Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:38 GMT le 08 octobre 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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852. hydrus
15:10 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting msphar:
Looks pretty calm on the blog. I enjoy this late fall like weather. Snow from 3 or 4 days ago still stubbornly clinging to the highest peaks. Another Atlantic hurricane season just about ended. Hank seemed to avoid the Eastern end of Puerto Rico thank goodness. Melor avoided family and property in Guam and cousins in Saipan. Out to the Big Island in a few days to check on things out there. Its been a great late summer/fall weatherwise. Looking forward to a long cold snowy brutal winter with occasional dashes to the tropics for sanity.
It is good to read a positive statement in the blog. Glad your family and cousins are well.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19504
851. IKE
13:24 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
850. AwakeInMaryland
13:18 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
...when everyone reads the newspaper

Orca?
Read?
Hard copy?
Not Crackberry?
Member Since: 19 août 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
849. msphar
13:18 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Looks pretty calm on the blog. I enjoy this late fall like weather. Snow from 3 or 4 days ago still stubbornly clinging to the highest peaks. Another Atlantic hurricane season just about ended. Hank seemed to avoid the Eastern end of Puerto Rico thank goodness. Melor avoided family and property in Guam and cousins in Saipan. Out to the Big Island in a few days to check on things out there. Its been a great late summer/fall weatherwise. Looking forward to a long cold snowy brutal winter with occasional dashes to the tropics for sanity.
Member Since: 20 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
848. Orcasystems
13:06 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting pottery:
AAAACCKKKK!!!@
Orca says "the calm before the storm"!!??
I better go and make sure that all my Storm Preparation stuff is in place as per Patrap's lists.-
But I just noticed that Orca did not say "when".
So I dont have to rush. 2012 is a long way away...
heheheheh


You always have to leave yourself an out :)
I expect the Blog to go a little nuts later today when everyone reads the newspaper..so it might be a good idea to just sit back and watch.
Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
847. Chicklit
12:59 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Will be interesting to see if 92L can pull away from land. There is no shear immediately ahead if it does.
Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11035
846. pottery
12:58 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
AAAACCKKKK!!!@
Orca says "the calm before the storm"!!??
I better go and make sure that all my Storm Preparation stuff is in place as per Patrap's lists.-
But I just noticed that Orca did not say "when".
So I dont have to rush. 2012 is a long way away...
heheheheh
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
845. nrtiwlnvragn
12:57 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Henri remnant on PR radar
Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10459
844. IKE
12:52 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Accuweather....

"Last Update: 9-OCT-2009 07:33am EDT

The remnants of Tropical Depression Henri are located about 250 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico this morning, near 21 north and 63 west. The area of low pressure is moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph. The remnant low remains in a hostile environment as it is in the midst of strong, westerly wind shear. The leftover wave will still cause pulses of convection and could maintain a low-level center of circulation over the next several days. High pressure aloft currently building over Florida will shift to the northeast of the Bahamas today and then remain nearly stationary through the weekend. This will steer the system more to the west, and it will probably remain to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the weekend.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave located along 61 west, south of 15 north, is tracking westward at 15 knots. This wave is bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms to Trinidad this morning and then unsettled weather to the Lesser Antilles today. Another tropical wave is located along 80 west, south of 16 north, tracking to the west at 18 mph. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into tonight. Another wave is over the open Atlantic along 28 west, south of 15 north, moving to the west near 20 mph. None of these waves are expected to develop over the next couple of days.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer"
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843. nrtiwlnvragn
12:52 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10459
842. kmanislander
12:51 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Have to go now. Will be back later
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
841. kmanislander
12:50 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20091009 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 62.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 59.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 56.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


SHIPS


That SHIPS run is about 2 degrees higher than late yesterday.
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
840. kmanislander
12:47 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
10.8 looks right for the lat. but 62.6 looks to be a little far W to me. I would have thought 61.6 based upon the first few visible images. It is lifting away from the land though.
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839. ElConando
12:46 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Is there a light upswing in mjo today? or is it still going down?
Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
838. Orcasystems
12:46 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting pottery:
.....and winds are Calm, all across the Island.


OK, I have to say it... the calm before the storm :)

Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
837. pottery
12:43 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
.....and winds are Calm, all across the Island.
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
836. ElConando
12:43 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting futuremet:
Most intense MJO I have seen all season...



That will help the Central Atlantic wave greatly.
Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
835. Orcasystems
12:41 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting kmanislander:


That it may but it also has an anticyclone that has set up right overhead. The 850 mb vorticity is there as well so this one could be another fighter.


Its there... but not very strong now.

Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
834. nrtiwlnvragn
12:40 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20091009 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 62.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 59.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 56.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


SHIPS
Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10459
833. kmanislander
12:40 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting pottery:
Pressure 29.96, or 1015.
Check PIARCO in the box above.


That's high. A good sign, at least for now.
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
832. TheCaneWhisperer
12:39 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Lil Henri making a comeback?

Shear very low, Subsidence very high. Never know though.
831. pottery
12:38 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Pressure 29.96, or 1015.
Check PIARCO in the box above.
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
830. TheCaneWhisperer
12:36 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting futuremet:
Most intense MJO I have seen all season...



That's not something you like to see heading into the second mini-peak of the season, especially in the Western Caribbean. There is a little hope though. Most of the other pulses either didn't happen or were weaker than expected.
829. kmanislander
12:36 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting pottery:
Torrential rain in the last 1/2 hour easing off now. Looks like we will have a lovely day!


