Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized
A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.
Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.
Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.
None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.
Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yeah...i noticed that too.
Sorry taz, I don't curse, so it was the best I could do lol. It had to be said.
They think they're smartalecs.. How about that one, there smartalecs!
Actually yes I have been getting better thanks! My fever broke, and my symptoms have been gradually fading away although I think I'll still call in sick Monday, just to make absolute sure I'm alright.
am with IKE on that one
lol, Ike, yea ur right sometimes it can be taken out of control. But its more than weather for some. For me it's passionate.
That's what I've been saying, TD or weak TS at best.
but still it could have been said in a nicer way
Sorry, had to be said. They think they're so right, when in the end, they could be eating crow... like me.
Glad you're feeling better.
Hope it stays that way.
call me acting Admin Taz
Ok rephrase.. Downcasters are smartalecs!
yes but it could have been said in a nicer way
whats find out
Second, to all of you who automatically throw the "troll" mudball or "ignore" those who take a different viewpoint, you are out of touch with reality. Open and honest communication is the only way. Just don't stae something as fact without evidence to back it up. MAny if you supply ample evidence of your being out of touch. Too much Dungeons and Dragons, I'd hypothesize...
The fact is, as others have pointed out, there is a lot of misinformation here, as well as baseless predicitions. Opinions are fine - they are opinions, but predictions should have some basis in evidence...
i think 98L will go out too sea mode runs been showing it
After the ups and downs of this season, nothing surprises me anymore.
I don't see as well a defined circulation with Fred as it had yesterday, now that I can see what's left of it since the convection is fading.
any one fred is dead or is he makeing a come back fred been toying with us for a long time
Hey! I did NOT expect rapid intensification, how dare you put words in my mouth! Off you go Downcaster!
Is Fred:
1. To be
2. Not to be.
am not too sure any more LOL
Sorry it took me so long to get back on here, dealing w/avatar weirdness. I'm glad you're better, C-Teddy, and sure, take Monday off...hope none of your colleagues caught it when you relapsed. Take care of yourself for sure.
They must have stock in kleenex
then yet oh nos???
can you stop yeling Please
To tell you the truth, I really don't know. Weather is very unpredictible. Alberto was set to die in 2006, then blew up a 70 mph. Tropical Storm. Very unpredictable, it's a wait and see with 07L. I'm done with the arguing.
Taz, I agree with you. Here is a little definition.
1) To write a blog entry. Blogs (definition #2 below) became so popular that the noun was turned into a verb; for example, "I'll blog about that subject next month."
(2) (WeBLOG) A Web site that contains dated text entries in reverse chronological order about a topic (most recent entry first). Blogs serve many purposes from personal journals to online newsletters to "ranting and raving." Written by one person or a group of contributors, entries contain commentary, observations and opinions and may include images, audio, video, links to other sites and even a search facility for finding earlier entries. See audioblog and vlog.
Blogs may invite comments and feedback similar to the Internet newsgroup discussions that started long before the Web came about (see newsgroup). For bloggers who want to develop a relationship with readers, user feedback is essential. Blogs often support RSS syndication, which automatically notifies users when new blog entries are posted (see
syndication feed).
Blogs are not always for experts. I agree with this definition, but don't agree about the "ranting and ravings" part. I've never seen anyone on here "rant and rave". Have you?
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