Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting AllStar17:


Moving more WNWerly now

If it doesnt move NW it will pose problems for the greater antilles =P

Quoting KEHCharleston:
To Recap - 3 DAYS OUT (72 Hours)

CMC about 18N 53W 'ish
GFDL about 20N 52W 'ish
HWRF about 19N 52W 'ish

GFS loses 94l

all possible, beginning a more north component

Vorticity remains good.

Quoting AllStar17:
Is Dr. Carver actually going to update? He said he would at 00Z, but he still has not.

I think he is analyzing the 00Z data.

Quoting Drakoen:

Drak, your opinions for 94L?

It's moving WWNW.

Quoting WPBHurricane05:


I think he is analyzing the 00Z data.

Oh.....so when would you expect to get an update from him?

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
its definately starting to move north

Not necessarily ...

Looking at the infrared imagery, the upper level anticylone displaced to the
NE of 94L is producing a southeasterly windflow over the system pushing the clouds northwards and thus giving you the impression that 94L is moving northwards. It's not. The 00Z satellite classification placed it at 10.7N up 0.1 degrees from 10.6N at 18Z.

Be back tomorrow morning.

Quoting AllStar17:
Is Dr. Carver actually going to update? He said he would at 00Z, but he still has not.

Probably early tomorrow he means like 4am-5am EST

1494. SLU
Yep..
Even though there is fairly good agreement with the CMC, GFDL, and HWRF, I just do not see why this (not yet developed) system would turn more northerly.

Quoting AllStar17:


Drak, your opinions for 94L?

MIMIC-TPW shows a low pressure center near 11N which conicides with the quickscat pass. I expect the system to move more to the WNW over the next 24 hours as a trough of low pressure advecting off the eastern seaboard pushes the A/B the east. I currently expect the system to pass the islands just to the north though it is not out of the question for the system to go over the northern islands. MIMIC-TPW additionally shows the system is insulating itself from the dry air. The system should have an easier time sustaining moderate to heavy convection.

well if 94Ls center is at 9n 45W with that new little blob then we got a recovering system but if it isn't like we know =P
then 94L still looks unhealthy

Quoting SLU:


Not necessarily ...

Looking at the infrared imagery, the upper level anticylone displaced to the
NE of 94L is producing a southeasterly windflow over the system pushing the clouds northwards and thus giving you the impression that 94L is moving northwards. It's not. The 00Z satellite classification placed it at 10.7N up 0.1 degrees from 10.6N at 18Z.

ok thats 00Z its only begun the more north movement in the past hour and a half. Dr. Masters explained why this would happen in a previous blog.

Quoting Drakoen:


MIMIC-TPW shows a low pressure center near 11N which conicides with the quickscat pass. I expect the system to move more to the WNW over the next 24 hours as a trough of low pressure advecting off the eastern seaboard pushes the A/B the east. I currently expect the system to pass the islands just to the north though it is not out of the question for the system to go over the northern islands. MIMIC-TPW additionally shows the system is insulating itself from the dry air. The system should have an easier time sustaining moderate to heavy convection.

drak you think orange at 2am?

It is great to see the latest model runs taking 94L more north, but most of us on here knew that 94L would be a fish anyway. Seems like things are starting to die down again which is great news!!!

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


drak you think orange at 2am?

Tough to say

Quoting sfla82:
It is great to see the latest model runs taking 94L more north, but most of us on here knew that 94L would be a fish anyway. Seems like things are starting to die down again which is great news!!!

sigh....

Quoting KEHCharleston:
1494. SLU
Yep..
Even though there is fairly good agreement with the CMC, GFDL, and HWRF, I just do not see why this (not yet developed) system would turn more northerly.

From this afternoons San Juan,PR discussion..."TONIGHT...THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM
CROSS SECTION ALSO SHOWS A MODERATE OMEGA OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE INCREASE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW MORNING. THE LOCAL EFFECTS
AND THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND
WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPERIENCE SHOWERS IN THE FORM OF CU LINES FROM
THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


Look at water vapor. You can see it dropping toward PR...Link

That should help turn 94L.

Quoting IKE:


From this afternoons San Juan,PR discussion..."TONIGHT...THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM
CROSS SECTION ALSO SHOWS A MODERATE OMEGA OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE INCREASE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW MORNING. THE LOCAL EFFECTS
AND THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND
WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPERIENCE SHOWERS IN THE FORM OF CU LINES FROM
THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


Look at water vapor. You can see it dropping toward PR...Link

That should help turn 94L.

then the high will build back in forcing it west again after the Islands.

