Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Super Hurricane Rick the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in Eastern Pacific

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:27 GMT le 18 octobre 2009

Hurricane Rick intensified in dramatic fashion yesterday into the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Truly deserving of the title "Super Hurricane", Rick grew into a monstrous Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 906 mb early this morning. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970. Meteorologists like to talk about a hurricane's Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI), the theoretical upper limit of a hurricane's intensification given the prevailing ocean heat content and atmospheric stability and moisture. Less than 5% of all hurricane reach their MPI, due to wind shear, interaction with land, entrainment of dry air, or other factors. Hurricane Rick was able to take advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification--light wind shear, high ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level atmospheric moisture--to reach its MPI and intensify into one of the strongest and most spectacular tropical cyclones ever recorded. The last tropical cyclone to attain Rick's intensity was Australia's Cyclone Monica of 2006, which also had 180 mph winds. Only nine Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history have been stronger than Rick.

Figure 1.Hurricane Rick at peak intensity on Sunday morning, October 18, 2009: 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb.

Wind shear will gradually increase and ocean heat content decrease over the next few days as Rick approaches Baja, and the hurricane should weaken considerably before landfall on Wednesday. The latest GFDL model run puts Rick at Category 2 strength, but Rick could still be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall, as predicted by the HWRF model. More rapid weakening into a Category 1 hurricane is also a distinct possibility, and the official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 2 forecast at landfall is a good middle-of-the-road forecast. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Thursday, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Saturday, possibly leading to heavy rains there next weekend.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major catastrophe for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit is stalled out over the Philippine Sea east of northern Luzon Island in the Philippines, but is expected to resume a westerly track towards the Philippines on Monday. Depending upon whether the storm makes landfall in northern Luzon or not, Lupit (the Filipino word for cruel) has the potential to live up to its name if it makes landfall as a major typhoon on Thursday, as currently forecast. A week ago, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit would bring another 12+ inches of rain to the already-soaked soils of the region, creating a major catastrophe. However, there is hope that storm's current slow and erratic movement will carry Lupit far enough north that the typhoon will miss the Philippines.

Early snow in Northeast U.S. sets records
This weekend's snowstorm in the Northeast set records for the earliest date with an inch of snow in Binghamton, Ithaca and Olean in New York and Altoona and State College in Pennsylvania. State College received 4.8 inches of snow from the storm, and snow amounts as high as ten inches were recorded in the surrounding mountains.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned.

Jeff Masters

Pink Snow (CecileWNC)

The first dusting of snow in the Blue Ridge Mountains today!

The Snowy Poconos (robin57)

Woke up and saw SNOW everywhere ....it is too early but we have to make the best out of the situation and I did just that ...I went picture taking today ENJOY my friends So i hope you like my have fall half winter photo

Penn State, Bryce Jordan Center (SoggyWaffles)

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 101 - 151

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index

101. xcool 16:35 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
GFS SUCK!!!! THIS YEAR Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

102. BahaHurican 16:35 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: This blog cannot be peaceful for one day? Just when things were going well.... I believe in [-] and [!]. They are such wonderful tools! Especially when others do not quote the foolish and instigating comments... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690

103. beell 16:35 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
I'm laughing scott just not sure why lol Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12895

104. floridafisherman 16:37 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
atlantamet..... you have been reported to admin for resorting to name calling on this blog you have also been added to my ignore list. you sure join some "fine" company on it, like stormno and WS. have a great day! Member Since: 28 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 514

105. cchsweatherman 16:37 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: I think in times like these, storms threatening Florida, its best to be in lurk mode. Too much fighting anticipated this week. I think thats a good call. Just give your input and analysis and leave it at that. Sorta like guerrilla forecasting. lol Member Since: 14 avril 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

107. BurnedAfterPosting 16:38 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: 44. AtlantaMET 11:59 AM EDT on October 18, 2009 1. 2 is not most of us. 2. Taking the discussion towards personalities and away from a most interesting set of conditions in the WCar. I have to admit today we have has some reasonable discussion for a change. I'm really enjoying that instead of the other stuff. Trolls hate reasonable conversation, it is there cue to start to instigate and stir up the blog.

