Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting futuremet:


Yes...

Are we looking at possible tropical storms or hurricanes?

Shear is 20 to 30+ knots in the northern GOM. Low shear of 10 knots is where that vorticity is at.....

Quoting IKE:
Oh....happy Labor Day everyone.

Like you said previously futuremet, this may be the last shot for the northern gulf-coast.

Kinda hard to be happy with so many out of work
9.7 %. Great administration.

Low number 1: extending surface trough.



Low number 2: low pressure system off Texas coast

Quoting stormsurge39:
Are we looking at possible tropical storms or hurricanes?

I don't know

likely a storm

Quoting futuremet:


The NAM shows extending surface trough, with two separate lows trying to form. The models do not have good handle on where along the surface trough will dominant low form. The hybrid low will form next week by Texas.

Thanks Future.

From Key West morning discussion....

"SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MIGRATE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE KEYS TODAY. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOWER TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PROGGED
TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD.
THIS FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PART OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE KEYS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BY THE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF REGION.

FOR TODAY...CONTRADICTORY INDICATORS COME INTO PLAY REGARDING PRECIP
CHANCES. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST TO OUR EAST...AND NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW
SHOULD HELP TO BRING MAINLAND ACTIVITY DOWN INTO OUR AREA...PERHAPS
ALLOWING FOR CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND PRESENT ON THE SUNDAY
EVENING KEY WEST SOUNDING WILL NEED TO MOVE AWAY OR BE MODIFIED...AND
RELATIVELY WARM/STABLE UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL NOT BE AN ENHANCING FACTOR FOR PRECIP. BEST
GUESS IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
BULK OF IT MAY NOT REACH THE KEYS UNTIL THIS EVENING...AND WILL NUDGE
POPS FOR TODAY DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 40 PERCENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NEW
ECMWF IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH A WEAK LOWER/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION EMERGING FROM CUBA AND DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
ALSO BRING ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS WELL...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. LIKELY POPS COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT...BUT UNTIL WE
HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RATHER COMPLEX
SCENARIO...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS OF 50 PERCENT...
ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE WEAK LOWER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE PASSING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEAVING THE KEYS
WITHIN A RATHER MOIST SOUTHEAST/SOUTH FLOW REGIME. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...PERHAPS ORIGINATING FROM
NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OFF CUBA...AND WILL BUMP
POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR THOSE PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT...WHILE ANOTHER MORE INTENSE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS FLORIDA STARTING
FRIDAY...WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING QUITE STRONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO FLORIDA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR CLIMO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER POPS DOWN TO 30 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WHEN STRONG RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HELP TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION VIA SUBSIDENCE."

FWIW From Houston...

ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FORECAST A RATHER DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY
SATURDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE NOT A MAJOR
FRONT...AT LEAST A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO REACH SE TX BY
SUNDAY AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE BLANKETED 30 POPS AREA WIDE
FOR NOW. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TO NORMAL LEVELS THIS PERIOD.

Going east to Lake Charles...

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY FROM
THE NORTH WITH A REPEAT OF TODAY EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
AGAIN RETURN LATE TUESDAY WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE BUILDING
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA FOR WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ENHANCE AND SUPPORT AFTN STORM
DEVELOPMENT

THIS FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PART OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.

Trying to sneak up on us I see

Quoting futuremet:
THIS FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PART OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.

Trying to sneak up on us I see

Lol. I was fixing to say Erika's going to make landfall after all.

Quoting futuremet:
THIS FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PART OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.

Trying to sneak up on us I see

LOL....Erika....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

I guess I should explain my last post. Houston considers itself SE TX. But the SE TX in the Lake Charles discussion is just about everything between Houston and the Louisiana border. I didn't know til recently Houston was SE TX. Lol.
I'm not from here what can I say? :)

So is the low off NC the storm the EURO spins up on that model Future just posted?

