Fred is dead; the Atlantic is quiet
Hurricane Fred is dead, thanks to strong wind shear that finished tearing the storm apart yesterday. While the remains of Fred have generated a burst of heavy thunderstorms this morning, prohibitively high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots today through Monday will prevent regeneration, and should be able to completely disrupt the remnant circulation of Fred.
A tropical wave about 200 miles southeast of the Cape Verdes Islands, just off the coast of Africa, remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, and one spot of 45 mph winds in the small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the south side of the circulation. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and may show some slow development beginning Monday, when the shear should drop below 20 knots. NHC is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
A low pressure system that was over the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast has moved inland, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical cyclone. Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.
Figure 1. The remains of Tropical Storm Fred (left) appear as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the north side. A new tropical disturbance near the coast of Africa is disorganized, due to 20 knots of wind shear.
Twenty years ago on this date
On September 13, 1989, Tropical Storm Hugo continued its westward march at 20 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Shortly after midnight on the 13th, satellite analysts at the National Hurricane Center noted a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of thick cirrus clouds was forming over the center. The CDO was evidence that Hugo was beginning to build an eyewall. The thunderstorms in the eyewall were now powerful enough to lift large amounts of moisture 45,000 feet high, where the stable air of the stratosphere lay. Unable to penetrate into the stratosphere, the air lifted by Hugo's thunderstorms was forced to spread outward into a thick, circular layer of cirrus clouds--the CDO--that hid the storm's core. The mystery of what was happening beneath the Central Dense Overcast became apparent a few hours later, when a murky eye appeared. At 8 am EDT on the 13th, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Hugo to hurricane status.
At NOAA's Office of Aircraft Operations--the hurricane hunting division of NOAA--we busily prepared for tomorrow's deployment to Barbados of both of our P-3 Orion hurricane hunting aircraft. There were dropsondes and Air-Expendable Bathythermographs to load, computer checks to make, and calibration data to load. We chatted excitedly about the new hurricane that looked like an excellent case study for the hurricane scientists. But there was also an undercurrent of uneasiness to our cheerful preparations. We knew that a Cape Verdes-type hurricane like Hugo that was still 2 - 3 days from the Lesser Antilles would probably kill a lot of people--perhaps even close to home, here in Florida.
In a letter I wrote that night to my soon-to-be-fiancee, Diane, in Michigan, I said: "Well, that dark enveloping death feeling is back again, much stronger than before. I know Hugo the hurricane will kill people and I feel it coming close to here".
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 13, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I'll put $250 on that bet. Up for it?
I see you guys are wasting keystrokes on stormbob greatpants. Enjoy that, L8R.
-1
and so is the hurricane season
wind shear is looking more like late SEP out there
"Although it is an El Niño year, and the steering current pattern will continue to be favorable for keeping most of our storms out to sea, I expect we will get a hurricane strike somewhere in the Atlantic this season that will require a disaster response."
No hedging there!
I'm not betting against.. Nor will I mention that C-bird if it doesn't pan out. Any track and intensity prog for a season's future cyclones is hard to do, but can be done (and makes it more interesting to watch). He has been doing this for a while and must see some short pattern-shift windows coming that could allow an Atl landfall.
Link
Question: Is a remnant low and a tropical depression the same thing?
709. stormno 3:52 PM EST on September 11, 2009
THIS IS THE 4PM BULLETIN FROM STORMNOs WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS...THE SURFACE LOW OFF TO THE EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI IS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED AND BETTER ORGANIZED..WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NW GOM...PEOPLE I CANT STRESS THIS ENOUGH THE SSTs DOWN THERE ARE IN THE UPPER 80s AND THE WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN TO JUST 5 KNOTS AS A HIGH BUILDS OVER THAT PART OF THE GULF...ALL INTERESTS IN LA AND MISS SHOULD BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..BE PREPARED TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF THIS BECOMES GRACE AND THAT COULD HAPPEN ON SATURDAY..ITS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STATUS LATE SAT NIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE LOUISIANA AND MISS COASTS ON SUNDAY..10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WHEN THE STORM CROSSES THE COAST..A RECON PLANE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT ..A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LA AND MISS COASTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IN LA AND MISS AND LISTEN FOR FUTURE ADVISORIES FROM THERE LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...THIS HAS BEEN A BULLETIN FROM STORMNOs WEATHEROFFICE IN NEW ORLEANS LA...THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 8PM...
