Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Never mind, link not working properly

ok gotcha now

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I tried to post the animation from today, but for some reason it's stuck on last Feb. Anyway, it's past my bedtime :) Night y'all.

have a good one, in Lac La Belle MI, the pressure is 984.8 right now link

And I think PAGASA must remove their system of "signal numbers". They raise signals on where the center of the storm will hit, not the rain or wind different places will encounter.

For example, Ketsana's heavy rainbands are more in the south of the center of the storm. Thus, high signals raised on those places encounter weaker wind and rain while the places placed on lower signals received very heavy rains, in this case Metro Manila. This is why they didn't expect these floods.

Quick forecasts on WP cyclones:

Typhoon Ketsana:
Ketsana is moving toward the west at 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days and Ketsana could make landfall near Hue,Vietnam by Tuesday morning.

Tropical Depression 18W:
Eighteen-W is moving erratically, but generally toward the southwest at 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days and Eighteen-W is expected to be near the Marianas by Tuesday night.

Tropical Depression 19W:
Nineteen-W is moving toward the west at 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. This motion is expected to continue for the next 36 to 48 hours, followed by a turn towards the northwest, then north-northwest. Nineteen is expected to pass over the island of Yap by early Tuesday morning.

Times in EDT(UTC-4)

Going to bed now. Night.

522
TCNA21 RJTD 280600
CCAA 28060 47644 KETSANA(0916) 20158 11119 12344 250// 92609=

6:00 AM UTC September 28 2009

TY Ketsana (0916) [System #20]
15.8N 111.9E
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

---
quite an intensification in 6hr period

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TYPHOON KETSANA (T0916)
15:00 PM JST September 28 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Ketsana (965 hPa) located at 15.8N 111.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Size of Typhoon: Large

Storm-Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
475 NM from the center in south quadrant
375 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 16.6N 109.3E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.6N 107.8E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm
72 HRS: 16.6N 106.4E - Tropical Depression

Amazing that its the last week in September and the tropics are flat lined in the Atlantic.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST September 28 2009
================================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near The Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 9.4N 143.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 8 knots

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
256 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

...DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE
OVER OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CAA AND SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE MAY BECOME
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OUTPUT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE LOW 50S OVER THE INLAND LOCATIONS AND AROUND OR
JUST BELOW 60 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL BE THE COOLEST
NIGHT OF THE SEASON.

Good Morning Ike. I heard it will be cooling off up there mid week !

Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning Ike. I heard it will be cooling off up there mid week !

Yes...

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. West northwest wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 50.

00Z ECMWF....doesn't show much through October 8th.

Looks like a 2nd frontal passage here the end of the week...

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BEGIN AS WEAK OMEGA BLOCK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EVOLVING INTO A WEAK REX BLOCK BY THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE MORE DYNAMIC WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE... SHOWING MORE QPF THAN ECMWF. WILL BLEND THE
TWO MODELS FOR POP FORECAST.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. MEX FORECASTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY...HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO RISE...PUSHING TEMPS BACK JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

Typhoon Ketsana:

(I'll have a full graphics update this afternoon):

Good Morning all

Blog Update

The power of rainfall

Good Morning 456

Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning 456

morning fellow blogger.

I hope Vietnam is prepared...cat 2 winds expected to affect the region. But look at how weird the track is at the end of the forecast cycle. It goes back over the Bay of Bengal. This is not totally far-fetch. Some of the sources of Bay of Bengal cyclones are the remnants of Pacific ones. There is also an invest in the BOB

tornadodude - I'll take the 50 degree temps.

456 - Ketsana's taking the vietnam to India route... It would be wierd if it is able to regenerate after going over that much land. Looking at google earth, it isn't exactly all flat either.

"Lake Superior, they say, never gives up her dead, when the Gales of November come early".

Gordon Lightfoot, Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald



Link

Tropical Storm/Hurricane Climatology
Mainland South Florida - October


In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Tropical Storm/Hurricane Climatology
Mainland South Florida - October


In fact, since 1851 more hurricanes have struck the south Florida mainland in October than in any other month of the season.

With the presence of a moderate nino we should not have much to worry about in southeast florida this october.

Looks like december/january out there.

Thanks NRt just what we needed to know!

In fact the rainy season should be over tomorrow for much of Florida as the first front of the fall season plows into the state.

Quoting hurricane23:
In fact the rainy season should be over tomorrow for much of Florida as the first front of the fall season plows into the state.

and the rainy season this starting for the West cost

Quoting Progster:
"Lake Superior, they say, never gives up her dead, when the Gales of November come early".

Gordon Lightfoot, Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald



Link

Strange that you bring that up. By the looks of the satelitte, Thunder Bay has a pretty strong low pressure this morning.