Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized
A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.
Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.
Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.
None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.
Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 — Blog Index
"Thunder"... At least by morning it will be nothing more.. I bet we got harder rain today than FredEX will bring...
you're really bent on this going west are you... i asked yesterday, where did you see a high forming so quick after the ridge erodes, and got zero answer.
maybe you meant after it goes like 22N-ish, in which case it doesn't bother me as much but would make sense to you, probably living in the conUS...
so north turn (or reformation) to me = overrated for you...
anyway, if the thing reforms more N, it still goes more N than it would before now would it... think it over :)
A SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
On water vapor loop he's looking more symetrical than he has in weeks:).
There's an outflow channel even developing on the SW. Some banding on the SE.
I have him centered at 26.5N, 70.5W
On the lighter side, anyone remember the movie "Airplane"? Johnny, the guy who made the quick, sny remarks!! Below is a clip of that!!
Link
I noticed you don't seem impressed with FredEX. Are you expecting anything more than a thunderstorm from him. At this point I am not... But I could be wrong.
I've been posting and reading on here for over 4 years. Anytime a system is suppose to go NW, then north, where 98L is at, he says the same thing, 95% of the time.
IKE you gave FRED 100% chance of nothing....Do you still stand by that...YOU KNOW I'm just giving you a hard time now.....LOL
I gave it a 100% chance of not hitting the USA.
Convection dying off again with the trough.
Would be nice to see what he was claiming, is all... :D
As a matter of fact there has been a year without any named storms in the Atlantic... It was along long time ago. I believe in the late 1890's. Dr. Masters talked about it in a blog several months ago.
yea today we had some heavy downpours, it was windy as well.
hehe... and maybe there was, but how would've they've known?
Thanks StormW... I'm still not worried. Even though good ole Fred won't completely go away.
You as well Buddy
Doc M went over that. Mainly with Ship reports. Remember, ALL trade was done via ships back then... So it is possible that one formed and was not noticed... So, yes, I see your point.
yes!!!!
Right click the X and show pic...that site does not like it to be posted openely for some reason....
Yes. Same ULL that "Fred" has been traveling with all week. Shear from the ULL the only real impediment to development.
ADDED: Also providing upper level support for the convection
:)
you see? youre trippin man! u know english...
Has nothing to do with wanting this to go west, but when you look back at this season; every single storm that has originated in the tropics (everyone but TD 1 and Claudette); every single one of them have gone further west than the consensus said they would.
I think many on here would agree with the eastward bias the consensus has shown this season
Hey, anybody see this yet??
The first Tropics Question of the Day:
Watch DMAX tonite...could be a major Xplosion happen.
then 98L is unlikely that enter to the carib... isn´t it?
si pero no mucho
Okay.....
A-1
B-0
C-0
D-0
Winning percentage among WU Users who vote will be the "Final Answer"
lol
Viewing: 951 - 1001
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 — Blog Index