Typhoon Mirinae less destructive than feared for Philippines
Typhoon Mirinae blew through the Philippines' Luzon Island yesterday as a borderline Category 1 to 2 typhoon with top winds of 95 - 100 mph. Due to the rapid forward motion of the typhoon and a sharp decrease in the storm's organization just prior to landfall, rainfall amounts from the typhoon were less than six inches over Luzon. The eye of Mirinae passed over the capital of Manila, where winds peaked at minimal tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 56 mph, at 6 am local time Saturday. Nearby weather stations recorded sustained winds as high as 44 mph, and rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches. Though Mirinae is being blamed for at least 11 deaths, with 7 people still missing, it's fair to say that the typhoon largely spared the Philippines. The Manila Bulletin is reporting that a tornado (called an "ipo-ipo" there) injured ten and destroyed some 60 houses in Cavite and Ternate as Mirinae swept through.
Mirinae, now just a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, is currently over the South China Sea. Mirinae is expected to make landfall in south-central Vietnam near 00 UTC on Monday, November 2. As Mirinae approaches Vietnam, wind shear will increase, sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the ocean will sharply decrease, and the storm will encounter cooler, more stable air. These negative influences should make Mirinae a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm at landfall in Vietnam.
Figure 1. Filipinos watch the onslaught of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: Jim Edds. His extremestorms.com website has images and videos from the landfall of Mirinae.
Quiet in the Atlantic
A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 30N 50W, 700 miles east of Bermuda, has cut off from the jet stream. This low will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next three days. It is possible that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida, though I put the chances at low, less than 30%. SSTs are 25 - 26° C in the region, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is high, 30 - 50 knots, and there is a large amount of dry air to the west of the low, so no development will occur today. The storm is expected to recurve to the north well east of Bermuda on Tuesday.
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical storm development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The GFS and NOGAPS models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week, and it is possible that this development could occur on the Atlantic side of Central America instead, as suggested by the Canadian model.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Lawl I wonder who this really is ... Thought people from texas may speak that way they generally don't type it! lmao good for a 32 minute after midnight H'ween funny though =)
there was a depression in the arabian sea already this year.
Agreed
heading WNW at 10kts but there is a cold front coming off China/Taiwan which could push it either W or WSW
Link
54 in brownsville??? thats insane, cause its the dead of night in upstate new york and it's 49.
Martin Palmer, Saturday October 31, 2009 - 15:28 EDT
Cloud, rain and brisk southeasterly winds, all combined this month to deliver a fairly drab October.
It was a promising start, as Sydney soared to 33 degrees on Thursday 1st. This was blown apart on Saturday 3rd when a strong front swept into the southeast. A top of just 15 degrees ensued.
A slow recovery was made into the middle of the month as a high pressure system took control.
Sunny skies and 35 degrees was the order of the day on Wednesday 21st, but didn't last for the weekend, where we fell below average, again.
The last third of the month saw Sydney plagued by cool southeast winds, heavy rainfall and gloomy skies.
Based on maximum temperatures and averaging 21.4 degrees, we have now seen our coldest October in 17 years.
Overnight, minimums were mild for October. With plenty of insulating cloud about, the average was 14.1 degrees, half a degree above the mean. But, still our coldest nights since 2003!
Some October temperature facts for Sydney:
- The mean maximum is 22 degrees C.
- The mean minimum is 14 degrees C.
- The highest temperature recorded was 38.2 degrees C (2004)
- The lowest recorded temperature was 5.7 degrees C (1918)
- Weatherzone
CMC takes 27W through Philippines & on to Vietnam, much faster than gfs, just as weak..ukmet (been doing well with mirinae) takes it on a wandering path, pretty south through Philippines. Ya'll saw my take after checking the WV..totally disagree with JMA.
just as i thought really
Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 01NOV)
==============================================
At 15:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 16.0N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 15 knots
`SANTI(Mirinae) NO SAINT A man sits on his bamboo bed stunned over whats left of his house in Lupang Arenda in Taytay, Rizal, after the area was hit Saturday by strong winds and big waves spawned by Typhoon ``Santi''(Mirinae) .
