Fred is dead; the Atlantic is quiet
Hurricane Fred is dead, thanks to strong wind shear that finished tearing the storm apart yesterday. While the remains of Fred have generated a burst of heavy thunderstorms this morning, prohibitively high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots today through Monday will prevent regeneration, and should be able to completely disrupt the remnant circulation of Fred.
A tropical wave about 200 miles southeast of the Cape Verdes Islands, just off the coast of Africa, remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, and one spot of 45 mph winds in the small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the south side of the circulation. The wave is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and may show some slow development beginning Monday, when the shear should drop below 20 knots. NHC is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
A low pressure system that was over the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast has moved inland, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical cyclone. Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature.
Figure 1. The remains of Tropical Storm Fred (left) appear as a swirl of low-level clouds with a clump of heavy thunderstorm activity on the north side. A new tropical disturbance near the coast of Africa is disorganized, due to 20 knots of wind shear.
Twenty years ago on this date
On September 13, 1989, Tropical Storm Hugo continued its westward march at 20 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Shortly after midnight on the 13th, satellite analysts at the National Hurricane Center noted a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of thick cirrus clouds was forming over the center. The CDO was evidence that Hugo was beginning to build an eyewall. The thunderstorms in the eyewall were now powerful enough to lift large amounts of moisture 45,000 feet high, where the stable air of the stratosphere lay. Unable to penetrate into the stratosphere, the air lifted by Hugo's thunderstorms was forced to spread outward into a thick, circular layer of cirrus clouds--the CDO--that hid the storm's core. The mystery of what was happening beneath the Central Dense Overcast became apparent a few hours later, when a murky eye appeared. At 8 am EDT on the 13th, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Hugo to hurricane status.
At NOAA's Office of Aircraft Operations--the hurricane hunting division of NOAA--we busily prepared for tomorrow's deployment to Barbados of both of our P-3 Orion hurricane hunting aircraft. There were dropsondes and Air-Expendable Bathythermographs to load, computer checks to make, and calibration data to load. We chatted excitedly about the new hurricane that looked like an excellent case study for the hurricane scientists. But there was also an undercurrent of uneasiness to our cheerful preparations. We knew that a Cape Verdes-type hurricane like Hugo that was still 2 - 3 days from the Lesser Antilles would probably kill a lot of people--perhaps even close to home, here in Florida.
In a letter I wrote that night to my soon-to-be-fiancee, Diane, in Michigan, I said: "Well, that dark enveloping death feeling is back again, much stronger than before. I know Hugo the hurricane will kill people and I feel it coming close to here".
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 13, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 — Blog Index
oh yeah, the yellow circle =P
lets wait and see if a orange circle appears later in the week
convection keeps expanding, but it looks like a comet xD
I remember seeing pictures of all of those slain trees. It had never occurred to me before that hurricanes, created by nature, so effectively destroys nature. I can still see all those trees in my mind's eye.
Our tree-hugging family was horrified at the destruction of the from Hurricane Rita.
One of my most vivid images of Ike comes from crossing the Sabine River bridge in Orange County between Tx and La, a bridge with a long approach through the marsh. There were two little armadillos rooting around on the grassy side of the approach in broad daylight with the interstate traffic whizzing by. I thought how odd, but then I remembered, their home was covered in salt water and they had no food to eat. Laugh if you want, but to me they were a poignant reminder of the devastation poured down on all inhabitants of the affected counties.
"I can still see all those trees..."
Yes (ya'll have those big armadillos up there in Amarillo, don't you?) I saw one figure of $100M in trees. Hopefully they salvaged a lot of it, but only so much wood can be moved & processed at a time.
Thanks, Weather, I didn't know that either!
fred with shearing convection both ir and vis
Here in Governor's it's quiet. Cloudy and overcast as almost every day last week, but no rain and winds yet.
Looks like the convection is getting closer to the COC but it also looks like the circulation is getting elongated, he sure is trying though.
As a matter of fact, most of the trees from Rita that fell in Orange County rotted where they lay. My mother had lots of pine and many beautiful, mature white oaks that fell, and no one wanted them. The saw mills were already at capacity and at that time gas was too expensive to truck stuff too far. Their was an article in the paper that said, and I am pretty sure of the number, 90% of the fallen trees would not be used.
Several church groups from all over the US bought little portable sawmills to cut wood for houses, from people who donated their trees.
