Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Hmm looking at that, 07L is yet again for the umpteenth time making another comeback lol. I see a large deep blow up of convection where the ULL is in the Western Carribean, course with those hot temps, it's expected.
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
Quoting iceman55:
u what to see fred right?


Both 98L and 07L ... Satellites go up to about 4:00. Blackout should be over with soon, I think someone told me it ends at 2:30 a.m. but I dunno.
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
Hmm blackout still not out yet, hopefully soon.. I'm getting tired.
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
1399. JLPR
Quoting reedzone:


Few more minutes till blackout is gone. It's odd to me that major models are bringing 07L back to life, a weak low, but still a regeneration. Is the westerlies supposed to move north and allow 07L to ramp up? Who knows lol.


with how unpredictable 07L has been
expect anything from it
it can dissipate tomorrow or develop into a TS
who knows, I got tired of guessing with Fred lol
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Quoting JLPR:


lol look at the picture posted by iceman on post 1383
and Fred... well we have to wait to see him


Few more minutes till blackout is gone. It's odd to me that major models are bringing 07L back to life, a weak low, but still a regeneration. Is the westerlies supposed to move north and allow 07L to ramp up? Who knows lol.
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
1393. JLPR
and 98L isn't exactly breathtaking right now XD



If this continues expect a yellow circle later today
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1391. JLPR
Quoting reedzone:
Can't see what's going on with 07L or 98L. All satellites are on blackout till 2:30 a.m.


lol look at the picture posted by iceman on post 1383
and Fred... well we have to wait to see him
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And I have referred to 2006 as the slow year. This is the first time I have scrolled this site in over a week. That says a lot for September. Even the usual players are missing. Its the 19/20th of sep and it feels like May.
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Can't see what's going on with 07L or 98L. All satellites are on blackout till 2:30 a.m.
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
1385. docrod
love the quiet ... fight on folks
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Just when you thought there was no hope fro 07L, GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF all develop a small low. The NHC also saying slow organization is possible, now that there is model support, maybe just maybe 07L could do it.
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
Quoting iceman55:




This mean more or less activity?
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1377. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:
Here cometh that new high that would "keep 98L on a west track"


by the looks of 98L and its weak LLC I would say it can open up to a wave and maybe develop further down the road
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That is true, but along with them, in MS we got the Mex. Our demographics has done a complete flip flop here...really kind of funny, when you hear a neighbor child complaining that she or he has to NOW has to learn Spanish!

When b4 Katrina, it wasn't even on the minds of folks around here.
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1375. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:
i really dont want to sound racist here but this is the truth:

i had never seen so many black people in mass in the USA like i saw when katrina hit

i mean, after being raised watching US television, sports, going to NY and FL a couple of times, you'd think... but no.

i realised, probably like in PR you have to go to Loiza to see black people in considerable numbers... then new orleans is probably one such place.


yep that sounds right
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Here cometh that new high that would "keep 98L on a west track"
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i really dont want to sound racist here but this is the truth:

i had never seen so many black people in mass in the USA like i saw when katrina hit

i mean, after being raised watching US television, sports, going to NY and FL a couple of times, you'd think... but no.

i realised, probably like in PR you have to go to Loiza to see black people in considerable numbers... then new orleans is probably one such place.
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Quoting JLPR:


lol this is the quietest year I can remember =P


my swirl of the year was ana? was it ana? lol now i cant remember... to much crap goes on sometimes in one's life

swirls that refuse to die... only an invest in august (or july?) caused somewhat of a stir here in ponce. that, and the rains from erika.
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Dak -

Yeah we have the same set up here , just a strong suggestion as well...but I mean if you seen the photos of the MS coast, their are no tree barriers any more, at least for the first couple of blocks inland. Seawalls...we don't got'em and don't need'em..at least that the general thought here!

We have 10 ft surge here when Gustav passed by us...water I think they said, was within 1/4 mile of Highway 90 again!

I just hope this year or whatever year the next storm hits here folks will do the right thing and leave..it's like buiding you home on the beach around here now...chances are it's not going to make it thru the next Depression/TS/or Hurricane!

But let the Media show up...and whoa boy...it's Hurricane Party Time with Jim & Steph!
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1369. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:


curious thing of last year is i cant remember any cyclone except omar... because it brought me super good surf to the south coast :D

very strange ... and sad, that i've been away from the tropics that much :( not this year tho. Even tho it is the Year of the Shear and such


lol this is the quietest year I can remember =P
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Pensacola here.
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Quoting JLPR:
Well I was looking at random pictures and found this:
now this is a September, this year has been very tranquil =]



and as you can see this year's silence is best


curious thing of last year is i cant remember any cyclone except omar... because it brought me super good surf to the south coast :D

very strange ... and sad, that i've been away from the tropics that much :( not this year tho. Even tho it is the Year of the Shear and such
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1366. code1
Quoting 850Realtor:
Code 1...where are u on the panhandle?


Destin area.
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1365. code1
And I left off MS coast post Katrina. My apologies. The main hit area!!! NO had the floods of those who couldn't/wouldn't get out, but the MS coast took far the greater brunt of her fury. Driving through that coast post storm was something like the Mad Max movie for those old enough to have seen that.
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Quoting Dakster:


Yes, you are very correct. And at least here, a mandatory evacuation is still just a strong suggestion - for the most part, the police cannot enforce it. (Although certain public facilities have to evac and will - ALF's, for example) Mobile Home parks, if they don't leave we ask for next of kin information.

BTW - not to nitpick, but it is a CATCH-22...


he was just Caught Redhanded lol

grim thing about the 2hefties and duct tape tho
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Code 1...where are u on the panhandle?
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1362. Dakster
Quoting Seasidecove:
Patrap-

"So when the folks say its time to move ,move..dont hesitate.

You may find yourself in a Body Bag and well..if none are available,..I can say from experience...2 Large Hefty Glad bags are required and about a Half of Roll of good duct tape.
"

I agree with you there ..but here in lies the problem, or at least here on the MS coast.

When Katrina was a Cat 5, I tried to get my neighbors to leave. Here's what I was told, "This house has with stood the Hurricane of 47, Hurricane Lili, and Camille.

Katrina won't be that bad, couldn't be worse than Camille."


Older citizens, are set in their ways, this I have found to be true, their home and possessions are all they have..If they float away, so will the old person!"

Younger folks, I find funny, as they stay because Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrhams are here covering the storm...They look at it well if a Girl can stay out in a 100mph storm, so can we! Their thinking here...Crack me another beer Billy, Hurricane Winds are only 130 mph!

Lot of folks here are that way, they see the media coming in to cover the storm, and figure well, the storm mustn't be all that bad after all..so they stay!

So what can city leaders and the like do, it's a Caught 22, and they can't win, in this sittation.


Yes, you are very correct. And at least here, a mandatory evacuation is still just a strong suggestion - for the most part, the police cannot enforce it. (Although certain public facilities have to evac and will - ALF's, for example) Mobile Home parks, if they don't leave we ask for next of kin information.

BTW - not to nitpick, but it is a CATCH-22...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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