With Ondoy, Pepeng, it was rain; with Santi, its wind
By DJ Yap
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:49:00 11/01/2009
Filed Under: Weather, Santi, Ondoy, Pepeng
EARLIER, THE ENEMY WAS THE RAIN; NOW, IT'S THE WIND.
Strong winds brought by Typhoon tore through a lakeside community in Taytay town Saturday, crushing shanties, uprooting trees, and whipping up a torrent of waves and water lilies that swept the residents away.
For the second time in five weeks, Purok 8 of Lupang Arenda, a makeshift community of 4,000 people still reeling from the onslaught of Storm Ondoy, was plunged into despair.
It's like were being punished. The hardship just keeps coming, said Mariano de Quiros, a father of three. With Ondoy, it was the rain. Now, its the wind.
As many as 1,000 victims of Ondoy who had built temporary shelters on the 70-hectare stretch of land by Laguna de Bay now have to start from scratch.
There had not been much rain, but the wind was so strong it caused six-foot waves to crash into the reclaimed dike on which the shanties were standing, the residents said.
This was how Purok 8 chair Ernesto Narciso described Santi's visit:
We heard the wind howling. Then the lake receded by about two feet. Then the water came back.
The water lilies came with the waves, and everything was swept away like a tsunami.
Upside down
Like many other fathers, De Quiros, 44, had left his wife and children in the nearby evacuation center and braved the typhoon to protect the family possessions.
It came to a point when we were hanging on to the roofs to keep them from being blown away, he recalled.
Cherry Deinla, 24, a mother of three, said she spent the night with her husband and children at the evacuation center. When they returned to check on their house, they were shocked to find it upside down.
Barangay Sta. Ana Councilor Ernesto Aquino said the waves and the water lilies these carried kept pounding at the shanties, many of which were dragged by the current.
A whole house was yanked several meters away with the family still inside, Amelia Dao recalled. Rescuers on rubber boats eventually led them to safety, she said.
The wailing of children echoed through the dawn and early morning as the winds whistled, Dao said.
Submerged
By early morning, residents were picking through what was left of their homes.
Some houses were submerged with only the roofs protruding from the swamp riddled with water lilies and debris.
Plywood, galvanized iron sheets, wood planks and all sorts of furniture were strewn about everywhere.
We want to rebuild, but we don't have the materials. We want to leave but we have nowhere to go. We want to return to the province, but we have no home to go back to, lamented Algen Ibaoc, 51.
No more
Taytay Mayor Joric Gacula said as many as 1,000 families had lost their homes.
But accounting for all these will have to wait as the town prepares for the evacuation of more residents. There were no immediate reports of deaths.
The mayor said that despite the expected resistance from the community, Purok 8 will be no more.
I'll dismantle everything. We wont allow anyone to build here anymore, he said.
Lupang Arenda, with a population of 20,000, is composed of eight areas (or purok).
Purok 1-7 also regularly experience flooding, but Purok 8 is traditionally hit hardest.
By Alcuin Papa, Marlon Ramos, Inquirer Southern Luzon
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:26:00 11/01/2009
Filed Under: Weather, Flood, Disasters (general), Santi
MANILA, Philippines--With Typhoon “Santi” making its way out of the Philippines, there will be a spot of good weather for the faithful to troop to cemeteries for the traditional All Saints’ Day commemoration Sunday.
Santi’s making landfall coincided with the rush of vacationers who wanted to take advantage of the long All Saints’ Day holiday.
Nathaniel Cruz, deputy director of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), made this welcome declaration at a press briefing Saturday morning, after Santi (international name: Mirinae) pummeled Metro Manila and southern Luzon provinces, bringing powerful winds that toppled electric posts and rains that triggered flash floods and landslides.
“The war is over. The part of Santi in our lives is finished,” Cruz said.
Later on Saturday, Cruz said Santi had weakened into a tropical storm as it continued to move away.