109. BurnedAfterPosting 16:40 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
He said ANTICIPATED this week, read his comment properly It happens all the time when a storm could threaten Florida; people call each other wishcasters and the such; and it blows up and creates so much unneeded drama

110. BahaHurican 16:40 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
456, maybe this is a good time to take a break, go get a drink, eat a snack, examine the local weather first hand, etc. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690

111. AussieStorm 16:43 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting floridafisherman: atlantamet..... you have been reported to admin for resorting to name calling on this blog you have also been added to my ignore list. you sure join some "fine" company on it, like stormno and WS. have a great day! I have joined u. I also think Lupit is lost. Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13366

112. IKE 16:43 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting xcool: GFS SUCK!!!! THIS YEAR It shows nothing significant in the western Caribbean. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

113. BahaHurican 16:43 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
I'm going to do some stuff around the house until the next TWD comes out. The trolls can sit around and disturb themselves, I guess. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690

114. BahaHurican 16:44 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting AussieStorm: I have joined u. I also think Lupit is lost. So long as it doesn't stumble over Luzon in the process.... lol L8r... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690

115. ackee 16:45 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
cant wait for next run from the ECMWF be intresting to see Member Since: 15 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194

116. floridafisherman 16:45 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
aussie.... at least lupit isnt isnt wandering several hundred miles to the west....that would be a disaster if it started stalling out over the philipines Member Since: 28 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 514

117. AussieStorm 16:46 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: I'm going to do some stuff around the house until the next TWD comes out. The trolls can sit around and disturb themselves, I guess. I wish for the day where trolls put each other on ignore and report each other. then this place will be full of like minded people. Oh how i wish for that day, my ignore list has had a big workout this year. Lupit... please don't hit the Philippines, they don't need anymore rain. Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13366

118. amd 16:47 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
All these personal arguments over a Caribbean system that has not developed, may not develop, and has to deal with an uncertain at best upper air environment. Sometimes this blog is too much. Btw, beell, for your poll, I pick option c. A disorganized set of thunderstorms moving into Nicaragua, and eventually lifting into the western Caribbean, causing increased moisture and rain, but no true tropical development. Member Since: 29 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024

119. AussieStorm 16:47 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting floridafisherman: aussie.... at least lupit isnt isnt wandering several hundred miles to the west....that would be a disaster if it started stalling out over the philipines Parma did, 20+ inch's of rain and 3 crossings. Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13366

120. Cavin Rawlins 16:47 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting AussieStorm: I have joined u. I also think Lupit is lost. More like stuck He is being pulled and slowed by a weakness between an frontal trough to its north and high pressure out further east. As the trough passes, high pressure builds west and Lupit should resume its westward course. This is a classic stair-step motion. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

121. floridafisherman 16:48 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
weather here in sw florida is great today! a little windy, but temp wise, its nearly perfect. to show how strong this front actually was, it was 75 degrees here at sat morning at 1 am. it was only 54 degrees here at 1 am this morning.... a temp drop of over 20 degrees in a 24 hr period. thats a pretty strong front for here in s florida. Member Since: 28 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 514

122. beell 16:49 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting amd: All these personal arguments over a Caribbean system that has not developed, may not develop, and has to deal with an uncertain at best upper air environment. Sometimes this blog is too much. Btw, beell, for your poll, I pick option c. A disorganized set of thunderstorms moving into Nicaragua, and eventually lifting into the western Caribbean, causing increased moisture and rain, but no true tropical development. Thank you, amd! With that-a great time to exit to the remaing yardwork. I lean towards (a) myself! Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12895

123. PalmBeachWeatherBoy 16:49 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Wow West palm beach, florida has only had 4% of its average rain this month. Member Since: 30 août 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 433

124. AussieStorm 16:50 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: More like stuck He is being pulled and slowed by a weakness between an frontal trough to its north and high pressure out further east. As the trough passes, high pressure builds west and Lupit should resume its westward course. This is a classic stair-step motion. 456, Your a font of information. Thanks Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13366

125. xcool 16:51 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
IKE YEAH Member Since: 26 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

126. ackee 16:52 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
dont think GFS will ever come on broad with this system looking at CMC come on broad shortly follow by the ukmet Member Since: 15 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194

127. floridafisherman 16:53 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
124 aussie... i agree that 456 makes some of the best and easiest to read graphics and maps on the blog. cchsweatherman also makes some very good maps that make it easy for weathernovices like myself to understand the dynamics effecting tropical systems. Member Since: 28 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 514

