Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Super Hurricane Rick the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in Eastern Pacific

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:27 GMT le 18 octobre 2009

Hurricane Rick intensified in dramatic fashion yesterday into the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Truly deserving of the title "Super Hurricane", Rick grew into a monstrous Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 906 mb early this morning. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970. Meteorologists like to talk about a hurricane's Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI), the theoretical upper limit of a hurricane's intensification given the prevailing ocean heat content and atmospheric stability and moisture. Less than 5% of all hurricane reach their MPI, due to wind shear, interaction with land, entrainment of dry air, or other factors. Hurricane Rick was able to take advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification--light wind shear, high ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level atmospheric moisture--to reach its MPI and intensify into one of the strongest and most spectacular tropical cyclones ever recorded. The last tropical cyclone to attain Rick's intensity was Australia's Cyclone Monica of 2006, which also had 180 mph winds. Only nine Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history have been stronger than Rick.

Figure 1.Hurricane Rick at peak intensity on Sunday morning, October 18, 2009: 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb.

Wind shear will gradually increase and ocean heat content decrease over the next few days as Rick approaches Baja, and the hurricane should weaken considerably before landfall on Wednesday. The latest GFDL model run puts Rick at Category 2 strength, but Rick could still be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall, as predicted by the HWRF model. More rapid weakening into a Category 1 hurricane is also a distinct possibility, and the official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 2 forecast at landfall is a good middle-of-the-road forecast. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Thursday, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Saturday, possibly leading to heavy rains there next weekend.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major catastrophe for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit is stalled out over the Philippine Sea east of northern Luzon Island in the Philippines, but is expected to resume a westerly track towards the Philippines on Monday. Depending upon whether the storm makes landfall in northern Luzon or not, Lupit (the Filipino word for cruel) has the potential to live up to its name if it makes landfall as a major typhoon on Thursday, as currently forecast. A week ago, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit would bring another 12+ inches of rain to the already-soaked soils of the region, creating a major catastrophe. However, there is hope that storm's current slow and erratic movement will carry Lupit far enough north that the typhoon will miss the Philippines.

Early snow in Northeast U.S. sets records
This weekend's snowstorm in the Northeast set records for the earliest date with an inch of snow in Binghamton, Ithaca and Olean in New York and Altoona and State College in Pennsylvania. State College received 4.8 inches of snow from the storm, and snow amounts as high as ten inches were recorded in the surrounding mountains.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned.

Jeff Masters

Pink Snow (CecileWNC)

The first dusting of snow in the Blue Ridge Mountains today!

The Snowy Poconos (robin57)

Woke up and saw SNOW everywhere ....it is too early but we have to make the best out of the situation and I did just that ...I went picture taking today ENJOY my friends So i hope you like my have fall half winter photo

Penn State, Bryce Jordan Center (SoggyWaffles)

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601. pearlandaggie 01:13 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
596. now that's cold...i think you'd be surprised how old i'm not! i just remember that show from TBS reruns during the summertime growing up...never saw it real-time! LOL i don't recall exactly what year that policy changed, but i think i was born after the change! Member Since: 14 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

602. atmoaggie 01:13 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: Interesting surface obs...if that west wind persist then we have low pressure, it could be an isolated obs. I wonder why that one has so few obs compared to this one. This url will have an updated plot every hour. (Best viewed in full size...click) Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

603. AwakeInMaryland 01:13 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie: 534. i've got a 6'x4' blowup of you (i.e., Press) in a miniskirt hanging outside my door. that ought to scare off trick-or-treaters, door-to-door salesmen, meter readers and the Jehovah's witnesses! LOL A New Portlight Fundraiser! Aggie, did you know you're a marketing geen-yus! Might have to put PG-13 or R warning label on it, though. Member Since: 19 août 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

604. tornadodude 01:14 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting JLPR: yeah very warm 70s lol I cant live that far north, gotta stay in the tropics to be happy xD haha cant blame you! although I love the snow :P Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

605. BahaHurican 01:14 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting JLPR: xD when it drops to the 60s in the morn here typically in January, I always put a jacket on :) I don't like too cold nor to hot xD LOL low 60s is hat/scarf/gloves weather here in the Bahamas... lol though typically we don't see that until mid December and January... and nighttime lows in the 50s (which are not uncommon in the NW Bahamas) are grounds to pull out a space heater and multiple blankets... I'm sure parts of PR see those kinds of temps in the winter.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17610

606. Orcasystems 01:14 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Seismic Monitor AOI AOI Humor in Comments Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

607. HIEXPRESS 01:14 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Various & Sundry on a Sunday MJO Q?: When talking velocity potential anomalies, (+) doesn't necessarily mean ascent - sinking air (like over my house)is just not sinking as fast? Understatement of the week: "The MJO may contribute to suppressed convection over the Maritime Continent, increase the odds for tropical cyclone development in the east Pacific, and enhance rainfall in Central America – especially during Week-2." Ya Think? I don't wear tank tops("or other, less-flattering names! LOL") but I wear tech singlets on occasion. I have only had one WU account. I cannot think of a good reason for having more than one (except I can't get rid of those darn CAPS). HIExpress Member Since: 13 octobre 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2153

