Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized
A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.
Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.
Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.
None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.
Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.
Jeff Masters
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98L is, truly, a medium risk. DMIN may be playing a role in its decrease in organization. I believe that 98L will probably fluctuate in organization, and simply just either be a wave or a TS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?
but for historical data. If you have a link handy, can you kindly post it? Thanks.
EDIT:
Never mind. I found it: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2009/
try this for recon
They won't let me access those here - had to go out to my truck & get the CD
LOL. I'd love to see Sarah take on Barack at jeopardy. Would kinda be analogous to Wolf getting crushed by Conan O'Brien's sidekick.
Milton? Thank God,the voice of reason.
XD ...later
It looks like there is a moderate burst of convection on Fred. Since I do not know where the exact center is, it may not mean much. It would appear that shear is relaxing a little, and the high pressure to the east wants to push it a little further south. I guess we have to wait and see how long this one lasts.
Attacks welcome at any time!!
07L is dying, dead, gone! You wishcaster you! :P Just playing, something to watch, it's been persistent so far.
OOOOOh! An attack!!! Glad to see you still have your sense of humor. It seems everyone is gone. My wife always calls me a "wishcaster", every time I tell her I "wish" she would stop nagging me. I better be kidding, she reads these blogs.
USSR was a VERY HOT TOPIC and, yes, Governor of Alaska needs to pay attention and does.
HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SAT SEP 19 2009
SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC TROUGH 23N71W TO LOW PRES 1012 MB NEAR 27N70W TO 30N70W
MOVING WNW 10 TO 15 KT. WITHIN 180 NM E AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES
OF LOW...WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT WITHIN 90 NM N
SEMICIRCLE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH FROM 23N74W TO 31N72W. WITHIN 120 NM E
OF TROUGH FROM 27N TO 29N...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROUGH 24N77W TO 31N76.5W. WINDS LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
Hey Geoffrey, good shot. Have one on that site that shows the water vapor loop that shows the high to the east. I believe it give a good picture of the current status. Interesting to see how long that little burst can last???
It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings.
Aren't we in about the bottom of the sixth?
Honestly it look like what we witnessed this morning, we'll see what happens. Not sold on this at all yet unless convection wraps around the center.
All right Hydrus, I knew you would come through!! AtaaaaaaaK !(How's it going? saw you kept them going a little today. Keep them on their toes)
Chiklit!!! How are you? What was the exact words to that song, .....they just keep rollin' along!! Waves keep coming and we keep watching.
1. Satellite imagery revealed the storm has become asymmetric with the highest rainfall towards the northwest of the center and the highest winds on the northeast or eastern side of the circulation. These are usually the first signs of extra-tropical transition.
2. Another way of telling is by looking at the radius of maximum winds which expand during extratropical transition. The radium expanded from 42 nmi at 18/1800 to 79 nmi at 19/1800
3. Cold air intrusion in the extreme upper levels over the storm.
4. Probably the easiest way is by looking at numerical model phase diagrams which can tell the nature of a system by looking at the symmetry and radius of gale force winds. In the diagram below, Choi-Wan is currently an asymmetric warm-core system of which only 3 systems fir that description. Also notice the filled circle represents not only the central pressure but radius of gale force winds, which has gotten wider.
THIS EVENING. SEAS ALREADY NEAR 5 FT WILL BUILD TO SCA ALONG THE
CENTRAL LEG. THE WINDS 15-20KT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS SO BY SUN
MORNING EXP 4-6FT SEAS THROUGH ALL COASTAL WATERS. FOR S
WATERS...THE 6 FT SEAS WILL BE ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE 20 NM
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE MON AND SE FLOW WITH
LESS SPEED WILL ALLOW SEAS TO COME DOWN A FOOT OR TWO. THERE WILL
BE SOME SE SWELL FROM THE REMNANTS OF FRED IMPACT THE
BEACHES...THOUGH THIS SWELL IS UNDER 2 FT SO LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE SCA. THE WEAK WAVE LEFT FROM FRED WILL MOVE INTO SC
TUE...BRINGING RAIN AND A BRIEF WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT
MORE THAN 10 KT. THE PATTERN BECOMES DISORGANIZED AS THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND
ALLOW SEAS TO FALL TO 4FT OR LESS THROUGH END OF THE FCST.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND ENE WINDS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE HATTERAS N ON SUN...AND MODERATE TO
CAPE LOOKOUT.
from weather service at morehead city nc. Looks like just a rain event.
Hi Sweetie. I think it was Babe Ruth who said that. Do you think we're in the bottom of the sixth inning as far as hurricane season is concerned? Trying to get a perspective on how much time before I go back to reading The New Yorker front to back again.
NDBC
Location: 27.469N 71.491W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 19 Sep 2009 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: N (350°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (81°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.8 F
Pressures are falling in the entire area, all the way to the FLA coast. 29.98 is not all that low though. But they are all falling consistently.
Information only, attacks neither required nor requested at this time!
No, actually is was sung by Paul Robeson in the play "Show Boat" from the song "Ole Man River". Come on Chiklit, you always get these!
Great stuff.
im too addicted to WU =P
and here we go I think
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