Fred is dead; the Atlantic is quiet
Hurricane Fred is dead, thanks to strong wind shear that finished tearing the storm apart yesterday. While the remains of Fred have generated a burst of heavy thunderstorms this morning, prohibitively high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots today through Monday will prevent regeneration, and should be able to completely disrupt the remnant circulation of Fred.
A tropical wave about 200 miles southeast of the Cape Verdes Islands, just off the coast of Africa, remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, and one spot of 45 mph winds in the small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the south side of the circulation. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and may show some slow development beginning Monday, when the shear should drop below 20 knots. NHC is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
A low pressure system that was over the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast has moved inland, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical cyclone. Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.
Figure 1. The remains of Tropical Storm Fred (left) appear as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the north side. A new tropical disturbance near the coast of Africa is disorganized, due to 20 knots of wind shear.
Twenty years ago on this date
On September 13, 1989, Tropical Storm Hugo continued its westward march at 20 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Shortly after midnight on the 13th, satellite analysts at the National Hurricane Center noted a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of thick cirrus clouds was forming over the center. The CDO was evidence that Hugo was beginning to build an eyewall. The thunderstorms in the eyewall were now powerful enough to lift large amounts of moisture 45,000 feet high, where the stable air of the stratosphere lay. Unable to penetrate into the stratosphere, the air lifted by Hugo's thunderstorms was forced to spread outward into a thick, circular layer of cirrus clouds--the CDO--that hid the storm's core. The mystery of what was happening beneath the Central Dense Overcast became apparent a few hours later, when a murky eye appeared. At 8 am EDT on the 13th, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Hugo to hurricane status.
At NOAA's Office of Aircraft Operations--the hurricane hunting division of NOAA--we busily prepared for tomorrow's deployment to Barbados of both of our P-3 Orion hurricane hunting aircraft. There were dropsondes and Air-Expendable Bathythermographs to load, computer checks to make, and calibration data to load. We chatted excitedly about the new hurricane that looked like an excellent case study for the hurricane scientists. But there was also an undercurrent of uneasiness to our cheerful preparations. We knew that a Cape Verdes-type hurricane like Hugo that was still 2 - 3 days from the Lesser Antilles would probably kill a lot of people--perhaps even close to home, here in Florida.
In a letter I wrote that night to my soon-to-be-fiancee, Diane, in Michigan, I said: "Well, that dark enveloping death feeling is back again, much stronger than before. I know Hugo the hurricane will kill people and I feel it coming close to here".
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 13, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Stormno is so good he is a legend in his own mind... Just ask him, he'll tell you..
07L where?
cant wait
He will respond
"Stormno is great. Stormno...
Season is over for hurricanes.november conditions already.shear is very high.maybe next year though many are saying el nino pattern again next year.may be a 2 year break on hurricanes
yup yup yup
07L is Fred
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
102 days, 3 hours, 48 minutes til X-Mas. Link
cant wait
me too
same here
Later this month, they will start filling the store shelves with X-Mas stuff. Time is really flying.
You're most welcome, please let me know if there is anything, that you would like to see on it that's not there.
I'll do my best to get it on the toolbar for ya.
Taz you have said this before but you ignore the fact the storms develop in the BOC late in the season and not even god can predict shear that far out
Taz agrees and said the same thing 2 weeks ago
tool bar?
an end to the most destructive decade in hurricane history.
Quoting Tazmanian:
708. help4u 6:11 PM PDT on September 13, 2009
Season is over for hurricanes.november conditions already.shear is very high.maybe next year though many are saying el nino pattern again next year.may be a 2 year break on hurricanes
yup yup yup
Taz you have said this before but you ignore the fact the storms develop in the BOC late in the season and not even god can predict shear that far out
true but even by OCT wind shear could be vary high in the gulf
guys not evere year where going to have a name storm in the gulf in OCT not with in the past few years we had a name storm in the gulf i think the last time we had a name storm in the gulf was in OCT of 2005
I think he meant the year 2009. not the hurricane season.
Post #663 for Weather/Hurricane Toolbar.
Taz what if wind shear decreases? Post some evidence or its just hunches ur posting.
Quoting Hurricane009:
Grrrr... The season is not almost done. there is an mjo coming in and there are several waves that are likely to develop. PLEASE do not say that again
I think he meant the year 2009. not the hurricane season.
yes i mean 2009
To say for certain that there won't be another Hurricane and/or that one CAN'T affect CONUS in anyway is just plain irresponsible. You could say that it will be difficult or that things will have to change, etc.. etc..
The weatherman/woman can't even tell me whether it will rain tomorrow, so how can you predict cyclogensis for the next 3 months... (Yes, I know that the "season" ends Nov. 30th, but there have been named storms in December... Although, I highly doubt this would be the year for the great XMAS Hurricane)
Just like I could win lotto this Wednesday. There is a 1 in 16 billion chance.
ok, thanks
Were you just watching TWC also.
yea and her name was wilma. You said the exact same thing last year and then Paloma which by the way was in the Gulf and hit Cuba after forming in the off Central America in November.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (T0914)
9:00 AM JST September 14 2009
=========================================
SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon near Marianas
At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Choi-wan (965 hPa) located at 15.6N 148.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west slowly
RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T4.5
Storm-Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center
Gale-Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
180 NM from the center in west quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.4N 146.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 19.5N 142.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 20.9N 139.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
no you dont you mean the hurricane season you have said it twice today and 2 weeks ago.
what was that link for the too bar
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (T0915)
9:00 AM JST September 14 2009
=========================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Koppu (990 hPa) located at 20.0N 115.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 8 knots
RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.0
Gale-Force Winds
==============
160 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity:
=======================
24 HRS: 20.8N 112.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 22.5N 109.1E - Tropical Depression
No. I remember with horror this storm. The windjammer Fantom was lost in this thing. Not a single forecaster at NHC had a clue as to where it was going. It was as bad as you could get. Cat 5 cyclone and not a clue as to where it would go.
July of 2006
Quoting Tazmanian:
mjo dos not mean any thing if you dont have the right wind shear you wont be see any thing with or with out the mjo
Taz what if wind shear decreases? Post some evidence or its just hunches ur posting
yes if wind shear can go down then we can see some in pop up but has has you can see with the A D and E storm there was a lot of wind shear
Viewing: 701 - 751
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