Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Super Hurricane Rick the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in Eastern Pacific

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:27 GMT le 18 octobre 2009

Hurricane Rick intensified in dramatic fashion yesterday into the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Truly deserving of the title "Super Hurricane", Rick grew into a monstrous Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 906 mb early this morning. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970. Meteorologists like to talk about a hurricane's Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI), the theoretical upper limit of a hurricane's intensification given the prevailing ocean heat content and atmospheric stability and moisture. Less than 5% of all hurricane reach their MPI, due to wind shear, interaction with land, entrainment of dry air, or other factors. Hurricane Rick was able to take advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification--light wind shear, high ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level atmospheric moisture--to reach its MPI and intensify into one of the strongest and most spectacular tropical cyclones ever recorded. The last tropical cyclone to attain Rick's intensity was Australia's Cyclone Monica of 2006, which also had 180 mph winds. Only nine Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history have been stronger than Rick.

Figure 1.Hurricane Rick at peak intensity on Sunday morning, October 18, 2009: 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb.

Wind shear will gradually increase and ocean heat content decrease over the next few days as Rick approaches Baja, and the hurricane should weaken considerably before landfall on Wednesday. The latest GFDL model run puts Rick at Category 2 strength, but Rick could still be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall, as predicted by the HWRF model. More rapid weakening into a Category 1 hurricane is also a distinct possibility, and the official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 2 forecast at landfall is a good middle-of-the-road forecast. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Thursday, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Saturday, possibly leading to heavy rains there next weekend.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major catastrophe for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit is stalled out over the Philippine Sea east of northern Luzon Island in the Philippines, but is expected to resume a westerly track towards the Philippines on Monday. Depending upon whether the storm makes landfall in northern Luzon or not, Lupit (the Filipino word for cruel) has the potential to live up to its name if it makes landfall as a major typhoon on Thursday, as currently forecast. A week ago, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit would bring another 12+ inches of rain to the already-soaked soils of the region, creating a major catastrophe. However, there is hope that storm's current slow and erratic movement will carry Lupit far enough north that the typhoon will miss the Philippines.

Early snow in Northeast U.S. sets records
This weekend's snowstorm in the Northeast set records for the earliest date with an inch of snow in Binghamton, Ithaca and Olean in New York and Altoona and State College in Pennsylvania. State College received 4.8 inches of snow from the storm, and snow amounts as high as ten inches were recorded in the surrounding mountains.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned.

Jeff Masters

Pink Snow (CecileWNC)

The first dusting of snow in the Blue Ridge Mountains today!

The Snowy Poconos (robin57)

Woke up and saw SNOW everywhere ....it is too early but we have to make the best out of the situation and I did just that ...I went picture taking today ENJOY my friends So i hope you like my have fall half winter photo

Penn State, Bryce Jordan Center (SoggyWaffles)

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852. Drakoen 03:10 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

853. Cavin Rawlins 03:10 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: 831. Didn%u2019t Joe write that before the ECMWF dropped it? It was written this morning. I was not aware the ECMWF dropped it, just slowed down considerably. That said, I would look to see if this is one run or a pattern. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

854. BahaHurican 03:10 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Hard to believe Bastardi doesn't understand the simple code the TPC is using has a TIME limit of 48 hours.... isnt that still not Wednesday yet? Maybe at 2 a.m., but more likely at 8 a.m. they will do whatever upgrade..... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

855. 19N81W 03:10 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
well things sure have gotten red...its been raining in the Cayman for the past hour..which is great!..nhc not on board with this one...so I guess I wont worry about it... Member Since: 24 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 332

856. Grothar 03:11 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Hey Baha, jipmg Geoffrey and Weather! How have you all been. I really miss the blog. I hope to be returning permanently soon. How is the job going, TD, almost didn't recognize you. What's up with the shades?? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19487

857. PcolaDan 03:11 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

858. tornadodude 03:13 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting Grothar: Hey Baha, jipmg Geoffrey and Weather! How have you all been. I really miss the blog. I hope to be returning permanently soon. How is the job going, TD, almost didn't recognize you. What's up with the shades?? well I really love it, I am learning more at my job than in classes :P and the shades, wore them for some pictures we were taking for my band ha Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

859. jipmg 03:13 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: It was written this morning. I was not aware the ECMWF dropped it, just slowed down considerably. That said, I would look to see if this is one run or a pattern. so by noon sunday a 1007mb low is expected to form around the area that the convection is erupting based on that model

860. 19N81W 03:13 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
no chance of a hurricane in the Caribbean this year! right?... Member Since: 24 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 332

861. 789 03:13 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
ecmwf has done very well this year they dropped the low on the last model run this may have been a burp or something? Member Since: 18 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 255

862. Skyepony (Mod) 03:14 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
It seemed to me the 12zecmwf followed the cmc taking it into Central America before it developed. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29237

863. Grothar 03:14 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Went back to the Accuweather site and saw Joe Bastardi. At least he used the word "possibility" of a major Hurricane. I think he may have been a little behind the times. When I checked the ECMWF site, there was no feature there at all on October 27 as there was earlier. Did I miss something? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19487

864. GeoffreyWPB 03:14 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Hi Grothar...keep on missing you when you pop in. Hope everything is going well. Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

865. SevereHurricane 03:14 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
I could be wrong but this looks to me like 93L all over again. Member Since: 7 septembre 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

867. GeoffreyWPB 03:16 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting 19N81W: no chance of a hurricane in the Caribbean this year! right?... Have you read the previous posts. Some bloggers work hard to make their forecasts for all of us to read. Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

868. Drakoen 03:17 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Emphasis on the moisture: Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