Quoting homelesswanderer:
So is the low off NC the storm the EURO spins up on that model Future just posted?

That's September 14th. I would say no.

Quoting IKE:


That's September 14th. I would say no.

Ok. Thanks. Just not usually like them to spin something up like the CMC is famous for. And everyone last night didn't seem to think the low there now would have time to make it.

Morning Storm. :)

Good morning...

Quoting WxLogic:
Good morning...

Good morning. :)

I see you guys are discussing the possible low development in the GOM the NAM has been hinting at for quite sometime.

Good morning and Happy Labor day, everyone!

Oh for crying out loud! If we even get brushed by something tropical on the 13th that would be 3 years in a row. Best I can tell if anything came this way it would be the 14th but still what are the odds? Lol. Geesh.

Quoting homelesswanderer:


Good morning. :)

:) Morning...

Quoting Ameister12:
Good morning and Happy Labor day, everyone!

Good morning. :)

Quoting homelesswanderer:
Oh for crying out loud! If we even get brushed by something tropical on the 13th that would be 3 years in a row. Best I can tell if anything came this way it would be the 14th but still what are the odds? Lol. Geesh.

Peak of the season, I'd imagine the odds are pretty high...

Looks like 96L will be Fred.

If something pops in the GOM it would be Grace. I would put the odds of something forming and named in the GOM at 25-30%, right now.

96L still looking good and I see it has been upgraded to code red.

Good Morning and Happy Labour to you guys

Yea we spell Labour the British way here..

Tropical Update

Guess we're looking for 'It might be turning into a TD'... usually the signal it's getting upgraded.

Possibly at 2.

And yeah, happy "Labor" Day to all you Americans... :)

Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning and Happy Labour to you guys

Yea we spell Labour the British way here..

Tropical Update

Excellent to see... superfluous vowels should never die!

Seeing that all the big wheels are off celebrating Labor Day today and have left a peon in charge (isn't it suppose to be the other way around?)... I officially declare Sept. 7, 2009 as the last day of the 2009 hurricane season.

Cyclogenesis in the GOM seems unlikely at this moment.

I hope 96l/Fred is a fish. The ECMWF spins it up quickly then just before it hits 40w it looks to build the ridge back in over it and turn it wsw. Hopefully the other storm they show makes enough of a weakness in time.

Tough one, Can you explain why there may be a decrease in shear in the GOM this weak, considering there is currently a shortwave trof over LA? TIA.

The title of the blog makes no since now that we have these to storms.

But I'm not discounting anything in the GOM as with Claudette and Humberto, just gotta watch in the meantime.

Quoting IKE:
Looks like 96L will be Fred.

If something pops in the GOM it would be Grace. I would put the odds of something forming and named in the GOM at 25-30%, right now.

My estimate is 5% at the most.

Quoting 10Speed:


My estimate is 5% at the most.

what did you expect...its the GOM, anything in the GOM automatically gets a higher chance than anywhere in the Atlantic, even if you dont like tropical systems.

Gulfcasters

Quoting laflastormtracker:
Tough one, Can you explain why there may be a decrease in shear in the GOM this weak, considering there is currently a shortwave trof over LA? TIA.

According to the discussion from the NO office, that shortwave trough is suppose to move on east....and..."IN THE LOW LEVELS...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA."

Morning StormW and all here.

Nice bubble of convection in the GOM.

Looks like the CV are getting some showers

According to the 6Z GFS the shear in the GOM should lift out by the end of the week...Link

Quoting IKE:


According to the discussion from the NO office, that shortwave trough is suppose to move on east....and..."IN THE LOW LEVELS...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA."

Makes complete sense, thanks Ike. To confirm what you've stated, I saw on The Local Forecast on TWC a forecast of ene winds overnight but ese winds during the day, very typical change-of-season-like conditions but atypical for this early part of September in LA. The "northerly" winds will last only one night with this trough.

Link
Focused on 96L.