Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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1360. GatorWX
Quoting Patrap:
"Those who havent danced with a Major..know not what the "Ell" they say..and that's always entertaining here"..

But from their Lips to your ear's.Id listen carefully,those who wish calamity wholesale.

The winds die off and misery becomes your best friend,and that..is a reality check for those who haven't,tasted,nor smelled death,wholesale.







Great video Pat! Thanks for posting it. Very sad, but very good words of wisdom, which hopefully someone will listen to. Storms such as these are dangerous and this video definitely shows the value of life over property. Obviously Katrina-esque storms are not very common, but you never know and it's better safe than sorry. Again, thanks Pat!
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1359. code1
Reading back on some of the comments tonight. I am amazed! How old are those of you "stating" what is, and what isn't major? I live on the panhandle of FL (nuff said right there!). Was kicked out of a hotel in Mobile, almost 2 1/2 hours away from NO after Katrina for rescue workers to have a place to get to NO from, and have seen the SETX coast 11 months post Ike. I saw SEFL in late 04 (after 3 storms) after my own issues with Ivan. Then Dennis 8 months later. Grew up in SFL and missed Andrew thankfully. Watched on TV as Cat 2 Hugo decimated the SC coast, and have watched others cause MAJOR damage far inland. Major? Your definition please?
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Quoting presslord:


Did you miss the whole Ike thing last year? Really...get some help...


Absolutely stunning WS would say that,
Ike was FAR WORSE than Wilma in many respects.

The horrific damage we saw last year would still be just as horrific if it came in as a 115 mph Category 3 vs a 110 mph Category 2.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


yes,indeed. I evacuated,so I did not see it happeneing. However, we have family who stayed and could hear the wood fence in the back yard being pulled up into the air by a tornado. SCARY!!!!!


I left too. The aftermath was bad enough. That may not have been a tornado they heard. I read somewhere she produced no tornadoes. Of course they may just not known about them. The one in Beaumont a couple a weeks ago shocked the NWS
and everyone else. Lol
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Quoting JLPR:
Well I was looking at random pictures and found this:
now this is a September, this year has been very tranquil =]



and as you can see this year's silence is best


wow....busy.
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good bye fred 98L 98E
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
1353. JLPR
Well I was looking at random pictures and found this:
now this is a September, this year has been very tranquil =]



and as you can see this year's silence is best
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Patrap-

"So when the folks say its time to move ,move..dont hesitate.

You may find yourself in a Body Bag and well..if none are available,..I can say from experience...2 Large Hefty Glad bags are required and about a Half of Roll of good duct tape.
"

I agree with you there ..but here in lies the problem, or at least here on the MS coast.

When Katrina was a Cat 5, I tried to get my neighbors to leave. Here's what I was told, "This house has with stood the Hurricane of 47, Hurricane Lili, and Camille.

Katrina won't be that bad, couldn't be worse than Camille."


Older citizens, are set in their ways, this I have found to be true, their home and possessions are all they have..If they float away, so will the old person!"

Younger folks, I find funny, as they stay because Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrhams are here covering the storm...They look at it well if a Girl can stay out in a 100mph storm, so can we! Their thinking here...Crack me another beer Billy, Hurricane Winds are only 130 mph!

Lot of folks here are that way, they see the media coming in to cover the storm, and figure well, the storm mustn't be all that bad after all..so they stay!

So what can city leaders and the like do, it's a CATCH-22, and they can't win, in this sittation.
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1351. Dakster
Grothar - Have fun on your trip and goodnight...

Time for me to go too... Hopefully I don't wake-up to any suprises!
Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Any updates on ex-Fred this evening? Don't have time to go back and read a whole bunch of pages...
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yes it is. But who, a hundred or more miles inland would have thought he needed to worry about the hurricane. Rita was something you had to see to believe.


yes,indeed. I evacuated,so I did not see it happeneing. However, we have family who stayed and could hear the wood fence in the back yard being pulled up into the air by a tornado. SCARY!!!!!
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1348. Grothar


Last post. Iceman usually does this to us right before we retire, but I shall beat him to it. It always gives us something to dream about. Nite all for real this time
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
Quoting Grothar:
Good night everyone. I am getting the eye, if you know what I mean. Stay well and I shall return when I can. May have to leave the country again for awhile. Not sure yet. Play nice and fair.

And thank you again TexnowNM for that very nice comment!


Nite Grothar.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


That is just sad....


