Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized
A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.
Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.
Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.
None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.
Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.
Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 — Blog Index
98L looks like "Erika, Jr"! Pulls it together during D-MIN and quiets down during D-MAX!!
After last year, truthfully, we NEEDED a QUIET YEAR!!!
Additionally, who gets to decide who the experts are? I might want to include kman, drak, and TampaSpin. Would you want to do the same? Is the decision made by blog votes, in which case it becomes a popularity contest, or does the Doc make it, in which case it becomes just one man's opinion?
I think the blog is fine the way it is. The only "expert" I feel should be recognised in any blog is the blog owner. Besides, each of the respected bloggers in here has his/her own blog, which is read by many bloggers and lurkers every day. I don't think they need an extra "ribbon on the chest" to be respected by others here.
Again, were are the wishcasters? Am I one? Hope not, I'm just stating my opinion. Of course after all the obsessive paranoia I think some of us are feeling an opinion against their opinion is evil. This might just be the flu effecting my brain or, people are really confused and paranoid around here.
Nop
I state opinions, I never said a storm will definitely hit somewhere or anything like that. I always use could, might, and may. I use these words because models are not always right, you got to look at the pattern and steering. Everyone has a right to state a personal opinion, not a untrue statement.
you are just a devil today... :)
Just like I will say goodbye to you my wunderground blogger friend, have fun stating untrue facts, bye bye now :D
But a great tool to look the flow through the entire atmosphere reveals it maybe having some effect on Fred
After that, not so sure what to expect.....
MARK
14N/40W
98L looks like a boiling pot ...
Link
This WU is for everyone from the novice to the pro to learn, share, ask questions and have some fun!! The "trolls" are here, there and everywhere!!
We're PASSIONATE about weather! We love it and have loved it for years! Many of us work, have families and responsibilities and are we try to be decent people!!
Observe these things, IF you want to insult people, go look up "insulting blogs" on Google and go there and hang out!!
Have a nice day:
Bob Bordonaro
Your posts sound eerily similar to one....stormtop...stormno...or any other SN's you've used.
Way to go Baha. But in my un-expert opinion, you should have ribbon for this one!
Will someone please Fredex me something for my tropical repression?
(1 being lowest and 10 being highest)
I give 98L a "7":
Honestly i give 07L a "2":
LOL! heheheee
If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts.
Albert Einstein
Thank you, StormW.
As someone mentioned earier, some of us that follow the blog (or lurk) are in Emergency Management (or disaster assistance) and truly appreciate a heads-up from the wiser heads on this site. And yes, we know that things can change quickly...still, much appreciate a clearly-written projection.
Glad to see u are finally doing better, btw. Attended a brief work-related seminar abt H1N1 here yesterday, and the advice about staying at home until fully recovered is what stuck with me. Unfortunately, it's easy to think u are "over" the flu when u are not....
Hey there Chiklit. Long time no talk. We all promised not to mention the typo on "tropical repression" earlier.
But my definition of "tropical repression is when you live in "Florida" and your wife won't let you watch football on Sundays. End of story!!!
I'll admit that your going on my ignore list :) I told you I'm DONE ARGUING!
IR ANMIN. IMAGE
Humor is sometimes good medicine, too.
Sorry Reed but I have been lurking for a very long time and now I will say my speak/....
Dude you make outright predictions....and your , maybe, well, possibly words aren't really evident
Viewing: 251 - 301
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 — Blog Index