Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:06 GMT le 19 septembre 2009

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A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of 98L and the remains of Hurricane Fred.

Twenty years ago today
On September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.


Figure 2. GOES visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 19, 1989. Wind shear had weakened Hugo to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.

I'll have an update this afternoon if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

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Well 07L did it again, deep burst convection to nothing. However, it is still in 5-10 knots, but hasn't taken advantage. DMAX is it's only hope for regeneration in my opinion.
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
BahaHurican--

"Storms change names from ATL to PAC because it is a different basin. Storms that pass from EPac to CPac to WPac generally keep the same name. Best example I can remember is the longlived hurricane John of 1994. Here is what I found at wikipedia abt this storm."


Thanks for the info, I didn't know, that as althought it is the Pacific Basin as a whole.

As to whether since we had East Pacific, Central Pacfic, and Far East Pacific Cyclone offices, as to whether the East/Central might be different as far as naming goes from that of the Far East Pacific. Thankx Again! :-)
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1208. IKE
Buoy 41047, right near the remnant, is capturing the full effects of the remnant trough/artist, formerly known as Fred....

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 84 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.99 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.01 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.9 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.2 %uFFFDF


Quoting foggymyst:
Tampa, ts AFTER it crossed fla?


I wonder if Floridians are putting up their shutters tonight?
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Tampa, ts AFTER it crosses fla?
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But my storm was more "fun" than yours, Grothar... John was cool as an example of how a recordsetting cat 5 hurricane can be one with an unretired name.... lol
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1203. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting CosmicEvents:

Yea....but if he somehow restrengthens enough to be a TD, even for 3 hours, then the average margin of error goes up to 3000+ miles for all the models...except bam-bam. That's going back 14 days, but I would think that a 3000 mile "miss" would set the record......



Actually the -1s going across there means the model wasn't run specifically on Fred that day... Model wasn't run.. there is no error.
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1202. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
Storms change names from ATL to PAC because it is a different basin. Storms that pass from EPac to CPac to WPac generally keep the same name. Best example I can remember is the longlived hurricane John of 1994. Here is what I found at wikipedia abt this storm.

Hurricane John (also known as Typhoon John, international designation: 9420, JTWC designation: 10E) formed during the 1994 Pacific hurricane season and became both the longest-lasting and the farthest-traveling tropical cyclone ever observed. John formed during the strong El Niño of 1991 to 1994 and peaked as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, the highest categorization for hurricanes.

Over the course of its existence, it followed a 13,000 kilometres (8,100 mi) path from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and back to the central Pacific, lasting 31 days in total.[1] Because it existed in both the eastern and western Pacific, John was one of a small number of tropical cyclones to be designated as both a hurricane and a typhoon. Despite lasting for a full month, John barely affected land at all, bringing only minimal effects to the Hawaiian islands and a United States military base on Johnston Atoll.



HaHA Baha! I finally beat you at something. Look at post 1184. Are these questions making you a little sea-sick, like I am?
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
What intensity are you predicting? Cat 3 or 4 maybe?


LOL...Just a Tropical Storm at best!...LOL
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1199. Grothar
Quoting juslivn:

C'mon Allstar my bananas have gone from green to yellow to brown here. ;)


Way too funny!
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1198. Skyepony (Mod)
98L LGEM & SHIP aren't too far off tied at 31.4nm in error for the day

Average Error (nm) models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
LGEM DECREASING 31.4 -1 -1 -1 -1
SHIP DECREASING 31.4 -1 -1 -1 -1
BAMD DECREASING 50 -1 -1 -1 -1
LBAR DECREASING 62.5 -1 -1 -1 -1
KHRM DECREASING 67.6 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5B DECREASING 75.3 -1 -1 -1 -1
HWRF DECREASING 84.7 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5E DECREASING 88.5 -1 -1 -1 -1
GFDL DECREASING 96.3 -1 -1 -1 -1


GFDL isn't doing well on either disturbance.
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1197. will40
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Given the shear, why is Fred firing on the north end? The south end is calmer upstairs. Moisture?

This thing has a plan. It thinks like a wounded animal.