608. stormwatcherCI 01:15 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: LOL low 60s is hat/scarf/gloves weather here in the Bahamas... lol though typically we don't see that until mid December and January... and nighttime lows in the 50s (which are not uncommon in the NW Bahamas) are grounds to pull out a space heater and multiple blankets... I'm sure parts of PR see those kinds of temps in the winter.... About 10-15 years ago it actually got down in the upper 40's one night. We don't have space heaters so it was not nice. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

609. Cavin Rawlins 01:15 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting atmoaggie: I wonder why that one has so few obs compared to this one. This url will have an updated plot every hour. (Best viewed in full size...click) The obs in the SW Caribbean/CA looks almost the same in the two images. What is the difference you are seeing? Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

610. pearlandaggie 01:16 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
603. i just wanted some privacy, that's all! LOL i can't think of anything scarier to put up this Halloween! hehehe...that HAS to be the epitome of scary! Member Since: 14 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

611. JLPR 01:17 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: LOL low 60s is hat/scarf/gloves weather here in the Bahamas... lol though typically we don't see that until mid December and January... and nighttime lows in the 50s (which are not uncommon in the NW Bahamas) are grounds to pull out a space heater and multiple blankets... I'm sure parts of PR see those kinds of temps in the winter.... we get 30s in the mountains xD but I live closer to the coast Self reminder:(never visit the mountains in January!) lol Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

612. kingzfan104 01:18 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: LOL low 60s is hat/scarf/gloves weather here in the Bahamas... lol though typically we don't see that until mid December and January... and nighttime lows in the 50s (which are not uncommon in the NW Bahamas) are grounds to pull out a space heater and multiple blankets... I'm sure parts of PR see those kinds of temps in the winter.... dude, are you freaking kidding me? your a wimp, lol. Member Since: 16 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

613. stormwatcherCI 01:18 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Really blowing up now. Don't like the looks of this. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

614. pearlandaggie 01:19 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
out for good...later! Member Since: 14 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

615. atmoaggie 01:19 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Full column of atmospheric moisture anyone? From Panama: Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

616. tornadodude 01:19 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie: out for good...later! for good? lol Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

618. Cavin Rawlins 01:21 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting atmoaggie: Full column of atmospheric moisture anyone? From Panama: a deep moisture layer is characteristic of tropical climate, it is one of the factor that maintains frequent thunderstorms. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

619. BahaHurican 01:22 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI: About 10-15 years ago it actually got down in the upper 40's one night. We don't have space heaters so it was not nice. Yeah, we get those a few times a decade, so most pple have no insulation in roofs etc the way they have in most of the US. Most pple go the blanket route; those space heaters can be dangerous. Reminds me: sometime this week I need to pull out and air my blankets. Haven't seen them since Feb or March.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17610

620. atmoaggie 01:22 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: The obs in the SW Caribbean/CA looks almost the same in the two images. What is the difference you are seeing? That one I posted has a few more on the isthmus and in SA...towards the edges of the other... We both had the notion to look up the surface ob plot at about the same time ;-) Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

621. foggymyst 01:23 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Hey there Orca..enjoying the cold front we just had.. :) How are you? How are the tropics? Trying to understand what Dr. Masters wrote. Member Since: 23 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383

622. atmoaggie 01:24 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: a deep moisture layer is characteristic of tropical climate, it is one of the factor that maintains frequent thunderstorms. Yeah, but we have seen plenty of soundings from the tropics this season that had thin layers of very dry air. This from Belize...looks fairly ripe, too. No inhibiting dry layer... Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

623. BahaHurican 01:26 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting JLPR: we get 30s in the mountains xD but I live closer to the coast Self reminder:(never visit the mountains in January!) lol LOL, my thoghts exactly.... I figured there had to be some colder temps in the mtns because of the height. Last time I was in PR I found coastal temps were pretty much what we see here. I don't mind seeing snow, but 3 years of cold in NC made me quite happy to remain in warmer areas. Even Orlando in Jan is pretty much on the cold side for me these days.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17610

624. Orcasystems 01:26 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting foggymyst: Hey there Orca..enjoying the cold front we just had.. :) How are you? How are the tropics? Trying to understand what Dr. Masters wrote. Basically... you can expect to MAYBE see something later this week or earlier next week. I think the only places he did not say were NOLA and Texas... but basically touched on the rest. Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

625. Cavin Rawlins 01:26 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting atmoaggie: Yeah, but we have seen plenty of soundings from the tropics this season that had thin layers of very dry air. This from Belize...looks fairly ripe, too. No inhibiting dry layer... true. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