869. SevereHurricane 03:17 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: Hard to believe Bastardi doesn't understand the simple code the TPC is using has a TIME limit of 48 hours.... isnt that still not Wednesday yet? Maybe at 2 a.m., but more likely at 8 a.m. they will do whatever upgrade..... You have a good point there. Member Since: 7 septembre 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

870. Cavin Rawlins 03:17 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting SevereHurricane: I could be wrong but this looks to me like 93L all over again. "looks like" and "what is" are two different things. These two are under different circumstances. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

871. winter123 03:17 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: That is mean looking... its bombing, i think i see a eye. cat 5 by morning!@ (jk) Member Since: 29 juillet 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

872. Grothar 03:18 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting PcolaDan: Here you go. This was the finale, 728. Weather456 9:13 PM CDT on October 18, 2009 Quoting AtlantaMET: You know I actually respected you but now you threathening me. Whoa! He had started off quite well on the blog, if I remember correctly. Didn't mean to ignore you PcolaDan. Didn't know you were on. Thanks. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19487

873. Cavin Rawlins 03:19 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting winter123: its bombing, i think i see a eye. cat 5 by morning!@ (jk) Since no one said the word of the day I will say it Wilma Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

874. Skyepony (Mod) 03:19 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
The outer left side of Rick has really weakened. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29237

875. 19N81W 03:19 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
for some reason none of the pros seem to think its going to amount to much... Member Since: 24 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 332

876. xcool 03:19 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Could Could Could start to get serious.imo!Flare off Nicaragua !! Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

877. SevereHurricane 03:19 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: "looks like" and "what is" are two different things. These two are under different circumstances. Thanks for the clarification. Conditions are a bit more favorable this time around. Member Since: 7 septembre 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604

879. BahaHurican 03:20 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Final observation before I head off to bed: I looked at our hourly observations for today and this is what I found: Time (EDT): Temp.: Dew Point: Humidity: 12:00 AM : 84.2 °F / 29.0 °C : 80.6 °F / 27.0 °C : 89% 11:00 PM : 75.2 °F / 24.0 °C : 60.8 °F / 16.0 °C : 61% That's almost 10 degrees of temp, but almost a 20 degree drop in the dewpoint. No wonder it feels so much cooler out there.... will prolly be downright chilly tomorrow a.m..... brrrrrr Good night to all, and to all a good night.... lol Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

880. 19N81W 03:20 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
456...why would you say that? I just said none of the pros are saying much...now you got me worried....thats ok we need the rain:) Member Since: 24 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 332

881. Grothar 03:21 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: Since no one said the word of the day I will say it Wilma I thought we weren't allowed to use the "W" word when mentioning storms in the Caribbean? You're a better man than I am, Gunga Din! Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19487

883. Grothar 03:22 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Nite Baha! Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19487

884. stormpetrol 03:22 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Wow!! Raining here in South Sound with thunder and lightning,SW Caribbean Blob looks impressive tonight, don't like the looks of this one, reminds of Wilma & Paloma all over again! Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6394

885. 19N81W 03:22 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
where is it headed guys? I know its just an area of Low pressure at the moment but kinda looks like its going wnw? Member Since: 24 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 332

886. 19N81W 03:23 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
paloma was tiny compared to this... Member Since: 24 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 332

887. winter123 03:23 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: Since no one said the word of the day I will say it Wilma pardon the ignorance, why is that the word of the day? Member Since: 29 juillet 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

888. PcolaDan 03:23 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting Grothar: no problemo Put it up so you could see. Took it back down now, needs to be forgotten. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

889. XL 03:23 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting 19N81W: where is it headed guys? I know its just an area of Low pressure at the moment but kinda looks like its going wnw? Hi Where in Grand Cayman are you? Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 91

890. Cavin Rawlins 03:24 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting 19N81W: 456...why would you say that? I just said none of the pros are saying much...now you got me worried....thats ok we need the rain:) I'm not calling for a next Wilma. The name Wilma is often used in these situations so I placed out there. Do as you please with it, lol. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

891. 19N81W 03:24 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
with shear values that high nothing will make it...how long are they supposed to be that high? Member Since: 24 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 332

892. JRRP 03:24 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting winter123: its bombing, i think i see a eye. cat 5 by morning!@ (jk) are you kidding ? Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4301

893. 19N81W 03:24 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
walkers rd. Member Since: 24 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 332

894. Cavin Rawlins 03:24 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting winter123: pardon the ignorance, why is that the word of the day? lol It was more of a joke, read post 809 Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

895. BahaHurican 03:25 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Hey, Grothar, just saw u here.... much prefer FTL to even the CONCEPT of Norway in November... lol Home u will get home soon, but hopefully NOT for a 'cane..... NIght! Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17588

897. winter123 03:26 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: lol It was more of a joke, read post 809 Yeah, i get it. You mean 890, right? (That's called dyslexia ^_^d Member Since: 29 juillet 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

898. XL 03:26 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting 19N81W: walkers rd. Hi I am up at Northwest point. The sea is mighty rough just now and it is raining cats and dogs. Some lightning but no thunder as yet. Member Since: 19 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 91

899. Cavin Rawlins 03:27 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting Meteorology101: Stop blowing his words out of context. What's gonna happen, is gonna happen. you kinda of quoting the wrong person, lol Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

900. Grothar 03:28 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Doesn't look like much to me! Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19487

901. AwakeInMaryland 03:28 GMT le 19 octobre 2009
Quoting GeoffreyWPB: Blog just reset itself...half of you are gone! Going back to reset settings. That's just Atmo's burgeoning "Ignore" list. Member Since: 19 août 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

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