I think it is pulling moisture from the trof that was pulling it from the North earlier
Member Since: 19 septembre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
1195. IKE
Quoting CosmicEvents:

Forget FRED for a minute. It looks like a rainy night in Georgia.


I see the convection over west-central Georgia.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Tampaspin --> Thanks Buddy! :-)
Keep up the Good Work!
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Quoting Skyepony:
LBAR nails the Fred-ex forecast today.

Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
LBAR DECREASING 12.5 -1 -1 -1 -1
OFCL CONSTANT 44.2 -1 -1 -1 -1
HWRF INCREASING 63 -1 -1 -1 -1
KHRM INCREASING 72.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
BAMD INCREASING 73.4 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5B DECREASING 76.3 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5E INCREASING 91.8 -1 -1 -1 -1
GFDL INCREASING 118.4 -1 -1 -1 -1

Yea....but if he somehow restrengthens enough to be a TD, even for 3 hours, then the average margin of error goes up to 3000+ miles for all the models...except bam-bam. That's going back 14 days, but I would think that a 3000 mile "miss" would set the record......
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1190. beell
Good support at 700mb for a turn in this run but maybe a little farther west. Actually the next upstream trough (advertised by most NWS offices as "strong") that should turn 98L.

18Z GFS Valid Wednesday, 18Z
img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
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1189. juslivn
Quoting Grothar:
ALLSTAR, Some of us are not that young. I don't even buy green bananas anymore! Know what I mean?

C'mon Allstar my bananas have gone from green to yellow to brown here. ;)
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Quoting zebralove:
seaside I didnt know that...seems like it would be harder to track all the way from start to finish that way...hmmm thanks for the info
Storms change names from ATL to PAC because it is a different basin. Storms that pass from EPac to CPac to WPac generally keep the same name. Best example I can remember is the longlived hurricane John of 1994. Here is what I found at wikipedia abt this storm.

Hurricane John (also known as Typhoon John, international designation: 9420, JTWC designation: 10E) formed during the 1994 Pacific hurricane season and became both the longest-lasting and the farthest-traveling tropical cyclone ever observed. John formed during the strong El Niño of 1991 to 1994 and peaked as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, the highest categorization for hurricanes.

Over the course of its existence, it followed a 13,000 kilometres (8,100 mi) path from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and back to the central Pacific, lasting 31 days in total.[1] Because it existed in both the eastern and western Pacific, John was one of a small number of tropical cyclones to be designated as both a hurricane and a typhoon. Despite lasting for a full month, John barely affected land at all, bringing only minimal effects to the Hawaiian islands and a United States military base on Johnston Atoll.

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Given the shear, why is Fred firing on the circulation's north end? The south end is calmer upstairs. Moisture?

This thing has a plan. It thinks like a wounded animal, and they're far more likely to bite you.

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Quoting Seasidecove:


So is the track ou show in msg #1160 for Freddy, is this the track of the perfect storm as well?


What i'm simply saying was the Perfect storm had the exact same ingredients as what will happen after Fred crosses Florida if he does. There is a cold front coming along with a MidLevel Low. I have no idea if they was to meet what would happen...NO idea.
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Quoting IKE:


Not much left of him now...convection has died....


Forget FRED for a minute. It looks like a rainy night in Georgia.
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1184. Grothar
Quoting zebralove:
so if a hurricane passes over the dateline do they change it to typhoon or does it stay hurricane because of where it originated?


Hurricane Ele (2002)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from Hurricane Ele)
Jump to: navigation, search
Hurricane/Typhoon Ele Typhoon (JMA)
Category 4 hurricane (SSHS)

Typhoon Ele shortly after crossing the International Date Line on August 30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Formed August 26, 2002
Dissipated September 10, 2002
Highest
winds 165 km/h (105 mph) (10-minute sustained)
215 km/h (135 mph) (1-minute sustained)

Lowest pressure 940 hPa (mbar)
Fatalities None
Damage None
Areas
affected No land areas
Part of the
2002 Pacific hurricane season and the 2002 Pacific typhoon season
Hurricane Ele (was also Typhoon Ele, international designation: 0217, and JTWC designation: 02C) was a powerful and long lived hurricane which formed in the central Pacific basin before crossing the International Date Line and being reclassified a typhoon. Ele was also the strongest hurricane in the central Pacific in the 2002 Pacific hurricane season, packing winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) as it moved out of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility. The storm traversed the Pacific Ocean for 15 days before dissipating over open waters.



