Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting mobilegirl81:

The weaker it is, the less influence there is for anything to pull it up. Remember bill was heading northwest because it was at least a depression .

So you are telling me that because it is weaker it will magically jump over top of a front and not be affected by a NWrly wind component to shear it apart?

Watch Jimena come to life very quickly

http://www.weather.com/maps/geography/northamerica/mexicosatellite_large_animated.html

Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
wow....lots of red here

Wouldn't you like to be an umbrella salesman right now in New England. Looks like a good rain maker. Nice image. Wet, but nice.

Final Update on DANNY:
South Florida StormWatch

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

So you are telling me that because it is weaker it will magically jump over top of a front and not be affected by a NWrly wind component to shear it apart?

Its too low.

I don't know, StormW. BAMS is seeing some reason to pull north a bit. What is it seeing?



Last night, it was clear that BAMS had the south-most track, by far, and BAMM and BAMD pulled more north...like usual.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

So you are telling me that because it is weaker it will magically jump over top of a front and not be affected by a NWrly wind component to shear it apart?

It is too far south.

Quoting mobilegirl81:

Its too low.

For now yes but they are both moving towards each other. I dunno I dont see it. This to me is no doubt an east coast storm if it makes it.

Well I'm off for the day....

I am in Henry Co, Mc Donough Ga to spend time with the Kids..... You all have a great day....

Taco :0)

Mornin' all! So what's the concensus on ole 94-L this morning? North fish storm, southern island rocker or right down the middle into the GOM? Looking pretty weak right now and pretty far south for the trough of LP to have any effect so my best guess would be south. Any other opinions?

Morning everyone.

I've posted an update on my blog, together with an interesting article about the Sun's influence on ENSO.

8/29 - Danny Now Extratropical; 94L Struggling; and the Sun's Role in our Climate

Storm W Goodmorning, I agree with your post about the westward movement of 94L. If theres anything ive learned about watching developing systems, is that when they are in the pre-Td phase, they are NOT influenced by a trough that far south and that weak. Why do you think these models insist on pulling it N right now?

Dont foreget the front will start to stall out as it gets close to the coastline.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

For now yes but they are both moving towards each other. I dunno I dont see it. This to me is no doubt an east coast storm if it makes it.

No doubt....huh?

Just took a quick at globals before heading out and theres nothing out there of any signficance to mention. All i can say is that the eastcoast trof is not going anywere anytime soon.

adrian

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

For now yes but they are both moving towards each other. I dunno I dont see it. This to me is no doubt an east coast storm if it makes it.

Lets just hope its not a monster. The folks in th carribean need some rain bad.

Jimena is amazing. It was just an invest yesterday, right? Hot towers in her eyewall. Amazing!

Same pictures.. second with wind shear added.

the other reasons why it may turn norht is because the models are breaking down the ridge big time.

Quoting AllStar17:



No doubt....huh?

Crow anyone?

And the most recent guidance from the fully-dynamical models also shows 94 to miss the lesser islands (teasing you guys).

Quoting AllStar17:



No doubt....huh?

No doubt at all. A good forecaster never dodges a forecast and a chance to give their opinion on what the pattern is going to do. I wont be eating crow on this one. I am pretty confident in my forecast for this one.

I am not saying the islands wont feels some effects. I am saying it will never reach the Gulf and wont even brush FL.

mobilegirl, where'd yall catch all those speck's?
Dog River, Dauphin Island, Fowl River, Mobile Bay?

I think Trinidad will get some rain in a couple of days.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
the other reasons why it may turn norht is because the models are breaking down the ridge big time.

Yeah, seeing that now.

Guys, these systems in the absence of a high naturally go poleward. If the ridge relaxes a bit, the steering will change.

tpc probably gave up a little to fast on danny..kinda lining up some now with a burst..bet it will be worse than thought

to be blunt, tropical storm (soon to be Hurricane) Jimena is much more interesting than anything system in the atlantic.

Danny has become an ordinary east coast non-tropical system, and 94L does not have much chance to develop. If it moves to the north, the westerly shear which is increasing due to a ULL moving SW from a location of 30 N 46 W, will kill it. If 94L continues to move west, the very dry conditions in the Caribbean and waters east of the lesser Antilles, will kill it.

Link

Link
El Nino is becoming more dominant in the Atlantic basin.

Quoting stormno:
haboobs have the crow standing by my friend you are goingto eat it 94 l will do nothing i repeat nothing..Stormno

What are you talking about? I said IF it forms it is an east coast storm or fish storm. I said it has zero chance to head to the Gulf. I never mentioned anything about it getting a name or not.

