Fred is dead; the Atlantic is quiet
Hurricane Fred is dead, thanks to strong wind shear that finished tearing the storm apart yesterday. While the remains of Fred have generated a burst of heavy thunderstorms this morning, prohibitively high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots today through Monday will prevent regeneration, and should be able to completely disrupt the remnant circulation of Fred.
A tropical wave about 200 miles southeast of the Cape Verdes Islands, just off the coast of Africa, remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, and one spot of 45 mph winds in the small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the south side of the circulation. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and may show some slow development beginning Monday, when the shear should drop below 20 knots. NHC is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
A low pressure system that was over the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast has moved inland, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical cyclone. Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.
Figure 1. The remains of Tropical Storm Fred (left) appear as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the north side. A new tropical disturbance near the coast of Africa is disorganized, due to 20 knots of wind shear.
Twenty years ago on this date
On September 13, 1989, Tropical Storm Hugo continued its westward march at 20 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Shortly after midnight on the 13th, satellite analysts at the National Hurricane Center noted a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of thick cirrus clouds was forming over the center. The CDO was evidence that Hugo was beginning to build an eyewall. The thunderstorms in the eyewall were now powerful enough to lift large amounts of moisture 45,000 feet high, where the stable air of the stratosphere lay. Unable to penetrate into the stratosphere, the air lifted by Hugo's thunderstorms was forced to spread outward into a thick, circular layer of cirrus clouds--the CDO--that hid the storm's core. The mystery of what was happening beneath the Central Dense Overcast became apparent a few hours later, when a murky eye appeared. At 8 am EDT on the 13th, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Hugo to hurricane status.
At NOAA's Office of Aircraft Operations--the hurricane hunting division of NOAA--we busily prepared for tomorrow's deployment to Barbados of both of our P-3 Orion hurricane hunting aircraft. There were dropsondes and Air-Expendable Bathythermographs to load, computer checks to make, and calibration data to load. We chatted excitedly about the new hurricane that looked like an excellent case study for the hurricane scientists. But there was also an undercurrent of uneasiness to our cheerful preparations. We knew that a Cape Verdes-type hurricane like Hugo that was still 2 - 3 days from the Lesser Antilles would probably kill a lot of people--perhaps even close to home, here in Florida.
In a letter I wrote that night to my soon-to-be-fiancee, Diane, in Michigan, I said: "Well, that dark enveloping death feeling is back again, much stronger than before. I know Hugo the hurricane will kill people and I feel it coming close to here".
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 13, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Quoting Tazmanian:
mjo dos not mean any thing if you dont have the right wind shear you wont be see any thing with or with out the mjo
Taz what if wind shear decreases? Post some evidence or its just hunches ur posting
yes if wind shear can go down then we can see some in pop up but has has you can see with the A D and E storm there was a lot of wind shear
yes but you cant say the season is over. and those were Eastern Atlantic storms not Caribbean or Gulf storms you said 2 weeks ago that Erika was it and after that shear would "shut down" hurricane season.
thanks again, thats really cool
all so wilma was a power one time will evere seen kind of storm i sure we wont be seeing that this year all so wilma was not in a EL Nino year
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory.
The Standby Signal No. 1 is in force.
Blog Safe...
ya and so was Andrew and that was an el nino year
Thanks
Yes I guess it was a monster, second deadliest on record behind a hurricane from the 1700's.
I was here in 06 and we had the downcasting but 2009 is much worst.
Persons predicted down to 4 named storms, lol at 1 point, seasonal forecast trended to the negative values.
But I see these posts as nothing more than impatience and judgments that have been damaged by past active seasons since the blogs started. Also, some just like annoying persons who like tracking tropical cyclones.
its post #663
i know but i was kidding i meant it hasnt ended since 2006
lol, ohok
no problem, its a really neat toolbar
Quoting Tazmanian:
Paloma was not in a EL Nino year you are forgeting that
all so wilma was a power one time will evere seen kind of storm i sure we wont be seeing that this year all so wilma was not in a EL Nino year
ya and so was Andrew and that was an el nino year
so true
i tell you guys well see how the next few weeks turn out and will see oh is right far???
doesn't look like it has much room to grow, though....
i give up you win. season over i will call the mayor and tell him the good news
456, on the downcasters of 2009, don't forget we had that super-late start to the season, which made a lot of people think we just wouldn't have time for much of a season.....
I agree man, all indications, and charts show this was clearly a Subtropical Storm.
somewhere Joe Bastardi is getting his wings
I still don't see much going on with that area for now. Maybe when it gets out a bit further from the coast? But not even much of a rotation, if u ask me. And I've been watching it all day, from above and below.... lol
two named storms in October with a strong El niño, so never say never when you are talking about weather
xD
crazier stuff has happened
Maybe you should call StormW and Weather456 "Joe Bastardi" because they also believe the NE storm was Subtropical. All charts indicated warm core and convection was persistent UNTIL it went inland which indicated tropical characteristics. The Subtropical Storm weakens after making landfall in NJ.
Same here Baha...nothing going on now.
Lets keep watching ex-Freddy to see what it does
whoops wrong image xD
fixed now
Hi iceman...
LOL LOL
thats it your done bye
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