He said it was expected to leave the Philippine area of responsibility at around 2 p.m. Sunday and to be 670 kilometers west northwest of Metro Manila by Monday afternoon.
“We see no reason for the storm to slow down or come back,” Cruz said, adding that storm signals had been lowered.
But at least 11 persons were reported killed and seven others reported missing when the typhoon pounded the Bicol and Calabarzon regions before quickly sweeping through the metropolis.
In Batangas, a father and his son went missing after flood waters caused a bridge connecting two barangays to collapse Saturday morning.
Supt. Manuel Abu, Batangas City police chief, identified the missing as Romulo Soriano, 40, and his 3-year-old son.
As of 6:30 p.m. Saturday, the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) reported only nine casualties—four dead, one injured and four missing.
But reports gathered by the Inquirer from local military, police and disaster officials showed that typhoon-related casualties continued to rise.
LPA approaching
After Sunday’s good weather, parts of northern and Central Luzon could experience occasional rain showers and cloudy skies beginning Monday because of an approaching low-pressure area (LPA), Pagasa warned.
Cruz said the LPA, located just outside the Philippine area of responsibility west of the country, would interact with the northeast monsoon to bring more rains.
He said there was a low possibility that the low-pressure area would develop into a tropical cyclone.
Still, Pagasa expected improved weather conditions Sunday in areas that bore the brunt of Santi’s fury—the Bicol region, southern Luzon including Cavite, Laguna, Batangas and Rizal, and Metro Manila.
“People who still want to go to cemeteries can still do so on Sunday,” he said, adding that any rain showers in Luzon would not be due to Santi.
Floods
Parts of Laguna—Calamba City and the towns of Pagsanjan, Sta. Cruz, Bay, Victoria, Liliw and Pila—were reported flooded as Santi crossed the province.
Pagasa’s Cruz said the flooding could have been caused by the heavy rains that further raised the water level at Laguna Lake.
The water level at the lake was already high as a result of the rains brought by Tropical Storm “Ondoy” on Sept. 26.
Senior Supt. Manolito Labador, police chief of Laguna, said Margie Taino, 8, and Julieta Zaguire, 79, drowned in separate flash floods in Pagsanjan, and Edcel Lovina, 12, drowned in Nagcarlan.
A yet unidentified man was reported missing after his jeep was swept away by flood waters in Liliw, according to Vicente Tomazar, Calabarzon Regional Disaster Coordinating Council director.
In the Bicol region, Raffy Alejandro of the Office of Civil Defense said seven persons died of various circumstances in Camarines Norte and Catanduanes.
The Army’s 2nd Infantry Division also reported that one of its rescue teams had found the body of a man who drowned while crossing a creek in Pililia, Rizal.
The missing persons include one in Muntinlupa City, one in Rizal, three in Pila, Laguna, and two in Batangas City.
According to the NDCC, floods forced some 116,000 persons to flee their homes.
Evacuations
The NDCC spokesperson, Lt. Col. Ernesto Torres, said 23,101 families displaced by the floods had been taken to 251 evacuation centers as of 12 noon Saturday.
Torres said Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro traveled to Sta. Cruz, Laguna, to check on the condition of the residents and the damage wrought on public infrastructure.
He said the NDCC and the military had sent disaster relief teams to the affected areas and distributed relief goods two days before Santi made landfall.
In Cavite City, 979 persons were evacuated, said Senior Supt. Alfred Corpus, Cavite police director.
Around 4,437 persons (or 1,116 families), mostly living in high-risk areas, were evacuated to safe grounds in Quezon.
According to Jay dela Fuente, chief of Manila’s social welfare office, families living in low-lying areas were evacuated from their homes at around 9 p.m. on Friday.
Some 1,500 families from Parola and Isla Puting Bato in Tondo, were taken to the Del Pan Sports Complex, and 400 families from the Baseco Compound to the covered court and the Corazon Aquino Elementary School.
Dela Fuente said calm was restored at around 9 a.m. yesterday, allowing residents to quickly repair loosened galvanized iron roofs and city government workers to cut down trees blocking the roads.
