Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The tropics are quiet

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 13:11 GMT le 06 septembre 2009

Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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1. pottery 13:13 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Tropics are quiet? GOOD! Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20866

2. CaicosRetiredSailor 13:13 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Very good! Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5244

3. IKE 13:13 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Have a nice Labor Day doc! The tropics are quiet 86 days left after today. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

4. fmhurricane2009 13:14 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Tropics are at a standstill Member Since: 15 août 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 212

5. pearlandaggie 13:16 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting pottery: Tropics are quiet? GOOD! Amen to that! Only four days until the historical peak of hurricane season activity. Hopefully, it will be uneventful as well. Member Since: 14 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

6. CaicosRetiredSailor 13:19 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
imPRESSive Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5244

7. CybrTeddy 13:19 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Tropics are quite yet the Doc says we have an AOI that could develop.. guess we'll have to watch it. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

8. KEHCharleston 13:21 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Thanks Doctor I will not yet begin my 'after the seasons over', canned goods rotation. (Eating the food on my Hurricane Shelf) However - I am doing a Happy Dance. Member Since: 19 août 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490

9. lawntonlookers 13:27 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. It will be interesting on the blog today with things being so quite in the Tropics. Member Since: 22 Mars 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570

10. beeleeva 13:27 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Thanks for the update,,,happy Labor day ....and keep the tropics quiet.. Member Since: 22 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 81

11. IKE 13:28 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Found this from Accuweather... "Last Update: 6-SEP-2009 09:06am EDT A stationary frontal boundary in the southwestern Atlantic stretches across Florida into the southwestern Gulf and it will have to be watched for future development. By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller." Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

12. Cavin Rawlins 13:30 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Tropics are quiet, now Tropical depression may form this week Elsewhere in the tropics Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

13. tropicaltank 13:36 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Looks like something developing off the Carolina coast. Member Since: 27 juin 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 242

14. RJT185 13:36 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Hurray for quiet tropics. Member Since: 31 août 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 251

16. Cavin Rawlins 13:37 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Still a quiet tropical Atlantic is not good, so I cant pretend it is. Whats the point of coming here if the tropics are quiet. It is just the same as when blog activity crawls in the middle of February. Also no one should feel guilty or be forced into guilt for wanting tropical activity as most of us live for it and while we dont want the destruction they bring, it is something beyond our control. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

17. HaboobsRsweet 13:43 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting IKE: Found this from Accuweather... "Last Update: 6-SEP-2009 09:06am EDT A stationary frontal boundary in the southwestern Atlantic stretches across Florida into the southwestern Gulf and it will have to be watched for future development. By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller." haha i know that guy. pretty young to be senior met. Good for him. Member Since: 20 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

18. Ameister12 13:45 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
96E looking very nice. Member Since: 9 août 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3628

19. taco2me61 13:45 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: Still a quiet tropical Atlantic is not good, so I cant pretend it is. Whats the point of coming here if the tropics are quiet. It is just the same as when blog activity crawls in the middle of February. Also no one should feel guilty or be forced into guilt for wanting tropical activity as most of us live for it and while we dont want the destruction they bring, it is something beyond our control. Good Point 456 and good morning to everyone Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2788

20. jurakantaino 13:46 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
There is a little swirl at 47W,16N, that has been running into shear. I wonder what could come from this is shear relaxes just a bit, since it has been persistent ahead of 95L for days. Member Since: 31 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

21. BahaHurican 13:48 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Morning all. From the earlier blog: 2808. AussieStorm 8:10 AM EDT on September 06, 2009 Quoting Magicchaos: I think this is the Karen they are talking about. All those other pple explained Karen really well, but I think the joke also got extended even further because in 2008 one of the other basins also had a "Karen"... giving the impression that she had become a world traveller.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17960

22. stormpetrol 13:47 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas26.png Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6493

23. cyclonekid 13:48 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
System off the NC Coast...looking...WOW!! IMO Member Since: 14 juillet 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1665

