Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized
A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.
Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.
Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.
None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.
Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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lets see how it looks after it
or Hurricane Gustav?
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Cater to the Users of WeatherUndergroud.
Seasidecove, you and I must have attended the same school? Do you count 18 as well? If we must play by the rules, wouldn't one assume the answer should be correct when given?
For instance, when a question is posed on how long the "100 years War lasted, the correct answer would be 116 years, precisely. Shall we move on?
Every once in awhile I get my neighbors going by putting up the shutters and taking out gas cans, test firing the generator..
Knowing Fire Chiefs and with a name like Dicki Uzzle, I would like to see that meeting. Heck, I'd bring a video camera to that...and a floor scraper.
.."Who claims that no Man is an island?,..While I'll end up in Jeopardy more distant from you by degree's"..
OUCH! both of them make a direct hit in Palm Coast, what did I do to deserve that? lol
I'll catch up someday Baha (: (did i do that correctly)or is it:)
LOL.
ROFLMAO
Why do you think I was bringing the floor scraper... It was to help the Chief clean up after the meeting. I've yet to meet a "weak" or "wimpy" fire chief and I've met quite a few - and in several states.
But from their Lips to your ear's.Id listen carefully,those who wish calamity wholesale.
The winds die off and misery becomes your best friend,and that..is a reality check for those who haven't,tasted,nor smelled death,wholesale.
Hey, cc me on that, I had 18. And it had 4 votes.(unless there was possibly a hanging chad in there somewhere)
I've got a wierd/warped sense of humor. I have to tone it down quite a bit for the blog.
I'm glad I made you laugh.
I can't do the detailed MET analysis that many users here do. (Dr. Masters included) - However, most of this is COMMON SENSE, although it appears at times to not be all that common.
98L will follow
I should be rich if i stayed on here all Day Press.....LOL
What a surprising compliment, I thank you for that!
A - 3
B - 6 (Majority of WU Bloggers = Final Answer)
C - 3 (Correct Answer)
D - 1
Orange is the majority of what the WU Bloggers thought
Green is the correct answer
Correct.
That would be the one... He is quite funny.
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