Philippines death toll from Ketsana rises to 140; Vietnam the typhoon's next target
The Philippine Islands continue to count the dead in the wake of the catastrophe left by Tropical Storm Ketsana on Saturday. Hard-hit was the capital of Manila, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). In the six hours between 8am and 2pm local time on the 25th, Manila recorded 13.4 inches of rain--over 2.2 inches per hour. There rainfall rates were observable via satellite observations from NASA's TRMM satellite, well in advance of when the storm made landfall in the Philippines (Figure 2). The TRMM satellite showed a small core of heavy rain in excess of 1.6 inches per hours near the center of Ketsana, and this core moved directly over the city of Manila.
Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.
The flooding from Ketsana's rains was the worst in at least 42 years in Manila, and President Gloria Arroyo called Ketsana "a once-in-a-lifetime typhoon". At least 140 people are dead, 32 missing, and up to 450,000 homeless from the flooding in the Philippines.
Ketsana is not finished yet. The typhoon has begun a period of rapid intensification, and is now on the verge of attaining Category 2 typhoon status as it approaches a Tuesday landfall in Vietnam. Ketsana's heavy rains and high winds could exact a high toll in Vietnam.
Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite, a few hours before the heavy rainfall began in Manila. Note the small core of heavy rain with rainfall rates off-scale (greater than 1.6 inches/hour) to the east of Manila. This region of heavy rain passed directly over the city between 8am and 2pm local time on 9/25/09. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..
Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Oh I will.
Cold front has made it down to central-Alabama. It'll be here by sunset....
yeah, it is pretty intense
ABPW10 PGTW 281730 2009271 1710
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/281730Z-290600ZSEP2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281353ZSEP2009//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281352ZSEP2009//
REF/C/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZSEP2009//
NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 281200Z, TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
9.3N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, AND HAD
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 281200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) AT 281200Z, TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N
111.0E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF HUE VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110
KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0N
168.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 165.1E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALAIN. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING ABOUT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 281434Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FORMING
ALONG FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC.
A 280651Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20KT UNFLAGGED WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPRGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR
AND UPDATED AREAS IN PARA 1.//
WXTLIST: done
Winds have picked up here from the west. Gusting to 20 mph. Leaves and acorns are falling off of the trees.
yeah, pretty dang windy here too
AXPZ20 KNHC 281603 2009271 1604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 28 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 85W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS ALONG 08N86W TO 13N104W TO 13N115W TO 15N128W TO
14N138W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE WAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
TO THIS AREA...AND COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE S AMERICAN
MONSOONAL CIRCULATION AS MUCH AS A TROPICAL WAVE.
...DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
LARGE SW-NE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N138W WITH ASSOCIATED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW N OF
18-20N BETWEEN 120W AND 150W. THE TYPICAL BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE COOL WATERS OF THE PACIFIC...CURRENTLY N OF 20N
AND W OF 134W...IS BEING ENHANCED UNDERNEATH THE SE QUADRANT OF
THIS UPPER LOW...YIELDING SCATTERED AREAS OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND STRATIFORM PRECIP...POSSIBLY WITH VERY ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION...N OF 24N AND BETWEEN 130N AND 139W. AN ASSOCIATED
55-65 KT SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...EXTENDING THROUGH 21N129W TO 29N114W. THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WILL DIG SLOWLY SE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SSW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A BROAD OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID LATITUDES OF
N AMERICA. THIS PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALSO PREVENT THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH FROM REBUILDING SUBSTANTIALLY OVER NW WATERS AND SHOULD
GENERALLY KEEP TRADE WINDS LIGHT.
DOWNSTREAM...A RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED SE OF
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WWD ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND THEN SW UNDERNEATH THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE TO ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N150W.
GENERALLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS COULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND ACROSS THE NW AND NRN FLANKS OF
THE RIDGE...JUST SE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A TUTT LOW WAS
EVIDENT ALONG 94W MOVING W ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND IGNITING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS THE
EPAC IN ITS SE QUADRANT.
A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FROM ACROSS THE
FAR W CARIB...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THEN S CENTRAL MEXICO AND
THE ADJACENT PACIFIC HAS AIDED IN THE INITIATION OF A LARGE
CLUSTER OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE W COAST OF MEXICO
THAT HAS LINGERED THROUGH THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH EXCELLENT
UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH 21N105W...PART OF
THE ABOVE UPPER RIDGE. BROAD AND WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS ALSO INITIATING
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 109W. GLOBAL
MODELS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING IN RECENT DAYS THAT THIS AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING AND ACTIVE CONVECTION MAY YIELD AN ORGANIZED
LOW IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE
WNW. SOME OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS ASSUMED TO HAVE ORIGINATED OVER AFRICA AND WAS A
PORTION OF A LONG AGO FRACTURED TROPICAL WAVE.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDED FROM A 1041 MB LOW
NEAR 45N157W SE TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N11W. THE
REMNANT LOW OF NORA...1009 MB...WAS CENTERED NEAR
17.5N130W...MOVING SLOWLY WSW...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.
THE ITCZ CONTINUED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS SEVERAL ZONES IN
THE AREA...UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEVERAL WAVES AND
PERTURBATIONS WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ...A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 85W...ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 105/106W...THE REMNANT LOW OF
NORA ALONG 130W...AND ANOTHER ALONG 139W.
$$
STRIPLING
WXTLIST: done
Don't know where you saw that, but don't hold your breath. 60 is likely...40? Fuggedaboudit.
60?
Its forecasted to be a low of 62 in Central Florida on Wednesday night, so yea I could see 40s further north
the coolest I see is 57. 60 pretty much all across the board for Slidell link
Hurricane Season will be over in 2 months ;)
Wind here is sustained at 30 mph gusts to 43 mph
From Wikipedia:
The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on June 1 and will end on November 30.
There is your answer
i'm sure other people with take "what", but i'll take "pretty much"! LOL
Typhoon Ketsana STORM TRACK:
Tropical Storm Nineteen STORM TRACK:
Tropical Depression Eighteen STORM TRACK:
there's a difference between when a season is officially over, and when it's over for all practical purposes.
take, for example, the tampa bay buccaneers. their season is over for all practical purposes, but officially it goes on for another 13 weeks plus a bye week.
same here in the northeast,thats all I've seen is cold fronts
I have three names for you:
Juan
Kate
Wilma
All three bad storms, all three after October 15th of their repsective years...Juan and Kate were after significant cold fronts had traversed the Southeast and Wilma after the temps in SE Louisiana (where I was living at the time) were averaging the mid 50s every day...I'm definitely a "what" man
remember a storm not to far ago.."wilma" hitting sfla oct 26.....hurricane season till nov.30
Hey,Flood,
Some people need to keep getting reminded,things can happen even in October.Even if its been a quiet season.All it takes is one period when the environment gets less hostile.
Any recent info on 14N 69W? Looks suspect
Add Hazel to that list also
don't read too much into my post...it wasn't a prediction, just poking fun at the lack of coherence in the original post since the word "over" was omitted! LOL
:)
good afternoon :P
haha it feels amazing out, supposed to be 58 tomorrow, and a low of 40 thursday morning
haha time for a swim?
Afternoon. Is interesting looking but, shear..
Link
What happened to the hippo?
Will feel for you while I'm in the pool and it's 75 out. :)
Just in case TS missed it. LOLOLOL.
haha nice!
haha yeah, and it will be 5 here with -30 windchill and ten inches of snow
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