24. AllStar17 13:49 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
96E likely to become a Tropical Depression today. Member Since: 29 juin 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5145

25. Dakster 13:50 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting taco2me61: Good Point 456 and good morning to everyone Good Morning everyone as well. And I tend to agree with Weather546... Only to add that if we don't have any cyclones to remove the heat from the ocean, next year we may not be so lucky. Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5262

26. Cavin Rawlins 13:50 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Posts 20 and 22, that is the second area that was mentioned in the TWO on Friday and Saturday. Upper level winds have kept it shallow so its moving west but still no indications it might develop further out west. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

27. Ameister12 13:51 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting tropicaltank: Looks like something developing off the Carolina coast. Two things I want to make clear about it. 1. Not enough spin. 2. Looks like it's heading overland. So I doubt that's even gonna develop. Member Since: 9 août 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3628

28. stormpetrol 13:52 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6493

29. jurakantaino 13:52 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting taco2me61: Good Point 456 and good morning to everyone Good point, we are here because we are weather lovers, and yes, we love systems to form and follow them; is beyond our control the damage they cause, but at least there is this forum to share ideas constructively and civilize. If possible! Member Since: 31 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

30. Cotillion 13:53 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: Morning all. From the earlier blog: 2808. AussieStorm 8:10 AM EDT on September 06, 2009 Quoting Magicchaos: I think this is the Karen they are talking about. All those other pple explained Karen really well, but I think the joke also got extended even further because in 2008 one of the other basins also had a "Karen"... giving the impression that she had become a world traveller.... Well remembered, forgotten about that. Typhoon Nuri/Karen (That did hit something though, unfortunately.) Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300

31. BahaHurican 13:53 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: Morning all. From the earlier blog: 2808. AussieStorm 8:10 AM EDT on September 06, 2009 Quoting Magicchaos: I think this is the Karen they are talking about. All those other pple explained Karen really well, but I think the joke also got extended even further because in 2008 one of the other basins also had a "Karen"... giving the impression that she had become a world traveller.... This is the 2008 Karen. Obviously she hung out in the SPac all through the northern winter just so she could swipe the Phillipines and swirl through Hong Kong.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17960

32. AllStar17 13:54 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
While September 10th is the "peak", we still could have very active tropics late in September, so just because it is quiet now does not mean at all that we should be letting our guards down. Member Since: 29 juin 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5145

33. Cavin Rawlins 13:54 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting Dakster: Good Morning everyone as well. And I tend to agree with Weather546... Only to add that if we don't have any cyclones to remove the heat from the ocean, next year we may not be so lucky. Well I already have prepared a blog which I will post during the off-season along with many others. "Life without tropical cyclones" For starters, this blog will be useless and dont tell me that we can discuss other things like local weather, cuz I'm not coming here to tell anyone, I got 4 inches of last week...lol lol Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

34. jurakantaino 13:54 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting stormpetrol: Yes in QK, a hint of a rotation there. Member Since: 31 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

35. BahaHurican 13:54 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Cotillion, u beat me to it. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17960

36. Ameister12 13:56 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting AllStar17: While September 10th is the "peak", we still could have very active tropics late in September, so just because it is quiet now does not mean at all that we should be letting our guards down. Nice point. Member Since: 9 août 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3628

37. Cavin Rawlins 13:58 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Early October is also nothing to discount. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

38. Cotillion 13:57 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: Cotillion, u beat me to it. Wasn't intentional! Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300

39. K8eCane 13:58 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Pretty darn breezy here in SE NC this am and gettin breezier Member Since: 26 avril 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2496

40. IKE 14:00 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Dr. Lyons said the systems in the EATL would have probably developed if it weren't for El Nino. He said the system between 45-50W and 95L...probably would be named storms if it weren't an El Nino year. He also said that he's watching the wave emerging off of Africa. There's more to weather and life than the tropics. Glad that it's quiet in the Atlantic. I'm sure Galveston and the islands are happy it's quiet compared to how it was in 2008 at this time.... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