Quoting stormno:
well folks it is written in stone i forecasted 6 named storms we are at four but the conditions now are just to hostile for anything to develop in the gom or caribbean...it looks to me like hurricane season is over and we have to wait until next year...i forecast danny would weaken and i also forecat a gradual weakening of 94l...so i hit both on the nose and i also told reedzone danny was going to be a rainmaker for the east coast..guys i been 100% correct all year im not saying im perfect although im pretty dam close to it..stormno hasnt been folowing these things for his health i know about storm development and the way i see it now HURRICANE SEASON IS OVER FOR THIS YEAR...ITS POSSIBLE MAYBE 2 MORE STORMS BUT I REALLY DOUBT IT...GUYS IT WILL GIVE YOU TIME TO STUDY MORE AND LEARN FROM PEOPLE WHO KNOW LIKE PARATROP AND DRAKE..STORM W IS JUST NOT MY CUP OF TEA..I CANT FORGIVE HIM ABOUT THAT ASSININE STATEMENT HE MADE ABOUT BILL BUSTING THROUGH THE TROUGH AT 750MB...WHAT A CRAZY STATEMENT EVEN JEFF MASTERS HAD TO STRAIGTHEN HIM OUT..Stormno

My forecasts has been much more accurate then yours. I predicted Bill to recurve close to New England and look what happened. I was wrong with Dannys possible strength, but my track on Danny was good as well. I know I shouldn't be quoting trolls like you but I had had enough of everybody calling me a wishcaster when I was correct so far this year! There won't be 4-6 storms, there will be at least 8-10 storms. Your wrong!

One more thing to add to back up StormW.. He did not predict Bill to "bust the trough". He said it was a very slim chance and if Bill wa sa day late, East Coast would have had Hurricane Bill knocking at there door! StormW is an excellent, one of the best forecasters on this blog. I have great respect for that man.

Well, since you say it that way, I'll go ahead and forecast that 94 has a lifelong dry air problem and doesn't develop into much of anything. No more a TC than Danny and may not even be named.

Quoting naderchaser:
mobilegirl, where'd yall catch all those speck's?
Dog River, Dauphin Island, Fowl River, Mobile Bay?

Isle au Pitre, which is about 15 miles south of Pass Christian, MS in the Louisiana marsh.

Quoting stormno:
well folks it is written in stone i forecasted 6 named storms we are at four but the conditions now are just to hostile for anything to develop in the gom or caribbean...it looks to me like hurricane season is over and we have to wait until next year...i forecast danny would weaken and i also forecat a gradual weakening of 94l...so i hit both on the nose and i also told reedzone danny was going to be a rainmaker for the east coast..guys i been 100% correct all year im not saying im perfect although im pretty dam close to it..stormno hasnt been folowing these things for his health i know about storm development and the way i see it now HURRICANE SEASON IS OVER FOR THIS YEAR...ITS POSSIBLE MAYBE 2 MORE STORMS BUT I REALLY DOUBT IT...GUYS IT WILL GIVE YOU TIME TO STUDY MORE AND LEARN FROM PEOPLE WHO KNOW LIKE PARATROP AND DRAKE..STORM W IS JUST NOT MY CUP OF TEA..I CANT FORGIVE HIM ABOUT THAT ASSININE STATEMENT HE MADE ABOUT BILL BUSTING THROUGH THE TROUGH AT 750MB...WHAT A CRAZY STATEMENT EVEN JEFF MASTERS HAD TO STRAIGTHEN HIM OUT..Stormno

Stormno for you to suggest that hurricane season is over on Aug 29th. is really irresponsible. If you are really that experienced, people like me rely on experience to help us thru hurricane season.

Wow! From the new Jimena advisory

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...WITH VERY WARM SSTS OVER
30C...VERY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY AND LOW SHEAR. THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS FORECASTING A 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 35 KT
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HIGHEST VALUE I HAVE EVER
SEEN.

Aw, dang. Mr. Doom and I agree on something? I might change my opinion.

Good morning everyone!

I'm glad to see that Danny has become a rain event for the East Coast.

I'm hoping 94L follows suit.

Thanks Orca for the charts this morning!

Quoting StormW:


I don't know what they are seeing right now. But what I'm seeing, is right now it's close to a weakness in the steering, and it's still moving west. Looking at the forecast, the weakness from the front is gonna be off the FL coast...if it's not feeling the WNW flow near the Antilles, how is i going to feel the weakness near FL being in the shape it's in.

Maybe I'm missing something here?

PSU e-WALL STEERING

There you go HaboobsRsweet!

Quoting amd:
to be blunt, tropical storm (soon to be Hurricane) Jimena is much more interesting than anything system in the atlantic.

Danny has become an ordinary east coast non-tropical system, and 94L does not have much chance to develop.

If it moves to the north, the westerly shear which is increasing due to a ULL moving SW from a location of 30 N 46 W, will kill it.

If 94L continues to move west, the very dry conditions in the Caribbean and waters east of the lesser Antilles, will kill it.

El Nino is becoming more dominant in the Atlantic basin.

Wow! You just completely said bye-bye to 94L......and prematurely I might add.

Quoting stormno:
lol reedzone i give you credit for bill you were right on i already said that but danny you blew it pal...i got bill right i said he would brush bermuda and not hit any other land until he got to cananda ...pull my ppost its all there reedzone...Stormno

Pull my post on the track of Danny, it's there yesterday I had predicted Danny to become Extratropical. You need to back your statement with facts and not foolish words.