Power outages
Torres said strong winds brought by Santi toppled electric posts, causing power outages in Camarines Norte, Quezon, Rizal, Laguna and Metro Manila.
In Manila itself, commuters were forced to find other means of transport when the Light Rail Transit suspended its operations due to a power outage.
About 1.6 million or 35 percent of the 4.6 million registered customers of the Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) remained without power as of 10 a.m. Saturday.
“Felled trees, downed poles and wires, damaged electrical equipment and other debris that hit our facilities were the reasons behind the outages,” said Meralco external communication manager Joe Zaldarriaga.
But Meralco said it expected to fully restore power supply in all affected areas by today.
“Based on field reports we are receiving, we expect to reach a state of normalcy by Sunday,” said Meralco assistant vice president Alex Evangelista.
Stranded
According to the NDCC’s Torres, 8,567 passengers of commercial ships were stranded and more than 130 sea vessels were forced to seek refuge in various ports in Calabarzon and Bicol because of Santi.
About 7,000 passengers were stranded in various ports of Luzon and the Visayas, the Philippine Coast Guard said.
As of noon Saturday, the Coast Guard said 7,647 passengers remained stranded in Southern Tagalog, Bicol, Metro Manila, Western Visayas and Central Eastern Visayas.
Adm. Wilfredo Tamayo, the Coast Guard chief, said the number was expected to decline as he had ordered the resumption of interisland ferry services in Sorsogon, Masbate, Nueva Ecija and Albay.
Long lines of vehicles coming from Bicol and Manila were stranded in Atimonan, Quezon, because of flooding on the Maharlika Highway.
Chief Insp. Alvin Ruby Consolacion, Atimonan police chief, said the motorists had been stranded in the roadside barangays of San Isidro, Malinao, Tinandog and Tagbakin since 2 a.m. Saturday after the Maling river overflowed and spilled onto the highway.
Invest 1
Not only that, but I am finding evidence that it is becoming subtropical.
18 hours left.......
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 1 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST
OF BERMUDA. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
REFER TO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Update.....Watch the BOC and SubTropical Storm Ida coming as I posted last week.
Non-tropical low better organize
It has started raining pretty hard here now and it is windy and very overcast.
All family members are fine and healthy, a few trees down, power is now restored, rice crop is severely damaged due to flooding and winds, flooding has receded. Other than that, everything is fine.
Seismic Monitor
AOI
AOI
Humor in Comments
The danger in this lies in the perception of overreporting the dangers, compared to the actual experience of large storms. Many people have stopped paying attention to the doomsayers (Al Gore, et. al.)(not that tropical storm intensity can be connected to the perception of GW, AGW or Other GW), and go about their lives as if there are no "Monster" storms out there.
But one day there will be one, and thousands, or millions - landfall-dependent - of people will refuse to leave the area, due to the complacency that has been trained into them through the spouting of superlatives in an effort to gain the most coverage, or web-hits.
So, a suggestion: Lay off the labels and superlatives, and simply report the numbers in a realistic manner, that can be understood by someone who is trying to decide whether go fishing or evacuate. It may not make for web traffic, but it may just save a lot of lives in a year or ten.
Michael Werner
Kodiak, AK
Abu Dhabi, UAE
Savannah, GA (daughter in college)
A massive load off our minds.
Thats good news, Aussie! Thanks for the update.
Just looked at my blog again... looks like you got a load off your mind last night :)
One season of data won't 'explode' any TS intensification theory...and any approach that aggregates data takes years of information to begin to acquire statistical significance. So to draw conclusions from the 2009 hurricance season that have any relationship to theories on storm behavior and a changing climate regime...is just bad math.
And it didn't take an hour for that point to be proven.
Perhaps not, but it did take complete sentences. Perhaps you would like to make that attempt when commenting on the words of others.
See post 342.
I'm off to do yard work.
1800 UTC 31 October 2009 - clearly attached to the front
1200 UTC today - broken off
hahahaha yeah, me gots plenty more
Really good, Aussie. Hopefully, now this typhoon season can go into the history books.
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