41. BahaHurican 14:01 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting AllStar17: While September 10th is the "peak", we still could have very active tropics late in September, so just because it is quiet now does not mean at all that we should be letting our guards down. Very true. And this season has been "running late" abt two weeks, so we could see an increase in activity before / around the end of the month. I'm starting to buy in to Ike's hypothesis regarding early ending of the season (mainly because I think the CAR / GOM shear levels will continue to be unhealthy for TCs), but I think the CV season may extend a bit longer than usual. Should be interesting to see what pops in the second and third decades of this month.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17960

42. Ameister12 14:02 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting K8eCane: Pretty darn breezy here in SE NC this am and gettin breezier This little storm system might be the cause. Member Since: 9 août 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3628

43. amd 14:02 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
looks like the tropical wave off Africa is the only system with some chance to develop. An anticyclone is attached to this wave for now, and as long as it stays below 17 north, strong westerlies will not affect its development. Link However, for the rest of the Atlantic, IMHO, I have never seen conditions so unfavorable for development in early September. Some good links to show how unfavorable it really is: Link Link Member Since: 29 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024

44. K8eCane 14:04 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting Ameister12: This little storm system might be the cause. yes it is we are watching it here things blow up quick off the CAROLINA coast Member Since: 26 avril 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2496

45. jurakantaino 14:05 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Erika remnants cause 9" to 10" of rain in some areas in Puerto Rico, specially the SE coast of the Island, causing structural and agricultural damages. Member Since: 31 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

46. Cavin Rawlins 14:05 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting IKE: Dr. Lyons said the systems in the EATL would have probably developed if it weren't for El Nino. He said the system between 45-50W and 95L...probably would be named storms if it weren't an El Nino year. He also said that he's watching the wave emerging off of Africa. There's more to weather and life than the tropics. Glad that it's quiet in the Atlantic. I'm sure Galveston and the islands are happy it's quiet compared to how it was in 2008 at this time.... then why are you so optimistic about any feature that may develop in the GOM. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

47. K8eCane 14:06 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
I've been throwin CAROLINA out there all mornin and still no word from Press.... Member Since: 26 avril 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2496

48. Nolehead 14:06 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
morning everyone....wondering if that area in the SW part of the GOM has any potential?? possible remnants from the EPAC storm??...just curious.... Member Since: 3 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1919

49. BahaHurican 14:07 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: Well I already have prepared a blog which I will post during the off-season along with many others. "Life without tropical cyclones" For starters, this blog will be useless and dont tell me that we can discuss other things like local weather, cuz I'm not coming here to tell anyone, I got 4 inches of last week...lol lol Every "off" season I think we get better at discussing the "other" basins' storms. I've stuck around for three ATL winter seasons, and we've had some interesting moments watching SIndian, Australian, and in a couple of cases, SPac storms. I have also noticed that the amount of information available on the 'net abt those other basins seems to increase each season. Then there's all the reanalysis info, Dr. Gray's early forecast, new studies that have been unveiled - we do manage to amuse ourselves. But the pace is definitely slower. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17960

50. Cavin Rawlins 14:07 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting amd: looks like the tropical wave off Africa is the only system with some chance to develop. An anticyclone is attached to this wave for now, and as long as it stays below 17 north, strong westerlies will not affect its development. Link However, for the rest of the Atlantic, IMHO, I have never seen conditions so unfavorable for development in early September. Some good links to show how unfavorable it really is: Link Link very true, with that branch near 20N it almost seems like the subtropical jet which is suppose to develop in November Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

51. K8eCane 14:07 GMT le 06 septembre 2009
Quoting Ameister12: This little storm system might be the cause. where did you get that radar pic? its awesome Member Since: 26 avril 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2496

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