94L is smiling at us lol xD

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


sigh....

lol

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


ok thats 00Z its only begun the more north movement in the past hour and a half. Dr. Masters explained why this would happen in a previous blog.

yeh ok .. let's wait for the 06Z position estimate then ...

Quoting JLPR:
94L is smiling at us lol xD

Now that AWESOME!!

Quoting JLPR:
94L is smiling at us lol xD

LOL. Probably saying"I fooled ya" haha.

Quoting SLU:



yeh ok .. let's wait for the 06Z classification then ...

bring it! haha :)

Quoting IKE:


From this afternoons San Juan,PR discussion..."TONIGHT...THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM
CROSS SECTION ALSO SHOWS A MODERATE OMEGA OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE INCREASE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THE
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW MORNING. THE LOCAL EFFECTS
AND THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND
WILL ONCE AGAIN EXPERIENCE SHOWERS IN THE FORM OF CU LINES FROM
THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


Look at water vapor. You can see it dropping toward PR...Link

That should help turn 94L.

nope,

94L would have been moving more north by now. The big turning factor is the trough advancing east. That upper low is not affecting steering at all since it remains in the mid-upper levels.

I'm goona' go out on a limb and say that we'll see CODE ORANGE at 8AM tomorrow. CODE RED at 8 PM.

Quoting KEHCharleston:
1494. SLU
Yep..
Even though there is fairly good agreement with the CMC, GFDL, and HWRF, I just do not see why this (not yet developed) system would turn more northerly.

yeah .. i'm very confused

Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm goona' go out on a limb and say that we'll see CODE ORANGE at 8AM tomorrow. CODE RED at 8 PM.

I hope it's a strong limb.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
LOL. Probably saying"I fooled ya" haha.

lol xD yep

Quoting Weather456:


nope,

94L would have been moving more north by now. The big turning factor is the trough advancing east. That upper low is not affecting steering at all since it remains in the mid-upper levels.

Sorry...disagree with you.

Quoting SLU:
The computer models have me completely flabbergasted with 94L. It's not often that you see the HRWF, GFDL and GFS so badly handle a system in the deep tropics where the overall environmental conditions are generally uncomplicated. The models have consistenly been forecasting a very sharp NW turn which looks totally unlikely given the long term satellite trends. 94L has been moving due westwards or even slighly south of due west during the last 24hrs and this motion seems unlikely to stop soon. Any northward component in the track will likely be an evolving WNW motion probably in a day or 2 but by then it might be too late to miss the Antilles. On its present track and forward speed, 94L will be crossing 50W by late Sunday and if it is still south of 12N by then, the chances of it missing the Lesser Antilles will be very low as climatology suggests that most systems which cross 50W south of 13N usually impact the Eastern Caribbean in one way or another.





94L

Thanks SLU thats exactly what I think. And added to another opinion that it would break through the island chain somewhere around 16N it means that the northern Windward Islands such as us better look out and be ready...but lets give it another 24 hours to confirm this.

Quoting IKE:


Sorry...disagree with you.

no problem. I know you would be rooting for this to go north, and it will but it looks like not anytime soon.

Look at the Dvorak loop and observe the low level flow between 60W and 65W above 20N and what flow do you see. Check the "HDW-low" box if you need a hint.

Quoting Drakoen:
Look at the Dvorak loop and observe the low level flow between 60W and 65W above 20N and what flow do you see. Check the "HDW-low" box if you need a hint.

drak im lazy and dont feel like going there haha, what is it? and is the Anticyclone still on top of 94L

Quoting Weather456:


no problem. I know you would be rooting for this to go north, and it will but it looks like not anytime soon.

LOL..."rooting for it to go north"?

And what are you rooting for 456?

Quoting CosmicEvents:
It's moving WWNW.

Actually I think it is moving WWWWWNW

Quoting IKE:


LOL..."rooting for it to go north?"

And what are you rooting for 456?

for an objective track, like StormW and many others have been predicting. Anyone can see the northern model consensus has not verified.

Quoting Weather456:


for an objective track, like StormW and may have been predicting.

That's my objective track. It misses the islands going north of them. If you need rain because it's been dry, I'll root along with you. Anything beyond some rain(tropically), and I'm rooting against it.

Quoting IKE:


That's my objective track. It misses the islands going north of them. If you need rain because it's been dry, I'll root along with you. Anything beyond some rain(tropically), and I'm rooting against it.

I do need the rain but its not because of that. Your looking at 94L missing the islands when its at almost at 50W and hasnt reach 11N? So a NW track from this point on would get the job done, while the system continues west. Despite the fact the system may also end up twice as close as Bill did considering its almost 3 degrees south of Bill.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


sigh....

LMAO...back at you! dont worry you wont be sighing in a few days.

"Experience is the greatest of schools, so that even the fools will learn"