basically nothing and has very little chance of becoming anything..... do you all agree? why? Thanks!

Quoting extreme236:


Maybe.

ok

Quoting connie1976:
On the weather channel, they are saying that Invest 94L is basically nothing and has very little chance of becoming anything..... do you all agree? why? Thanks!

I wouldn't put too much stock in TWC if I were you. They always seem to be "Johnny Come Lately" with anything tropical.

Quoting connie1976:
On the weather channel, they are saying that Invest 94L is basically nothing and has very little chance of becoming anything..... do you all agree? why? Thanks!

They base their info on the NHC outlooks.

Quoting StadiumEffect:
Good stuff! There are a few FIU students on here I've noticed.

Really? I haven't noticed anyone else, or I haven't seen em. I'm majoring in Anthropology, but weather is a big hobby. I'm surprised FIU doesn't have a larger meteorology program, seeing how the NHC is on campus.

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


why are they lunatic?

I guess its becuz the official guidance is well east of most of the models.

Did everyone notice Dr Master's update at the top of the page ?

Quoting Hurricane009:
what are the coordinates for 94L??

I estimate it to be around 10.8N/45W with a movement West to slightly north of due west. We'll have to quikscat to see if it catches it tonight.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KROVANH (T0911)
6:00 AM JST August 30 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Krovanh (985 hPa) located at 30.2N 143.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 16 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 33.5N 140.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 38.4N 142.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 44.3N 150.1E - EXTRATROPICAL

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Did everyone notice Dr Master's update at the top of the page ?

yes I did

Dr Master's is off this weekend

94L did all it was going to do for today. I will be surprised if it makes it overnight.

Quoting connie1976:
On the weather channel, they are saying that Invest 94L is basically nothing and has very little chance of becoming anything..... do you all agree? why? Thanks!

with all due respect to TWC I think in 24 to 36 hrs they will be back talking about that invest... I think it will be back as well.... but as a depression it will track more of a westerly movment than once thought of....

Just what I'm seeing right now....

Taco :0)

Hey the circulation seems to be pretty much where I guessed =P, not bad hahaha. I will await for that new update, should be interesting.

Quoting Tazmanian:
any one think that JIMENA will hit cat 5??

I think there is a very good chance... i also say that Mexico needs to watch out

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
3:00 AM JST August 30 2009
=========================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression CP022009 (1004 hPa) located at 15.5N 178.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 6 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 15.4N 176.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Thank you all!! :)

I would like to see 94L move northwest as some of the models say. They are not handling this invest very well. For 94L to miss the islands it would have to go NW from this point on. The storm will likely go wnw then nw as the trough advances east and creates a weakness in the subtropical ridge but given its increasing distance from Bill at that same longitude, this feature could come too close for comfort. Even the TPC have 94L moving wnw over the next 24 hrs.

Quoting Tazmanian:
Dr Master's is off this weekend

Sorry, my bad. Dr. Carver. Just so used to seeing Dr. Masters up there.

94L has 2 spins but looking at the last visible loop again I see the mean COC at 10.5N/42.5W.

IT seem like 94L have us all guessing the models are off 94L contiue to track west

TPC:

The more west it goes, the more it is a threat to the islands and the CONUS right?

Quoting Weather456:
I would like to see 94L move northwest as some of the models say. They are not handling this invest very well. For 94L to miss the islands it would have to go NW from this point on. The storm will likely go wnw then nw as the trough advances east and creates a weakness in the subtropical ridge but given its increasing distance from Bill at that same longitude, this feature could come too close for comfort. Even the TPC have 94L moving wnw.

It's either north of us or over us right? heh

Quoting StormFreakyisher:
The more west it goes, the more it is a threat to the islands and the CONUS right?

I'd have to say yes...

If it get's into the Caribbean it will not survive. The upper level winds, with the magnitude of the 850mb winds, will be unfavorable for development. The GFS shows upper level cyclonic flow in that region.

Quoting Relix:


It's either north of us or over us right? heh

probably so and if its north of us, its closest approach may be 1/2 to 3/4 the distance of Bill.

I see that 94L invest is improving in its structure. Why? First of all the system seems more stacked vertically on satellite imagery. There is really no more NE to SW elongated convection with the convection now more in line of N-S and W-E. Also there is stronger low level convergence seen with the banding features gaining thunderstorm activity and it appears the strongest storms lie on the southern side of the circulation. For now it will probably take 24 hours to strengthen and be organized enough for a well defined surface circulation which right now the surface circulation is a little elongated and broad which will preclude any major intensification.

I see Jimena appears to be weakening a little going through an eyewall replacement cycle and a moat around the central CDO. Banding is almost gone as well as outflow on the eastern side of the circulation as the low remains well organized and very strong. I think peak intensity with Jimena will be exactly what the NHC says at 145mph category four hurricane.

My personal opinion 94L if it develops into anything significant is in a ticklish spot for leewards & windswards, central & NW Caribbean, yucatan & gulf States including WEst Florida, jmo.

The biggest threats seem to be the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Still to early to tell if the entire system will be picked up by the trough like Bill but some northerly motion is expected as a weakness develops thus the chances of a track similar to Dean or Ivan is small.

Quoting stormpetrol:
94L has 2 spins but looking at the last visible loop again I see the mean COC at 10.5N/42.5W.

There has been total DENIAL of the direction this thing has actually moved over the past few days by both the models and most of the people watching it. The only "model" that has had it consistently nailed has been XTRP.

Convection is steadily on the increase with the system

Quoting stormpetrol:

Ivan was forcasted originally when it developed to move more northernly into Bahamas and probably hit the east coast , maybe you can check the archive and find out.

It is very identical.

quick poll will 94L track

A. WEST
b. WNW
C NW

Quoting ackee:
quick poll will 94L track

A. WEST
b. WNW
C NW

A

Pobably the best models to track 94L is the ones that have verified thus far. NW track unlikely until about 3-5 days.

Well the Herbert Box definitely plays some role in where 94L is moving.

I am going to make my first track ever... working on it haha =P

Quoting Drakoen:
If it get's into the Caribbean it will not survive. The upper level winds, with the magnitude of the 850mb winds, will be unfavorable for development. The GFS shows upper level cyclonic flow in that region.

Some of us would rather not see that assumption tested in the real world. ;-)

On the quick poll of direction I would go with a West and then turn to the WNW in the next 24 hours. So for now I continue with the thought of West so A.

Drak, this invest is steadily growing convection and banding is improving. I would like to see banding improve before the central convection so that it has a means of continuing moisture feed into the circulation to sustain convection within the CDO.

Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
On the quick poll of direction I would go with a West and then turn to the WNW in the next 24 hours. So for now I continue with the thought of West so A.

Drak, this invest is steadily growing convection and banding is improving. I would like to see banding improve before the central convection so that it has a means of continuing moisture feed into the circulation to sustain convection within the CDO.

Correct. That's why I have been monitoring the MIMIC-TPW to monitor the moisture and the circulation and how defined it is becoming.