128. AussieStorm 16:53 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting floridafisherman: 124 aussie... i agree that 456 makes some of the best and easiest to read graphics and maps on the blog. cchsweatherman also makes some very good maps that make it easy for weathernovices like myself to understand the dynamics effecting tropical systems. 100% agree Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13366

129. Drakoen 16:54 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
New cimss 15z maps would place the low pressure center at 80W. The upper level ridge axis in expand over the southern Caribbean...shear tendency showing dropping shear...5-10 knots of shear. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

130. HIEXPRESS 16:54 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Masters (2008): The MJO is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator, and can act to boost hurricane activity when it propagates into the Atlantic. The MJO has a period of about 30-60 days, and is currently in its active phase over the Atlantic. According to the latest 15-day GFS model forecast and the MJO discussion from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, we are expected to remain in an active phase for the MJO over the Atlantic for at least the next two weeks. This year, the active phase of the MJO has been strongly correlated with formation of named storms in the Atlantic. According to the latest analysis by Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (Table 4, below), ten of the last eleven named storms in the Atlantic this year formed during an active phase of the MJO. We can anticipate an above average chance of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this October as a result. We had three: Tropical Storm Marco 10/06-10/07 65 998 0 No US Landfall 0 Tropical Storm Nana 10/12-10/15 40 1004 0 No US Landfall 0 Hurricane Omar 10/13-10/21 135 958 0 No US Landfall 0 Maybe the ECMWF is "seeing" an Omar. Member Since: 13 octobre 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2153

131. BurnedAfterPosting 16:54 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting amd: All these personal arguments over a Caribbean system that has not developed, may not develop, and has to deal with an uncertain at best upper air environment. Sometimes this blog is too much. Btw, beell, for your poll, I pick option c. A disorganized set of thunderstorms moving into Nicaragua, and eventually lifting into the western Caribbean, causing increased moisture and rain, but no true tropical development. Huh? the arguments are coming from the trolls calling people wischasters Fact is before all that crap started, this was some of the best conversation this blog has had for weeks. I think you interpretation of this whole situation is wrong and is being based on your personal opinion of what will happen down in the Caribbean Since you feel there won't be development, you are including those who are being reasonable about the possibility of development in your comment about arguing; sorry its not like that at all.

132. BurnedAfterPosting 16:55 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting Drakoen: New cimss 15z maps would place the low pressure center at 80W. The upper level ridge axis in expand over the southern Caribbean...shear tendency showing dropping shear...5-10 knots of shear. Ok so basically we have the existing weather that the ECMWF is developing already

133. Cavin Rawlins 16:56 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Well I am not a wishcaster but I'm hoping the ECMWF verifies, because it would prove that the ECMWF is very credible even in a situation like this, my most favorite model. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

134. Drakoen 16:57 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

135. ackee 16:59 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: Well I am not a wishcaster but I'm hoping the ECMWF verifies, because it would prove that the ECMWF is very credible even in a situation like this, my most favorite model. I THINK ECMWF is the best model by far despite the worship of GFS Member Since: 15 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194

136. BurnedAfterPosting 16:59 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: Well I am not a wishcaster but I'm hoping the ECMWF verifies, because it would prove that the ECMWF is very credible even in a situation like this, my most favorite model. and maybe it will shut some people up in the process lol The discussion this morning has been very reasonable; the points being made by Drak, you and others have been very reasonable Yet some come out and call people wishcasters; then when someone takes offense you have others come out and say all this arguing about a system that may develop is stupid. The arguing had nothing to do with the system itself, it had to do with personal attacks by people who are calling others wishcasters just because the feel the ECMWF may be on to something.

138. BurnedAfterPosting 17:03 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Also as someone who has followed the tropics for years, I feel that the GFS runs from about 5-7 days ago are very significant, because the GFS has a tendency to show something consistently in the long range, then drop it for a few days and then come back with it right before development We will have to see if other models jump on board and if the ECMWF continues its consistency.