Yes it is. But who, a hundred or more miles inland would have thought he needed to worry about the hurricane. Rita was something you had to see to believe.
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1345. Grothar
Good night everyone. I am getting the eye, if you know what I mean. Stay well and I shall return when I can. May have to leave the country again for awhile. Not sure yet. Play nice and fair.

And thank you again TexnowNM for that very nice comment!
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
1344. Dakster
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yes I've seen them too. All the way up to Angelina County. Angelina County was the place of one of the 2 deaths blamed directly on the storm. A man crushed by a tree while sitting in his house. :(


That sucks..
Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yes I've seen them too. All the way up to Angelina County. Angelina County was the place of one of the 2 deaths blamed directly on the storm. A man crushed by a tree while sitting in his house. :(


That is just sad....
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Quoting texdeb:


Rita took out stretches of trees like that 150 miles north of Silsbee that I have seen.


Yes I've seen them too. All the way up to Angelina County. Angelina County was the place of one of the 2 deaths blamed directly on the storm. A man crushed by a tree while sitting in his house. :(
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1341. Dakster
Quoting watcher123:
Rita blew in all the rotten stench from the mold and...other...decay in NOLA when it came through. I remember we all got sick from the rotten stench of NOLA after that storm.


Thanks for the smell reminder again... Geez.. There are certain things you can't "un-see" or "un-smell" and the smell of rotting human flesh happens to be one of them.

Try going into a house, in South Florida, in the summer, with NO A/C, where someone died 2 weeks ago... You know its bad when even the flies are trying to get out of the place.
Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting homelesswanderer:


That's north of Silsbee. And you know how far north Silsbee is. A good argument for inland dangers. Rita took out 50% of those tees. Ike another 20% of what was left. The outcome of those two storms not only changed the landscape but also new animals and birds are moving in as others have left, maybe for good?


man, yeah, Silsbee is not that far(from us).....
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1337. Dakster
Grothar - CONUS won't be "overdue" until maybe after the 2010 season. We (CONUS) still have a ways to go to break any records.
Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1336. texdeb
Quoting homelesswanderer:


That's north of Silsbee. And you know how far north Silsbee is. A good argument for inland dangers. Rita took out 50% of those tees. Ike another 20% of what was left. The outcome of those two storms not only changed the landscape but also new animals and birds are moving in as others have left, maybe for good?


Rita took out stretches of trees like that 150 miles north of Silsbee that I have seen.
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1334. Grothar
Quoting Becca36:
Re post 1327:
Thank you! This is the kind of info I really appreciate on this blog!


Anytime! The other reference was a little in joke amongst some other bloggers. Not intended for you. Enjoy the info!
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
1333. Becca36
Re post 1327:
Thank you! This is the kind of info I really appreciate on this blog!
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


wow... I have never seen that...


That's north of Silsbee. And you know how far north Silsbee is. A good argument for inland dangers. Rita took out 50% of those tees. Ike another 20% of what was left. The outcome of those two storms not only changed the landscape but also new animals and birds are moving in as others have left, maybe for good?
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1330. Patrap

Trees Lost to Katrina May Present Climate Challenge



January 21, 2008

Almost everyone has heard about Hurricane Katrina's toll on the residents of New Orleans. But Gulf Coast trees also took a wallop. Hundreds of millions of trees were destroyed or badly damaged and have become an unexpectedly large contributor to global warming, according to new research.

In fact, trees killed by Katrina will release about as much global warming pollution into the air as all the trees across the nation soak in over the course of one year, according to a study by Jeff Chambers, a Tulane University biology professor.
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1329. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
I better say "so far".... lol

I'm going to bed. Will see u guys later...


Baha, just 5 more minutes ok
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
1328. Dakster
Quoting Patrap:
The Saffir-Simpson scale is very outmoded..it was designed for wind loading on structures and has no scale for Size nor surge.
Also,size matter immensely as well.


Like folks saying Katrina was a Cat-3 at landfall is moot,as not any cat 3,nor 5 ever produced a 30 ft Storm Surge.
Not Camille,nor Andrew...

So when the folks say its time to move ,move..dont hesitate.

You may find yourself in a Body Bag and well..if none are available,..I can say from experience...2 Large Hefty Glad bags are required and about a Half of Roll of good duct tape.

Food fer thought,for all those still wanting to experience a Major wholesale.

Avoid it...and for Gods sake,never wish for it.


NOAA K Base relief map with thumbnails.

Thats a 3 hour drive from East to West.

Take it one day,..and do some thinking on that.