626. BahaHurican 01:28 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting kingzfan104: dude, are you freaking kidding me? your a wimp, lol. Hey, when u can come here in the middle of summer and wear coatsuit and jacket without sweating, then u call me a wimp.... lol.... there are cold wx wimps and hot wx wimps, I suppose.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17610

627. tornadodude 01:29 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: Hey, when u can come here in the middle of summer and wear coatsuit and jacket without sweating, then u call me a wimp.... lol.... there are cold wx wimps and hot wx wimps, I suppose.... wimp-casters? Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

628. GeoffreyWPB 01:29 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Remember, Dr. Masters wrote his blog before the ECMWF pretty much dropped the system. Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9110

629. GeoffreyWPB 01:31 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
I know...one run, wait and see. Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9110

630. kingzfan104 01:31 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: Hey, when u can come here in the middle of summer and wear coatsuit and jacket without sweating, then u call me a wimp.... lol.... there are cold wx wimps and hot wx wimps, I suppose.... are you outside all day in that coat suit and jacket? i dont think so. if 78 is cold to you that is pretty pathetic, no offense Member Since: 16 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

631. BahaHurican 01:31 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting tornadodude: wimp-casters? LOL, I suppose.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17610

632. foggymyst 01:31 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Guess it just to wait and see and enjoy the cool down. -Thanks. Member Since: 23 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 383

633. kingzfan104 01:31 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
when are the next model runs? Member Since: 16 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

634. GeoffreyWPB 01:32 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
BTW....Has StormW been on today? Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9110

635. Orcasystems 01:33 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
New Generic catch all Blog_Casters. Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

636. stormwatcherCI 01:33 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting kingzfan104: are you outside all day in that coat suit and jacket? i dont think so. if 78 is cold to you that is pretty pathetic, no offense Well, it is cold to me too and it is not pathetic when you are used to temps in the 90's and 80's at night. What is pathetic is your attitude about something so simple. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

638. BahaHurican 01:35 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Kings, I guess it's what ur used to. To me, 78 is winter. Guess that's why they say "perception is reality".... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17610

639. atmoaggie 01:35 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting tornadodude: for good? lol No, he is just teasing us. I was reluctant to post the following, but felt it needed saying. JFV (and other of his personalities) hit my iggy list, along with fully half of the other names on my iggy list, when he became the primary topic of conversation. I am not the weather-related-post Czar, but I surely do not visit to talk endlessly about the posters, especially the ones I can do without altogether (which, I guess, is most). That includes the pot shots, mockery, and smart alec questions directed at another blogger. I'll only read so many words in this lifetime and prefer to use that limited well on something besides a not useful poster and the long since ceased-to-be funny diatribes towards or about him/her. I see that which I usually click "Ignore" for was well rampant here today. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

640. Stormchaser2007 01:35 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
The NHC might have to introduce this in the TWO within the next 24 hours. Larger image Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

641. JLPR 01:35 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Well, it is cold to me too and it is not pathetic when you are used to temps in the 90's and 80's at night. What is pathetic is your attitude about something so simple. that one is in my ignore list, there must be a reason for it xD, I only have like 3 in there xD Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

643. kingzfan104 01:36 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Well, it is cold to me too and it is not pathetic when you are used to temps in the 90's and 80's at night. What is pathetic is your attitude about something so simple. i live in broward county. i have the same temps. its not cold for me until about the low 40's. Member Since: 16 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

644. JupiterFL 01:37 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting kingzfan104: are you outside all day in that coat suit and jacket? i dont think so. if 78 is cold to you that is pretty pathetic, no offense Pathetic like the Kings? Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

645. stormwatcherCI 01:38 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting kingzfan104: i live in broward county. i have the same temps. its not cold for me until about the low 40's. But you get those temps a lot more often than we in the tropics do. It might get in the high 60's to mid 70's once or twice in winter. We are used to hotter temps and I don't think you would enjoy the heat anymore than we enjoy the cold. Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

647. kingzfan104 01:41 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI: But you get those temps a lot more often than we in the tropics do. It might get in the high 60's to mid 70's once or twice in winter. We are used to hotter temps and I don't think you would enjoy the heat anymore than we enjoy the cold. what are you talking about? i have the same heat temps here, possibly even hotter since im inland a little. Member Since: 16 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

649. kmanislander 01:42 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quikscat showing a wind shift close to the Nicaraguan shore Low pressure in the area. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

650. OracleDeAtlantis 01:42 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Shear outlook improving quickly, vorticity, upper and lower level convergence/divergence, respectively. This one appears be cleared for launch. Prepare for takeoff? Member Since: 27 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 286

651. kingzfan104 01:43 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting JupiterFL: Pathetic like the Kings? congrats. i dont even like the kings. i made this screenname because i liked chris webber and mike bibby when i was like 4, hence the name 104. but way to jump in our conversation anyway. Member Since: 16 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

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