Typhoon Mirinae less destructive than feared for Philippines
Typhoon Mirinae blew through the Philippines' Luzon Island yesterday as a borderline Category 1 to 2 typhoon with top winds of 95 - 100 mph. Due to the rapid forward motion of the typhoon and a sharp decrease in the storm's organization just prior to landfall, rainfall amounts from the typhoon were less than six inches over Luzon. The eye of Mirinae passed over the capital of Manila, where winds peaked at minimal tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 56 mph, at 6 am local time Saturday. Nearby weather stations recorded sustained winds as high as 44 mph, and rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches. Though Mirinae is being blamed for at least 11 deaths, with 7 people still missing, it's fair to say that the typhoon largely spared the Philippines. The Manila Bulletin is reporting that a tornado (called an "ipo-ipo" there) injured ten and destroyed some 60 houses in Cavite and Ternate as Mirinae swept through.
Mirinae, now just a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, is currently over the South China Sea. Mirinae is expected to make landfall in south-central Vietnam near 00 UTC on Monday, November 2. As Mirinae approaches Vietnam, wind shear will increase, sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the ocean will sharply decrease, and the storm will encounter cooler, more stable air. These negative influences should make Mirinae a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm at landfall in Vietnam.
Figure 1. Filipinos watch the onslaught of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: Jim Edds. His extremestorms.com website has images and videos from the landfall of Mirinae.
Quiet in the Atlantic
A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 30N 50W, 700 miles east of Bermuda, has cut off from the jet stream. This low will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next three days. It is possible that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida, though I put the chances at low, less than 30%. SSTs are 25 - 26° C in the region, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is high, 30 - 50 knots, and there is a large amount of dry air to the west of the low, so no development will occur today. The storm is expected to recurve to the north well east of Bermuda on Tuesday.
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical storm development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The GFS and NOGAPS models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week, and it is possible that this development could occur on the Atlantic side of Central America instead, as suggested by the Canadian model.
Jeff Masters
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TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are a group of cyclones defined as synoptic scale low pressure weather systems that occur in the middle latitudes of the Earth (outside the tropics) having neither tropical nor polar characteristics, and are connected with fronts and horizontal gradients in temperature and dew point otherwise known as "baroclinic zones".[1] Extratropical cyclones are the everyday phenomena which, along with anticyclones, drive the weather over much of the Earth, producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to heavy gales and thunderstorms.
Subtropical cyclone
A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical and an extratropical cyclone. As early as the 1950s, meteorologists were unclear whether they should be characterized as tropical or extratropical cyclones. They were officially recognized by the National Hurricane Center in 1972. Subtropical cyclones began to receive names off the official tropical cyclone lists in the Atlantic Basin and the southwest Indian ocean.
There are two definitions currently used for subtropical cyclones. Across the north Atlantic and southwest Indian ocean, they require central convection fairly near the center and a warming core in the mid-levels of the troposphere. Across the eastern half of the northern Pacific, they require a mid-tropospheric cyclone to cut off from the main belt of the westerlies and only a weak surface circulation. Subtropical cyclones have broad wind patterns with maximum sustained winds located farther from the center than typical tropical cyclones, and have no weather fronts linked into their center.
Since they form from initially extratropical cyclones which have colder temperatures aloft than normally found in the tropics, the sea surface temperatures required for their formation are lower than the tropical cyclone threshold by 3°C (5°F), lying around 23 °C (73 °F). This also means that subtropical cyclones are more likely to form outside the traditional bounds of the hurricane season.
http://hurricanecity.com/
wait for it..........
I THINK I SEE A EYE!
What!! It's 10ET now.
Loop
Phase Diagram 2: Lower Troposphere Thermal Wind Vs Upper Troposphere Thermal Wind
Wrapping in some dry air right to the heart
Looking kinda frontal again?
Not gonna make it...
SSD WV Loop
Secretary of HHS said lots more H1N1 vaccine coming this week; stand by to stand by :-)
Anyone around in '57 and before has already been exposed to same strain of flu, so not so much worry about this group.
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 127.2E TO 19.0N 122.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 012030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8N 126.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS
thats 97W
Games are getting Interesting tonight now :)
HERE YA GO
Yeah, not much tho, it got down to 30 last night :P
I keep checking... waiting for the Centre of the Universe to start snowing and freeze over :)
I have 47.5
lol, "STORM"... looks like they're still calling it frontal. Not that I do think it deserves a name based in its presentation at the moment, but they really are finding any excuse to never name this. Too much paperwork?
It's the government, is there such thing as too much paperwork for them? :P
lol well, how is your weather?
I have decided to keep the majority of my posts weather related(I'm sure people are glad to hear this) since people were really giving me a hard time about it the other day. I just always tried to keep the blog in good spirits by trying to insert some humor here and there, but some of the bloggers did not like it, and I will respect them, that way I can attempt to avoid further bashing.
yeah same here, I like the cold temperatures tho, and I am definitely anticipating some good snows this year (:
maybe, I guess some like it, others hate it.
(guess i'm the only one staying up till the 4am advisory... lol... have too, roommate plays music till at least then)
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