Hope this answers the question fully.
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Spoiler Alert for those who have to turn in...
Link
1953 had no retired names.
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1182. Relix
Fred = Nothing
98L = Not much either ATM. The weaker it stays the closer it gets to the islands though.
Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
1181. Skyepony (Mod)
LBAR nails the Fred-ex forecast today.

Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
LBAR DECREASING 12.5 -1 -1 -1 -1
OFCL CONSTANT 44.2 -1 -1 -1 -1
HWRF INCREASING 63 -1 -1 -1 -1
KHRM INCREASING 72.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
BAMD INCREASING 73.4 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5B DECREASING 76.3 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5E INCREASING 91.8 -1 -1 -1 -1
GFDL INCREASING 118.4 -1 -1 -1 -1
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Yes in the GOM....Its just my opinion...there is a cold front coming that will erode the West side of the High and also a MidLevel spin coming out of the Caribbean into the GOM about the same time.....as those that have read my WebSite update the combination of the 3 i am calling the minature Perfect Storm.


So is the track ou show in msg #1160 for Freddy, is this the track of the perfect storm as well?
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1179. will40
Quoting IKE:


Not much left of him now...convection has died....



Yea i know Ike the NWS discussion said a weak wave
Member Since: 19 septembre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
just like right now there is invest 98 in the atlantic and invest 98 in the pacific too.... seems to get confusing
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1176. IKE
Quoting will40:
IMO That high will be well off shore before what is left of fred gets there


Not much left of him now...convection has died....

Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
seaside I didnt know that...seems like it would be harder to track all the way from start to finish that way...hmmm thanks for the info
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Quoting Seasidecove:


Do you have Freddy crossing the NE GOM are you leaving it going over land?


Had to correct the words i meant as the high moves East.
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Quoting zebralove:
so if a hurricane passes over the dateline do they change it to typhoon or does it stay hurricane because of where it originated?


I would think it would change names, much like if a Hurricane exits the Atlantic and re emerges in the Pacific, it get's renamed.
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1172. will40
IMO That high will be well off shore before what is left of fred gets there
Member Since: 19 septembre 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4251
Quoting Seasidecove:


Do you have Freddy crossing the NE GOM are you leaving it going over land?


Yes in the GOM....Its just my opinion...there is a cold front coming that will erode the West side of the High and also a MidLevel spin coming out of the Caribbean into the GOM about the same time.....as those that have read my WebSite update the combination of the 3 i am calling the minature Perfect Storm.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Including WS's answer:

The final tally of the first TQOTD:
A - 3
B - 6
C - 3
D - 1

"I vote "M", Trebek."*
.
.
*Sean Connery, SNL, Jeopardy skit
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Quoting zebralove:
so if a hurricane passes over the dateline do they change it to typhoon or does it stay hurricane because of where it originated?
No idea but would guess it would stay the same.
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so if a hurricane passes over the dateline do they change it to typhoon or does it stay hurricane because of where it originated?
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1166. juslivn
How could the count on 'C' change? It had four votes at post 1122. Not that it is right, but???
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Here is where Fred should Go in my opinion. He will have to travel around the high to his west as the high moves west.



Do you have Freddy crossing the NE GOM are you leaving it going over land?
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Zebralove they are really the same thing, typhones are named in the western Pacific, hurricanes in the eastern Pacific. Its the same type of weather system.
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thank you
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Including WS's answer:

The final tally of the first TQOTD:
A - 3
B - 6
C - 3
D - 1
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Another victim of the Year of the Sheer/Shear!

I figure if it's like the rest of the storms this year, it'll also be a nakid low level swirl
spinning across the open Atlantic, in the next day or so..LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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