Typhoon Mirinae less destructive than feared for Philippines
Typhoon Mirinae blew through the Philippines' Luzon Island yesterday as a borderline Category 1 to 2 typhoon with top winds of 95 - 100 mph. Due to the rapid forward motion of the typhoon and a sharp decrease in the storm's organization just prior to landfall, rainfall amounts from the typhoon were less than six inches over Luzon. The eye of Mirinae passed over the capital of Manila, where winds peaked at minimal tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 56 mph, at 6 am local time Saturday. Nearby weather stations recorded sustained winds as high as 44 mph, and rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches. Though Mirinae is being blamed for at least 11 deaths, with 7 people still missing, it's fair to say that the typhoon largely spared the Philippines. The Manila Bulletin is reporting that a tornado (called an "ipo-ipo" there) injured ten and destroyed some 60 houses in Cavite and Ternate as Mirinae swept through.
Mirinae, now just a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, is currently over the South China Sea. Mirinae is expected to make landfall in south-central Vietnam near 00 UTC on Monday, November 2. As Mirinae approaches Vietnam, wind shear will increase, sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the ocean will sharply decrease, and the storm will encounter cooler, more stable air. These negative influences should make Mirinae a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm at landfall in Vietnam.
Figure 1. Filipinos watch the onslaught of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: Jim Edds. His extremestorms.com website has images and videos from the landfall of Mirinae.
Quiet in the Atlantic
A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 30N 50W, 700 miles east of Bermuda, has cut off from the jet stream. This low will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next three days. It is possible that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida, though I put the chances at low, less than 30%. SSTs are 25 - 26° C in the region, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is high, 30 - 50 knots, and there is a large amount of dry air to the west of the low, so no development will occur today. The storm is expected to recurve to the north well east of Bermuda on Tuesday.
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical storm development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The GFS and NOGAPS models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week, and it is possible that this development could occur on the Atlantic side of Central America instead, as suggested by the Canadian model.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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What's your thoughts on the SW Caribbean?
Why?
Well DrNo its called "Tropical Update" which covers everyone in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific tropics.
Furthermore, TWC derives most of their forecast from the NHC whose AOR is the Atlantic and Pacific Basin from Africa to 140W.
There's a blob! Small and disorganized, but still a blob.
The area of showers lies in a diffluent zone southeast of an upper low at the base of a frontal trough moving through the GOM. A tropical wave and surface trough is also aiding in the instability. I do not expect development as the features head west.
So True, and from small blobs sometimes they become "big things".
Thanks.
Well,sport,,those of us who experienced K from Ala to Houma La..may beg to differ with you in regards to K being overrated.
Bottom Line,1600 Deaths in 3 States..and 250,000 homes destroyed ..will always be the true story of her Power. Oh and Ivan took Lives in Fla and Ala in the States too.
And to be sure..Cat Size isnt the determining factor of a Canes Strength,Surge is. Not any Cat 3 ever produced a 30 ft storm surge,that Im aware of. The SSS is outmoded and dated,as Katrina ,Gustav and Ike showed us all.
Never willy nilly another's calamity,..its in the worst taste.
Show me another Hurricane that takes 3 hours to drive thru the impact zone.
And I'll eat my USMC hat Here.
Your the Biggest Caribbean wishcaster among the fine group down under.
Katrina NOAA Index Base Map
Yes but had the city had proper levee sytems it wouldn't have flooded the way it did.. Also I think a CATEGORY 5 hitting new orleans would wipe it off the map, Katrina did not do that.
54.3°F
No, it is still in the early stages - seclusion of a cold core low.
AMSU temperature brightness pass from 2200 UTC this evening revealed the feature is still connected slightly to the mid-latitudes and cold air aloft has not fully secluded as yet. CPDs also indicate the feature remains a cold core feature aloft.
Other features outlined are the tropical atmosphere heat flux since the main medium for the transport of heat in the tropical atmosphere is convection and condensation (cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds). Also the Iceland Low, and the tropical air ahead of the cold front advancing over the Eastern CONUS and GOM.
don´t tell me that please...
I never discount any ones Calamity..for 19days I yanked folks Living and dead from K's waters.
And Im involved in plenty of Disaster Works to this day..and even attending a conference here in NOLA on Nov 23rd.
I cringe though when others without a clue,try to pass off as Knowing what occurred here.
Those CNN moments you saw werent what we saw inside the bubble.
We were a tad busy too,to even consider what the world saw.
Enojyed clarifying as usual.
Back to my Keg and my Company.
Of Which many are shaking there heads here and even laughing over the idiocy expressed by some tonight.
Even being affected by Katrina here in mobile, I have to agree with his sentiment. Overrated is probably not the best choice of word but I agree with from a purely storm perspective. Ivan was more powerful at it's initial landfall than Katrina was imo. To say "overrated" is a bit harsh and I'd prefer to say "misunderstood" as the damage she caused was very real, but was the brute force equivalent to the storm of the century some believe it is? Dunno about that.
