98L and Fred-ex pose little threat
A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has lost most of its heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air has been instrumental in disrupting development of 98L over the weekend.
Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. Tuesday through Thursday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, so it is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger than a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. It does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas. The GFDL and NOGAPS models develop 98L into a tropical storm; the other models do not.
Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Fred-ex (located at the tail end of a cold front draped over the Atlantic), and 98L.
Fred-ex
The remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 600 miles east of the Georgia-Florida border. Fred-ex's circulation has become ill-defined over the past day, and there has been no increase in heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is affecting the storm, and there is also quite a bit of dry air interfering with development. The high wind shear and dry air will continue to affect Fred-ex over the next three days, as the storm moves west-northwest at 10 mph. Most of the models show the moisture from Fred-ex moving ashore between northern Florida and North Carolina Tuesday or Wednesday. None of the models develop Fred-ex, and I'm not expecting it to cause any flooding problems when it moves ashore.
Twenty years ago today
On September 20, 1989, Hurricane Hugo continued its steady northwest march at 15 mph towards the Southeast U.S., brushing the Bahama Islands along the way. Wind shear diminished, allowing the hurricane to intensify back to a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane watches and warnings had not yet been posted for the U.S. coast, but at noon on September 20, Mayor Riley of Charleston went on the air, telling residents of the city that Hugo was a killer. There was a very good chance that Hugo would be South Carolina's worst disaster this century, he said, with a storm surge up to fifteen feet high. Now, while the weather was good and the storm still far away, was the time to board up and get out.
Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 20, 1989. Wind shear had diminished, allowing Hugo to intensify to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
South Carolinans paid attention. Within an hour, residents jammed hardware stores and supermarkets. Traffic on roads away from the coast swelled as people scrambled to flee the arrival of the first major hurricane to strike South Carolina in thirty years--since Category 3 Hurricane Gracie of 1959 slammed into the coast south of Charleston.
At 6 pm, it became official: the Southeast U.S. coast from St. Augustine to Cape Hatteras had been placed under a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions could be expected within 36 hours. The torrent of evacuees leaving the coast swelled, reaching a million people in all.
In the U.S. Virgin Islands, the aftermath of Hugo became desperate as widespread looting erupted on St. Croix, forcing President Bush to send 1,100 troops. Wunderground member Mike Steers was there, and relates this story: "Surviving the aftermath was the real challenge. The lack of power, water, communications of any kind, and the crime and looting was the real test. After about a week of digging out of the remains of the house and neighborhood I was able to venture out on my motorcycle to see what had become of my job. On the way, I personally witnessed the looting and lawlessness. I even saw a National Guard truck backed up to what was a appliance store and the guardsmen were helping themselves to washers and dryers. Never mind that there was no power to run them. When I got to the seaplane ramp, I saw the total destruction that is depicted in one of the photos I sent. On my way home, there was a small local grocery store I had usually gone to, and I was going to stop in and see how the owners were doing. There was a band of youths in the process of carrying out everything that was not nailed down. From the back, out ran a rastaman with a machete saying he wanted my motorcycle. Needless to say, I gunned it and got back to my house as soon as possible. My neighbors and I set up our own armed 24-hour security checkpoint to protect ourselves. It was about a week later that the first of the giant C-5s flew over, sent by President Bush to start to restore order..."
Figure 3. Newspaper headline from the Virgin Islands Daily News after Hurricane Hugo, detailing the looting problems on St. Croix. Image scanned in by Mike Steers.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 — Blog Index
yes he is dead at last
That was November, and the wind shear becomes more prevalent in the Caribbean during these times. As the positive MJO left, shear started returning over the area. This caused Paloma to weaken substantially just before landfall, and Cuba's terrains eventually finished job. It is seldom to get tropical cyclogenesis in November, even in La nina years.
I don't think they believe them. It's been forecast to happen twice before in September and it didn't materialize. From reading the discussions this afternoon, mets aren't biting on this change...yet.