And nothing beats that SMELL... Thanks for bringing that memory back.
Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
1327. Grothar
Quoting Becca36:
Re:1237
Does anyone know the longest period of time between major hurricanes hitting the CONUS?
TIA


In fact, four out of the 15 longest periods without hurricane strikes (that's about 27%) have occurred since 1983 -- when the planet was presumably in full overheat mode. Lengthy strike-free periods extended through 1983 (1105 days, ending with Hurricane Alicia), 1995 (700 days, ending with Hurricane Erin), 2002 (1084 days, ending with Hurricane Lili) and 2007 (688 days and counting).

Four out of the longest 15 strike-free periods occurred in the second half of the 19th Century. Prolonged periods of inactivity extended through 1865 (1412 days, ending with the Sabine River-Lake Calcasieu Hurricane), 1873 (716 days, ending with a Florida strike from an unnamed hurricane), 1885 (718 days, ending with strikes in South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida from an unnamed hurricane) and 1893 (731 days, ending with the Midnight Storm Hurricane).

The remaining seven periods were spread out between 1903 and 1974.

Particularly striking -- in a strike-free sense, that is -- is that two of the five longest periods of U.S. mainland strike inactivity have occurred over the past 24 years. The five longest periods without strikes include: 1865, 1415 days; 1983,1105 days; 2002, 1084 days; 1932, 1050 days and 1974, 812 days.


I provide, you disseminate, fair enough! If there is anything for which you may need further clarification, please feel free to ask Bahahurican or Allstar17 or others, they would be more than glad to provide assistance.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
I better say "so far".... lol

I'm going to bed. Will see u guys later...
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21516
1325. JLPR
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Rita's deforestation project.

ritatree


yep majors like deforestation a lot :|
Part of PR's El Yunque after Hurricane Hugo


finding a photo from 1989 ain't easy lol
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1324. Patrap
The Saffir-Simpson scale is very outmoded..it was designed for wind loading on structures and has no scale for Size nor surge.
Also,size matter immensely as well.


Like folks saying Katrina was a Cat-3 at landfall is moot,as not any cat 3,nor 5 ever produced a 30 ft Storm Surge.
Not Camille,nor Andrew...

So when the folks say its time to move ,move..dont hesitate.

You may find yourself in a Body Bag and well..if none are available,..I can say from experience...2 Large Hefty Glad bags are required and about a Half of Roll of good duct tape.

Food fer thought,for all those still wanting to experience a Major wholesale.

Avoid it...and for Gods sake,never wish for it.


NOAA K Base relief map with thumbnails.

Thats a 3 hour drive from East to West.

Take it one day,..and do some thinking on that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaRefugee:
Ike, Gustav, and RITA were not as bad as it can get. There are 2 higher categories than any of these. Should let people on the Gulf coast know not to mess with these storms. Lost my house and almost everything I owned to a CAT 3 called Rita. When I came back for the "Look and Leave" 2 weeks after the storm, all I had was what I had packed for the evac. MAJOR storm for me, but not as bad as it could have been. Current flood maps show a CAT 5 will flood EVERYTHING from my house to Interstate 10. I don't want that.
Well said. I've read descriptions of the 1935 Keys hurricane that talked about people's clothes, and IIRC, skin, being flayed from their bodies by the blowing sand.... and in Bolivar many of those buildings were "beachhouse" construction -built as "summer homes" - basically not designed to withstand this kind of storm. Homes in T&C and Inagua, generally built to withstand hurricane winds, were damaged / destroyed by the earlier cat 4/3 version of Ike.

I think pple who don't fully understand what these storms can do may downplay and say "oh it's only cat 2", but a cat 2 blew a 90 ft tall mango tree down onto my dad's car and mangled it. They can do considerable damage. Basic word is, if u are told to leave your area, get out. And like WxStu said, we have been lucky the CONUS hasn't been hit by a major in the last 4 seasons.
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21516
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Rita's deforestation project.

ritatree


wow... I have never seen that...
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1320. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
whats the matter ws you seem a little off from the centre of the universe
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1319. JLPR
98Ls LLC is open to the west

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Rita's deforestation project.

ritatree
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1316. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
yes or stand out in a lightening storm
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
yo KOG...I shoulda bought a lottery ticket...
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1313. Becca36
Re:1237
Does anyone know the longest period of time between major hurricanes hitting the CONUS?
TIA
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mail - grothar
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1311. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
evening press isee ya have lucky post 1300
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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