That's what friends are for....!
First, you are correct, once the feature fully secludes, under the right conditions it can generate latent heat which tightens the isobars closer to the center and it can become subtropical.
Second, this thing about 23C is one of the reasons which led me to argue 90L was a subtropical storm. In meteorological, there is no exact temperature which dictates when something occurs (other than ice freezes at 0C). SSTs where Grace were 22C which is not much difference from 23C but because it was below 23C, that was used as an opposing argument. For example, the difference between a 155 mph cat 4 and a 160 mph cat 5.
Last, we have to remember lapse rates. If there was a steep enough difference between 22C waters and the air temperature at 500 mb, it could still result in enough instability to generate convection and consequently latent heat.
Cyclonekid
New to the blog, lol. You will eventually seasoned in and get use to it.
We are all human, and as such we are by nature only effected by what directly impacts us. Regardless of how much we try to project our empathy to others who are suffering i.e. - the Phillipines this year. While we intellectually understand their plight, how many of us do anything to alliviate their suffering; or for that matter can even begin to comprehend it?
I could relate very closely to the Baxter's woes and gave a contribution to Portlight on their behalf, but I don't have any way to relate directly to the folks in the Phillipines so I give to international orginazations in the hope that that they will get some relief. This is just a generalized hope because I cannot relate directly to them. When I see my neighbors roof blowing by my house, I have a much more powerful and personal reaction. I see it, I feel it, and I am impacted personally by it. It doesn't mean that I don't care for the folks who are far away, I'm just not personally affected so I can't be emotionally tied to it.
My other thought - this is a blog from the U.S. and as such is skewed toward that area. Plus, the population discrepencies would tend to be tilted toward impacts there. And there are those who couldn't care less about anyone but themselves-Uggh...
Happy Halloween!
The fact is all tragedies leave lasting marks on everyone. Are they always, avoidable, I don't know, but to argure about which was worse serves no purpose. I hope you all take this in the manner in which I intended. I wouldn't have wanted to trade places with any of you who suffered in any way.
ya gotta quit being so reasonable and sensible ; )
I worked 6 weeks after Katrina in Mississippi where she actually hit. I also worked the Tsunami in Thailand, Wilma in both Mexico and the US, as well as Gustave and Ike. I have been on ground zero for all of them and let me tell you Katrina was the monster. I get very frustrated by everyone talking about Katrina and New Orleans, that was a man made disaster, made worse by the human element. New Orleans is still standing, but entire cities in MS were wiped off the face of the earth. It's all about the storm surge and Katrina pushed a monster in front of her. I had just seen the tsunami damage and as I watched Katrina and heard the reports about her surge, I just prayed people would evacuate. Sadly many did not.
you, too...
Somes opinions..like mine,yours,..and opines in Florida,Miss,Texas and round 47 other United States are as valid as anyones,we live in a big Basin.
Opinions are like fences,folks dogs,and their cars..
Everyone got the cutest the best and its theirs.
All other are moot.
But over-rated is a term best left for TV shows,Football Players..and well.,the obvious
Kit-Kat..?.
That's why I drink, keeps me from thinking too much..... BTW, Portlight ROCKS!
Great post, pretty much summed up what I was thinking, just better!
Agree. Overrated is a bad term and I don't think anyone meant to use it in a way that makes what happened any less appalling.
Thank you for being all you can be in times of disaster.
K put 4 ft of water on my Grandparents grave in NOLA and 26ft on my other Grandparents in Waveland near Coleman Ave.
That surge came and went in 6 hours tops.
That surge Ran thru a Home we have offa 90 in Bay St. Louis.as well.
But in the city,the funnel..Intracoastal.Waterway,MRGO,outfall Canals..
Bad Mojo is out there.
The Atlantic has many cards to play .
She is patient. NOLA got off for 40 years easy. Till 2005.
2010 will bring her own Frays. Maybe One for the books.
Prep now while its cheap.
The surge broke levee'and well,we bled to death in water those top off after 4 days.
So the blood runs wide and deep for thousands.
Gustav proved many heed the word .
Seen the bad..and the good.
Here is no different.
Samoa relief from portlight is what we could muster.
Presslord has those details.
97W
You gotta be kidding me.
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Seems like the tropics are having some type of last hurrah... It doesn't look like that front will make it even to Orlando. All kinds of nastiness over Central America, good thing its not over water or itd be spinning up.
Trending Lower and tighter seems.
97W
Floater - JSL Color Infrared Loop
Rainbow Still 97W
I wasn't speaking in terms of direct assistance, just the overall tendancy of the bloggers to be geocentric to the U.S.
They tend to only think about their own coastline.
P.S. - I've been to your islands twice and can't wait to come back :)
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