Mother's trees were beautiful and hadn't been logged in years and years and we never intended to log them. (Tree huggers!) Well, Rita took care of that; it is still a mess.
That's unlikely. 2005 will not matched in pure storms for about 50-70 years. Once in a lifetime event.
Yes, more, although they're not sure about ENSO yet; they say El Nino again, but SW wasn't convinced.
The next big major hurricane season is more likely to be towards the end of the next decade.
Haha, then that's different. 2004/2008 were bad, and here's to hoping 2010 isn't that.
However, we're 3 days beyond the peak of 2009 - we've still got at least a month yet for folks to keep on eye on things.
Don't wanna be complacent, and call out Nature. She gets you back.
Seems like a new center trying to build closer to convection, like the yolk inside a spinning egg.
the blog is dead
hurricane season is dead
the E PAC is where you need too watch if you want too track name storms and the W PAC
6-10 day temperature outlook....
and the 8-14 day temperature outlook which just about gets it to October....
998mb and dropping slowly.
Temp: 20.7C
Hum: 71%
Another band of heavier showers seems to be headed our way in the next 3 hours. Not much wind.
Quoting help4u:
probably change to 0.nothing is going to develop ,too much shear.This season is over as far as hurricanes.maybe a weak tropical storm.that is it.conditions are already like november.
Again, already had to say this today. Unfortunatley, you do not make the weather, mother nature does. Wind Shear will decrease at the end of this month into next month, and we will have more hurricanes, and more major hurricanes
No we wont lol we have EL Nino and in EL Nino years starting OCT wind shear starts picking up big time hurricane season will end in OCT that is all so when the cold fronts start comeing more S EL Nino strong or not its still call EL Nino turst me hurricane season is done in OCT and has far has i no of there has nevere been a hurricane in OCT in a EL Nino year
You know I thought that too, until last years season of 2008. 2010 will likely be an extremely active season.
If this verifies, this should just about finish it for the northern GOM. I sense a major pattern change coming....
6-10 day temperature outlook....
and the 8-14 day temperature outlook which just about gets it to October....
yup
ABNT20 KNHC 132035
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF FRED.
UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED...WHICH IS
LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS POSSIBLE IF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Ok... Any scientific evidence to back this up? The long range GFS model doesn't quite go that far out...
Quoting help4u:
agree,taz.this season is over.Stick a fork in it.vbg
SEASON IS NOT OVER
yes its is its overe. for the USA like IKE said major pattern change coming....
Ryan Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update
September 11: After two years (2007-2008) of dramatically below normal Northern Hemisphere and Global hurricane activity, 2009 has actually (year-to-date) managed LESS Accmulated Cyclone Energy! 2009 is currently the second slowest Northern Hemisphere ACE year-to-date behind 1981 in the past 30-years. Here is a text list of the previous September 11 to-date totals for NH ACE. LIST
Note: While the best-track data quality is significantly poorer prior to 1979, only 1973 and 1977 had less Northern Hemisphere ACE since 1959 than 2009. Indeed, the 1960s were very active in the Western Pacific
September 7: As the peak of the Northern Hemisphere Season approaches, activity globally has become uncharacteristically quiet. The global forecast models are predicting several hurricane formations but so far nothing has panned out. The climatological ACE for the NH (thru Sept 7, based upon 1979-2008 averages) is 282. Currently the NH ACE is 188. Here is a text list of the previous September 7 to-date totals for NH ACE. LIST
Northern Hemisphere ACE through September 7
1979 252.205
1980 261.442
1981 174.685
1982 342.506
1983 237.615
1984 244.547
1985 313.388
1986 245.140
1987 309.823
1988 218.174
1989 293.777
1990 361.638
1991 258.850
1992 421.380
1993 359.823
1994 387.955
1995 301.628
1996 366.117
1997 395.803
1998 221.305
1999 230.620
2000 292.740
2001 241.100
2002 397.985
2003 317.520
2004 495.683
2005 365.705
2006 311.025
2007 237.020
2008 279.615
2009 206.080
AVERAGES: (1979-2008)
EPAC WPAC IO ATL NH
88.2770 155.691 7.00692 53.5851 304.560
2009 is currently at 68% of normal and is so far the second slowest ACE year in the past 30-years (1981 at 174 is less)
Viewing: 251 - 301
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 — Blog Index