Thank God, I was getting highly annoyed including it in my tropical update. lol
I agree with that xD
Hehe... quite true.
Nino conditions tend to produce historically more Miller A storms that ride the east coast from the Gulf than Nina conditions, but that is only if the NAO cooperates, and with a negative PDO any chance of large scale coastal storm hinges on the forecast of the NAO this year.
456 can you imagine a Lenny in November lol
now that would be surprising =P
In my mind, the Season still has just over 2 months to goa nd we are approaching that time of the Season when Hurricanes can start very quickly right on our doorstep in the Caribbean - Bay of Honduras etc.
I hope those that say "the Season is over" are correct but I am a cynic - although not nearly so cynical as Mother Nature can be!
this is more updated
I was, but it wouldn't be fair to those who read my blog trying to get info on him.
What landfall weakened Paloma considerably - it certainly was NOT Cayman Brac! Paloma was not a weak Hurricane when she passed over us here!
It can happen, thats why these late season storms are so uncertain. They can pop up anytime.
Saying that...this season, so far, has been a yawner.
My season prediction of 10-4-2....the 10 part, probably isn't going to happen.
She was a voluptuous hurricane indeed. Cayman Brac was to small to cause signficant weakening to Paloma. It eventually weakened significantly later that same day, due to increasing upper level winds from the west. It made landfall in Cuba as a weak Cat 2...
Hehe... "voluptuous" nice choice of word to describe Paloma... she was definitely a "keeper" before she decided to hit land. :(
yup fred is dead
Ain't over till I've seen the last play....
That doesn't sound good for me, Grothar, and everybody in South Florida. What do you think the chances are of another RI like Wilma down there in the Western Caribbean FutureMet?
I do for sure foresee a busier 2010 season. There won't be or in other words... it won't take much to reheat the ATL, Carib, and GOM (but more specially the latter 2) and finally El Nino shouldn't be a prevalent as it was this year.
The question also goes to anybody else as well.
yea
yes
Personally, I think it's those pesky cut off lows. Throws everyone off. Once those make way, I firmly believe it will come in earnest!
adrian
If 2005 was neutral....tell my house the Hurricane Wilma didn't happen.
You're right. Those cutoff lows and the difficulty to forecast them has made it hard on forecasters.
WOHOO!!! We're finally ranked in the top ten.
I have been posting for some time that this season could be over by early October. It would certainly appear that the CV season is finished. In fact it looks like late October out in the Atlantic already.
Little is left of what was 98L and from yesterday morning it was fairly obvious that due to the poor organization of that system it was on borrowed time.
I am a little surprised that a weak El Nino could produce such relatively quiet conditions in the Atl..
Shear has not been the only storm killer this year. If anything dry air left over from the SAL outbreak did more damage than shear.
Still, who's complaining. In these tough economic times who needs more adversity ?.
I;m not, can't use a 'cane at the moment..
BTW, KMAN, did anything spontaneously develope or pop up at the part last night? You left in rather a hurry...
No problems at the party. Got the last one out at 12:30 LOL
000
ABNT20 KNHC 202347
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Dead quiet at the peak of the season seems like we are almost done with 2009 season, mother nature is giving us a break this year.
Thanks GOD!
A lot of time to watch Football. LoL
LOL I posted it earlier. 2009 is anomaly and low seasonal activity was not contributed by El Nino alone. It coincided with an array of conditions that caused not only the Atlantic to suffer low activity but the entire globe. The fact of the matter is that El Nino coincided with a global TC anomaly which created a double negative over the Atlantic Basin. As quiet as 2006 was, it was more active now than 2009.
The global low activity has also affected the Eastern and central pacific which is suppose to be above average during El Nino years. The intra-seasonal variables like the MJO have just been having weak signals this yr.
Catch you all soon.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/archive/1980s/
I'll take a quiet year any time. One rebuild of my home is enough LOL.
lol
Viewing: 551 - 601
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 — Blog Index