139. AussieStorm 17:03 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting Drakoen: Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13366

140. Cavin Rawlins 17:03 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting ackee: I THINK ECMWF is the best model by far despite the worship of GFS The GFS is very good in predicting the upper level environment out several days, it has not been so good this year, but we all know how difficult 2009 is. In addition, models on a hold have been worshiped too much. Henri was not developed by a single model, so you had to go with what was going on. That's where some fell off. Erika was no exception. In this case we have the ECMWF so slightly different. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

141. Orcasystems 17:04 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting Weather456: Well I am not a wishcaster but I'm hoping the ECMWF verifies, because it would prove that the ECMWF is very credible even in a situation like this, my most favorite model. Not going to be pretty if it does verify :( Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

142. Cavin Rawlins 17:05 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting Orcasystems: Not going to be pretty if it does verify :( not the intensity but an actual system I was alluding to. Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

143. AussieStorm 17:06 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
I'm out... 4am here... goodnight Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13366

144. amd 17:06 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting: and maybe it will shut some people up in the process lol The discussion this morning has been very reasonable; the points being made by Drak, you and others have been very reasonable Yet some come out and call people wishcasters; then when someone takes offense you have others come out and say all this arguing about a system that may develop is stupid. The arguing had nothing to do with the system itself, it had to do with personal attacks by people who are calling others wishcasters just because the feel the ECMWF may be on to something. Factual arguments are just fine about the system (whether there will be favorable upper level or not, whether the system will have land interaction are not, are acceptable). Calling people wishcasters or implying that posters are dating because they are not in one line of thinking is unacceptable and stupid. BTW, BAP, I will continue to make observations however I see fit, and whether you or anybody else for that matter likes them or not is none of my concern. Member Since: 29 août 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024

145. BurnedAfterPosting 17:08 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting amd: Factual arguments are just fine about the system (whether there will be favorable upper level or not, whether the system will have land interaction are not, are acceptable). Calling people wishcasters or implying that posters are dating because they are not in your line of thinking is unacceptable and stupid. BTW, BAP, I will continue to make observations however I see fit, and whether you or anybody else for that matter likes them or not is none of my concern. I respect that amd and now that you put it in that context, I agree with you 100% I just wasnt aware it was the wishcasting calling you were referring to in your previous post.

146. Bordonaro 17:09 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting scottsvb: thats cause both guys are dating each other There is Huge, powerful Rick & Lupit!! With possible Tropical development in the Caribbean.. Sounds like you may be "jealous"?! Plus at 48 I've learned sometimes a person should "keep their mouths shut on certain issues".. This is a WEATHER blog, discussing Tropical Weather..not a SOAP opera..Go to Yahoo Communities, Facebook, My Space, etc, if you want to discuss sexual issues.. PLUS, there are grandparents, parents, CHILDREN, young adults here, please WATCH what you say!! Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

147. BahaHurican 17:10 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting: Also as someone who has followed the tropics for years, I feel that the GFS runs from about 5-7 days ago are very significant, because the GFS has a tendency to show something consistently in the long range, then drop it for a few days and then come back with it right before development We will have to see if other models jump on board and if the ECMWF continues its consistency. I wonder if anybody in the professional community has done any correlational type studies on the GFS-long-range. There should be a sufficiently large dataset available now to be able to evaluate its accuracy for TC formation and even to identify scenarios / situations when its forecast is most likely to verify. Developing a reliable 5-7 day forecast model would be a major step forward for TC forecasting in this basin. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690

148. AllStar17 17:10 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
I would put a yellow circle on the SO CAR AOI at 2, but knowing the NHC, they probably wont. Member Since: 29 juin 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

149. stormpetrol 17:11 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
10N/34W appears to be organizing. Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6404

150. BahaHurican 17:13 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
Quoting stormpetrol: 10N/34W appears to be organizing. This would be cool.... so what's the J storm again? Just in case lol Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17690

151. Walshy 17:13 GMT le 18 octobre 2009
******************storm total snowfall**************** Location storm total time/date comments snowfall of (inches) measurement North Carolina ... Avery County... Banner Elk 1.0 800 am 10/18 coop Beech Mountain 1.0 1126 am 10/18 coop ... Haywood County... Waynesville 0.5 700 am 10/18 5 NW cocorahs 3450 ft Waynesville 0.5 800 am 10/18 5 W cocorahs 5282 ft Canton 0.2 800 am 10/18 8 SSE cocorahs 3651 ft Waynesville 0.2 800 am 10/18 4 E cocorahs 3507 ft ... Swain County... Newfound Gap 2.0 1128 am 10/18 park official ... Yancey County... Mount Mitchell state 2.0 700 am 10/18 coop Member Since: 17 mai 2009 Posts: 2 Comments:** 618

Viewing: 101 - 151

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 — Blog Index

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters