Typhoon Mirinae less destructive than feared for Philippines
Typhoon Mirinae blew through the Philippines' Luzon Island yesterday as a borderline Category 1 to 2 typhoon with top winds of 95 - 100 mph. Due to the rapid forward motion of the typhoon and a sharp decrease in the storm's organization just prior to landfall, rainfall amounts from the typhoon were less than six inches over Luzon. The eye of Mirinae passed over the capital of Manila, where winds peaked at minimal tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 56 mph, at 6 am local time Saturday. Nearby weather stations recorded sustained winds as high as 44 mph, and rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches. Though Mirinae is being blamed for at least 11 deaths, with 7 people still missing, it's fair to say that the typhoon largely spared the Philippines. The Manila Bulletin is reporting that a tornado (called an "ipo-ipo" there) injured ten and destroyed some 60 houses in Cavite and Ternate as Mirinae swept through.
Mirinae, now just a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, is currently over the South China Sea. Mirinae is expected to make landfall in south-central Vietnam near 00 UTC on Monday, November 2. As Mirinae approaches Vietnam, wind shear will increase, sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the ocean will sharply decrease, and the storm will encounter cooler, more stable air. These negative influences should make Mirinae a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm at landfall in Vietnam.
Figure 1. Filipinos watch the onslaught of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: Jim Edds. His extremestorms.com website has images and videos from the landfall of Mirinae.
Quiet in the Atlantic
A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 30N 50W, 700 miles east of Bermuda, has cut off from the jet stream. This low will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next three days. It is possible that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida, though I put the chances at low, less than 30%. SSTs are 25 - 26° C in the region, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is high, 30 - 50 knots, and there is a large amount of dry air to the west of the low, so no development will occur today. The storm is expected to recurve to the north well east of Bermuda on Tuesday.
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical storm development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The GFS and NOGAPS models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week, and it is possible that this development could occur on the Atlantic side of Central America instead, as suggested by the Canadian model.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Indeed ..I've read some of his published work.
As he's a scientist,and a well respected one.
Richard Lindzen
Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 31OCT)
============================================
An area of convection (99S) located at 9.2S 57.6E or 850 NM northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Animated multispectral imagery shows a broad circulation with sporadic convection firing over the low level circulation center. A 1427z Quikscat Pass depicts an elongated line of cyclonic convergence that extends northeast to southwest for approximately 180 NM. The Quikscat Pass shows winds are strongest on the western half with unflagged 15-20 knots dominating, and a few 20-25 knot wind barbs intermixed. Upper level analysis shows the low level circulation is located under a subtropical ridge axis, providing good poleward outflow. Additionally, vertical wind shear along the axis at low to moderate levels (10-15 knots). Sea surface temperatures are marginal at 26-28C for development.
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1007 MB. Based on an low level circulation center that is still organizing, but has favorable upper level outflow, marginal sea surface temperatures, and low vertical wind shear, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is FAIR.
Well..Al Gore is a fellow Veteran,who served his country well,as a Congressman,Senator and V. P...and I applaud his efforts to raise the level of consciousness on the Subject Matter.
"Gore also chose to enlist because he did not want someone to go in his place. Actor Tommy Lee Jones (a former housemate) later recalled Gore saying that "if he found a fancy way of not going, someone else would have to go in his place."His Harvard advisor, Richard Neustadt, also stated that Gore, "decided that he would have to go and that he would have to go as an enlisted man because, he said, 'In Tennessee, that's what most people have to do.'
I support him also and dis-approve of those who like to discuss Al Gore in a negative way on this blog. I owe my 14 year career in the NWS to a program that Al Gore initiated to help low income College Students to enter summer jobs as interns with NOAA and therby gain experience. That program was abolished by the following administration. Thanks AL Gore!
Смеяться над вне громко. Да господин, камрад,..!
LOL
Yes Sir Comrade..!
Why Gulfie..I believe you had a Emotional response..
Great..let's get it going. We need rain in Florida!!! It's part of our climate!!!
When ever you see a frontal rope, it indicates a semi-sharp discontinuity between 2 air masses and in this case it is continental polar air from the Southern Plains and Tropical Maritime air from the GOM. The cold airmass is shallow and so the tropical airmass rides over it and back a pretty far distance and that is why the cloud cover covers a broad swath. It indicates the cold airmass is not dense enough to advance forward so the front is slow moving or near normal speed.
A fast moving cold front usual spawns squall lines like the one from a few nights ago.
Glenn Beck's opinions are as valid as yours...
NOW STICK TO THE WEATHER!
I still that area has the potential for "mischief".
we need it to and bad
we need it to and bad
Thank you for this post ... been watching that one all day. BTW - must be close to a full moon and Halloween - this blog's gone spooky and lunar.
However, the GFS is showing increasing moisture over the western caribbean and upper level anticyclogenesis. The latest GEM models have been hinting tropical cyclogenesis; only time will substantiate this.
Excellent
+1
Is this the blob in the Caribbean will might be talking about soon. Shear maps, who has the shear maps?
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
30.4N/51.2W
Is that cyclogenesis or anticyclogenesis?
18Z GFS at 252 hours....
The initial frontal wave (or low pressure area) forms at the location of the red dot on the image. It is usually perpendicular (at a right angle to) the leaf-like cloud formation (baroclinic leaf) seen on satellite during the early stage of cyclogenesis. The location of the axis of the upper level jet stream is in light blue.
Thanks Keeper, I understand everything perfectly now, it is cyclogenesis, right. Where were you when I was taking Geometry?
cyclogenesis
Hi, Weather, look at post #140. I finally got one right! Beat ya this time.
is making a fortune from it.
Where did all the bloggers go?
Action: Quote | Ignore User
out trick or treating
BOO!
...& greeting the little tricksters...
ankle-bitin' canines want to EAT them...
Later!
poof
2009 BLOB WATCHIN SEASON
HAPPY HALLOWEEN
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