Action: Quote | Ignore User
I consider this guy to be dangerous to those who don't know about his hysterical storm sensationalism.... The above comment was made as his usual statement of "FACT". He should be permanently banned for presenting such irresponible nonsense before some unsuspecting person makes an important decision based on statements such as this - imo...
1951: October 20th finish, Hurricane Jig. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.7, 0.7, 0.8)
1957: October 27th finish, Tropical Storm Eight. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.9, 0.9, 1.0)
1963: October 29th finish, Hurricane Ginny/TS Helena. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.8, 0.9, 0.9)
1965: October 19th finish, Hurricane Elena. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 1.2, 1.4, 1.5)
1969: November 25th finish, Hurricane Martha. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.4, 0.6, 0.7)
1972: November 7th finish, Subtropical Storm Delta. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 1.3, 1.5, 1.8)
1976: October 28th finish, Hurricane Holly. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.3, 0.5, 0.7)
1977: October 18th finish, Tropical Storm Frieda. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.4, 0.5, 0.6)
1982: October 2nd finish, Tropical Storm Ernesto. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 1.0, 1.5, 1.9)
1983: September 30th finish, Tropical Storm Dean. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: -0.2, -0.6, -0.8.)
1986: November 21st finish, Hurricane Frances. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.5, 0.7, 0.9.)
1987: October 13th finish, Hurricane Floyd. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 1.6, 1.6, 1.5.)
1991: November 2nd finish, Hurricane Eight. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.9, 0.9, 1.0)
1992: October 27th finish, Hurricane Frances. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.2, 0.0, -0.1.)
1993: September 21st finish, Hurricane Harvey. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.4, 0.4, 0.4.)
1994: November 21st finish, Hurricane Gordon. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.6, 0.7, 0.9.)
1997: October 17th finish, Tropical Storm Grace. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 2.0, 2.2, 2.4.)
2002: October 4th finish, Hurricane Lili. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 1.0, 1.1, 1.3.)
2004: December 4th finish, Tropical Storm Otto. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.8, 0.9, 0.8.)
2006: October 2nd finish, Hurricane Isaac. (El Nino values for JAS/ASO/SON: 0.5, 0.6, 0.9.)
Case closed.
Only two ever El Nino seasons since 1950 stopped in September, and they were in notable El Nino events. Plus, after where we are now.
October is much more likely.
Anybody who says the season's over again, gets stuffed into a dark cupboard....
Season is far from over
Also great facts from Colliton, only TWO El Nino seasons have ended in September and both of those were stronger El Ninos' than this one is.
This season is FAR FROM OVER
AL 07 2009091312 BEST 0 179N 347W 30 1007 LO
I see a lot of ridging in the Atlantic too. Especially on the GFS.
what link is that?
ATCF Database
You said you'd wager that there would be no more named storms in the Atlantic, Carribean or GOM this season. I'm taking you up on that bet. $250, or shut up.
Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
Funny thing is, he's now posting under both names, as if to make the un-informed believe it's two different posters.
But we all know better...
[New Graphics Test]***
how about here:
60. stormno 9:57 AM CDT on September 13, 2009
weatherwannabe i can tell you whats going to happen guy the strong troughs will continue to come down the pipe and cause very strong shear and there absolutely is no chance for development...this hurricane season is over for 2009...people can rest easily but watch out for the heavy snow el nino will bring to the gulfcoast states this year..we have a 50/50 chance of a white xmas this year...Stormno
Nice try , anyway
True IKE was bad for alot of people but he is re accounting an event that almost took his life along with others on that mission. If you did not read the series he wrote take a look very interesting reading. Let the guy vent... its his blog. Not everything revolves around us.
Hey there are a lot of "LOW's"
"ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670913 - 20010923 - 20030904 - 19730903 - 19870921"
HPC 7 day surface loop
Local TV weather > "The stationary front is not moving."
Viewing: 51 - 101
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