Hi Pottery, what is the pressure there now ?. TIA
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828. pottery
12:35 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Torrential rain in the last 1/2 hour easing off now. Looks like we will have a lovely day!
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
827. BobinTampa
12:35 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Hows this for Baseball weather!!!
Denver tomorrow night!!!



9News chief meteorologist Kathy Sabine looks at the early forecast for Saturday night's Game 3:

Football weather for baseball fans Saturday night at Coors Field. Get set for another cold, damp night with the arrival of a second arctic cold front during the day Saturday. Around first pitch at 7:37 p.m., it will be cloudy and cold with freezing drizzle and flurries possible. Winds will be light out of the east 5-10 mph, and temperatures will tumble out of the mid-30s into the upper 20s and lower 30s during the game.



I hope the Rockies make the World Series. We'll see how baseball works in Denver in early November.
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826. kmanislander
12:34 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


If it doesn't get some sea room very soon... I think its going to have a terminal case of landfall intteruptis.


That it may but it also has an anticyclone that has set up right overhead. The 850 mb vorticity is there as well so this one could be another fighter.
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
825. superpete
12:33 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting kmanislander:


I don't see a closed low but lines of convergence stretching over approximately 5 degrees of longitude. It does however look like it may become an Invest later today if it continues to maintain that deep convection.
Back to wait and watch mode on this one next then.
Member Since: 10 octobre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
824. Orcasystems
12:32 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning everyone.

It is perhaps a good thing that 92L is so close to land. It has slowed considerably and looks as if it would organise in short order if it had some sea room to work with.

It will be interesting to see what happens when it gets a little further W near Margarita Island. At that position the land moves away some to the SW of the current motion of the system and may allow for slow strengthening.


If it doesn't get some sea room very soon... I think its going to have a terminal case of landfall intteruptis.
Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
823. PensacolaDoug
12:30 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Hows this for Baseball weather!!!
Denver tomorrow night!!!



9News chief meteorologist Kathy Sabine looks at the early forecast for Saturday night's Game 3:

Football weather for baseball fans Saturday night at Coors Field. Get set for another cold, damp night with the arrival of a second arctic cold front during the day Saturday. Around first pitch at 7:37 p.m., it will be cloudy and cold with freezing drizzle and flurries possible. Winds will be light out of the east 5-10 mph, and temperatures will tumble out of the mid-30s into the upper 20s and lower 30s during the game.

Member Since: 25 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
822. kmanislander
12:30 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting stoormfury:
area 9N 32W is showing that there could be a closed low according to latest QS, winds are in the 30 knots range. this could well be 93L today


I don't see a closed low but lines of convergence stretching over approximately 5 degrees of longitude. It does however look like it may become an Invest later today if it continues to maintain that deep convection.
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
821. superpete
12:29 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting P451:


It will be interesting to see if the area stormpetrol showed at 8N 35W follows a similar path to 92L?
Member Since: 10 octobre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
820. stoormfury
12:27 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
area 9N 32W is showing that there could be a closed low according to latest QS, winds are in the 30 knots range. this could well be 93L today
Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
819. kmanislander
12:25 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Good morning everyone.

It is perhaps a good thing that 92L is so close to land. It has slowed considerably and looks as if it would organise in short order if it had some sea room to work with.

It will be interesting to see what happens when it gets a little further W near Margarita Island. At that position the land moves away some to the SW of the current motion of the system and may allow for slow strengthening.
Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
818. TheCaneWhisperer
12:25 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting leftovers:
graph says mojo i look visiable no mojo


Analysis shows subsidence, which the visible shows as well with HP built in. The MJO pulse is not forecast to take shape until the 13th in the posted graphic.
817. Orcasystems
12:17 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Quoting pottery:
Well I was wrong!
Thought that 92L would pass to the north of Trinidad and affect Barbados last night.
This morning's images are a surprise, with that small, round ball of weather sitting right overhead.
Rained all night, but not heavy, and no wind. Rainfall at my location overnight almost 2" and coming down harder now.


You have more coming by the looks also :)

Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
816. Orcasystems
12:15 GMT le 09 octobre 2009



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
815. pottery
12:14 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Well I was wrong!
Thought that 92L would pass to the north of Trinidad and affect Barbados last night.
This morning's images are a surprise, with that small, round ball of weather sitting right overhead.
Rained all night, but not heavy, and no wind. Rainfall at my location overnight almost 2" and coming down harder now.
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
812. futuremet
12:10 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Most intense MJO I have seen all season...

Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
810. TheCaneWhisperer
12:01 GMT le 09 octobre 2009
Morning All.

Local MET said the models are waffling and the front expected to cool us off in FL next week is delayed till the middle to end of the week, if at all. Cited a regular occurrence of troughs being delayed more and more until they never come.

They can take El Nino and shove it where the sun doesn't shine. El Nino is behaving exactly opposite as it should in my area.

We Need some rain in these parts. Heading into dry season, could spell trouble next spring.



808. stormpetrol
11:56 GMT le 09 octobre 2009

Strong winds in this area of disturbed weather, low lat, but might have a closed low.
Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
804. IKE
11:50 GMT le 09 octobre 2009



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI ARE LOCATED ABOUT
200 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT.
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT INTERACTS WITH
NORTHERN VENEZUELA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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