Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Blog just reset itself...half of you are gone! Going back to reset settings.

That's just Atmo's burgeoning "Ignore" list.

Quoting StormW:

thank you!

ya we pretty much have a North Wester here tonight..the front went by us which is rare this time of year...should be cool in the morning which is a nice change...but the north winds will only last throught night back to the nne in the am just a bit early in the year for a full blown nwester(I think)...but setting up to pull all that moisture this way! maybe with a low attached...

Quoting Drakoen:
Emphasis on the moisture:

If it getting smaller?

When someone is put on "IGNORE", do their comments just not appear on ones screen or the entire blog. I have never put anyone on ignore. If I don't receive an answer, then I shall probably have received my answer!!!

Has anybody looked at the new 24/48/72 hr forecast maps from TAFB? They are putting our Twave in the EPac.... WELL into the EPac, in 24 hrs.... Didn't mean to come back in here, but something somebody said made me go look at it, and let's say, what a startling turn of events this could be!

If I put you on ignore, then everyone will see you, but I will not.

Quoting Grothar:
When someone is put on "IGNORE", do their comments just not appear on ones screen or the entire blog. I have never put anyone on ignore. If I don't receive an answer, then I shall probably have received my answer!!!

if you ignore someone it will only be on your screen

Quoting BahaHurican:
Has anybody looked at the new 24/48/72 hr forecast maps from TAFB? They are putting our Twave in the EPac.... WELL into the EPac, in 24 hrs.... Didn't mean to come back in here, but something somebody said made me go look at it, and let's say, what a startling turn of events this could be!

Welcome back Baha, but what are you talking about?

Quoting StormW:

StormW, whats your feeling on blow up in the SW Carib???

Thanks for the answers on the ignore question. My paranoia has lessened.

This pic was posted by Weather456 earlier...
I swear it looks like a guy holding up two fingers, kinda of what the peace sign or "V for Victory" sign would look from the POV of the person.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Has anybody looked at the new 24/48/72 hr forecast maps from TAFB? They are putting our Twave in the EPac.... WELL into the EPac, in 24 hrs.... Didn't mean to come back in here, but something somebody said made me go look at it, and let's say, what a startling turn of events this could be!

I actually suggested that yesterday and was pretty much shot down. I asked if it would do what ex-92L in the ATL did. That was Rick in the ATL.

Quoting Meteorology101:


My afult

No models develop any storms in the Atlantic in the next seven days JFV.

LavosPhoenix yeah lolol

I'm watching this spot in the western caribbean. Looks a little like Paloma

Quoting Meteorology101:


Hi

Hey, How have you been? Do you remember who said the season was over sometime last month? Haven't seen them on. What do you think of the feature in the Caribbean?

Quoting LavosPhoenix:


This pic was posted by Weather456 earlier...
I swear it looks like a guy holding up two fingers, kinda of what the peace sign or "V for Victory" sign would look from the POV of the person.

Also looks like a "Smiley Face" on the right, do you see it?

Quoting Grothar:


Also looks like a "Smiley Face" on the right, do you see it?

lmao, it does.

Quoting Grothar:
Thanks for the answers on the ignore question. My paranoia has lessened.

Hope I didn't cause paranoia before w/bad ignore list joke.

Ugh, we have freeze warnings tonight.
Saw pic of beach (lack of beach)in Atlantic City, NJ from N'oreaster. Terrible, and another one coming.

Quoting PcolaDan:

LOL!

The rainrate in the that blob is worse than Rick

Quoting PcolaDan:

How did you post that baby picture so quickly, too funny!!

Quoting Grothar:


Also looks like a "Smiley Face" on the right, do you see it?

Yeah, just another hilarious case of pareidolia in Weather, though this is just a coincidental mapping of relative humidity forecasts of the SW Caribbean AOI

Quoting Grothar:


How did you post that baby picture so quickly, too funny!!

Have couple of these things bookmarked and I have just been WAITING to use this one. Timing is everything.

Quoting PcolaDan:

Very cute :-)

Quoting LavosPhoenix:


Yeah, just another hilarious case of pareidolia in Weather, though this is just a coincidental mapping of relative humidity forecasts of the SW Caribbean AOI

Good example of the Cavazos method, you think?

Quoting StormW:


Gonna be touch and go. Two ways this can go right now, but like to see updated steering layers forecast in the next couple of days. Right now, looking at satellite loop imagery, the area appears to be almost stationary, and the current 700-850mb layer mean would sort of back that up. There is a flow to the SW it's in, however, there is a weakness in between the 2 ridges, so right now, it's caught between 2 directions, which would cause it to be sort of stationary. Based on the current steering layers forecast, it will either take a SW bend into the EPAC, or it could remain quasi-stationary, in which case, in about 72 hours, would begin to move WNW.

The wind shear forecast shows shear increasing, but if this area hangs on until around WED/THU, shear begins to relax, although not optimal as far as being under an upper level anti-cyclone, winds relax, and Zonal shear becomes darn near zero after 96 hours.

Like to see some more model runs on everything before I get too focused on it, but it DEFINITELY bears watching.

Thank You Storm...

This is why I never discount the season untill after Nov 30th..... We never know what will happen untill it does....

Taco :0)

Humans have taken the lead with their official (OFCL) track vs the models with Rick..

Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
OFCL CONSTANT 30.5 70.2 86.7 -1 -1
GFDL DECREASING 35.3 69.6 81.8 -1 -1
BAMD DECREASING 39.2 80.7 132.8 -1 -1
HWRF DECREASING 43.2 52.3 103.9 -1 -1
LBAR INCREASING 52.3 96.8 129.2 -1 -1
KHRM DECREASING 60 150.7 290.9 -1 -1
MM5B DECREASING 69.3 122.4 110.8 -1 -1

Quoting PcolaDan:


Have couple of these things bookmarked and I have just been WAITING to use this one. Timing is everything.

We all need a good laugh now and again. Thanks for that one. Always wondered how you came up with them so quickly. You just gave away your secret. Keep em comin'

Quoting StormW:


Gonna be touch and go. Two ways this can go right now, but like to see updated steering layers forecast in the next couple of days. Right now, looking at satellite loop imagery, the area appears to be almost stationary, and the current 700-850mb layer mean would sort of back that up. There is a flow to the SW it's in, however, there is a weakness in between the 2 ridges, so right now, it's caught between 2 directions, which would cause it to be sort of stationary. Based on the current steering layers forecast, it will either take a SW bend into the EPAC, or it could remain quasi-stationary, in which case, in about 72 hours, would begin to move WNW.

The wind shear forecast shows shear increasing, but if this area hangs on until around WED/THU, shear begins to relax, although not optimal as far as being under an upper level anti-cyclone, winds relax, and Zonal shear becomes darn near zero after 96 hours.

Like to see some more model runs on everything before I get too focused on it, but it DEFINITELY bears watching.

Thanks mate, I'm off to work. Have a good evening all.

Having Rick around & forecast to head off to the NE is going to make the Caribbean blob a little tougher to call.

Quoting StormW:


Gonna be touch and go. Two ways this can go right now, but like to see updated steering layers forecast in the next couple of days. Right now, looking at satellite loop imagery, the area appears to be almost stationary, and the current 700-850mb layer mean would sort of back that up. There is a flow to the SW it's in, however, there is a weakness in between the 2 ridges, so right now, it's caught between 2 directions, which would cause it to be sort of stationary. Based on the current steering layers forecast, it will either take a SW bend into the EPAC, or it could remain quasi-stationary, in which case, in about 72 hours, would begin to move WNW.

The wind shear forecast shows shear increasing, but if this area hangs on until around WED/THU, shear begins to relax, although not optimal as far as being under an upper level anti-cyclone, winds relax, and Zonal shear becomes darn near zero after 96 hours.

Like to see some more model runs on everything before I get too focused on it, but it DEFINITELY bears watching.

Was there not a discussion about a trough being down near South Florida and Southern Gulf around the time the feature might be in the same vicinity. If it were, what would that possibly do to the direction?

---

Humans not doing so well VS the models on Lupit.. though winner does call for a N Philippines hit.

Latest Error (nm)
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
AVNO INCREASING 61.8 61.8 62.6 208.3 -1
JMAE INCREASING 96.7 230.8 209 -1 -1
JTWC INCREASING 74.2 201.2 287.3 274.8 297.9
KHRA DECREASING 78.2 258.1 75.9 134.2 -1
KHRM DECREASING 72 246.3 56.6 180.1 -1
KXTR INCREASING 30 397.9 940.4 1554.4 -1
MM5B DECREASING 59.4 116.5 78 140.6 938.3
MM5E CONSTANT -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
RJTD CONSTANT 76.8 198.1 242.2 -1 -1
TXLA INCREASING 21.6 120.7 -1 -1 -1
UKMT DECREASING 76.8 123.7 237.4 344.9 -1

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just practice..

You got it!

Nite all

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Hope I didn't cause paranoia before w/bad ignore list joke.

Ugh, we have freeze warnings tonight.
Saw pic of beach (lack of beach)in Atlantic City, NJ from N'oreaster. Terrible, and another one coming.

I just recently saw an interesting show on sailing on the Chesapeake. Didn't know how the weather affected the Bay so drastically. The waters could be treacherous. I would have thought the opposite. I was always aware of the great interest in sailing there, but never knew how skilled one must be to go on it sometimes.

Quoting PcolaDan:


You got it!

Nite all

Nite. Stay well.

Quoting Skyepony:

OOH. Beginning to look nasty!

Here you go Grothar...Link

Night all :)



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