Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras
Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.
Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.
The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I know you were just waiting to get an "Ida" in there lol. Big difference in resulting intensity for a small system over land. Ida think.
Some shear waiting for Ida if/when she goes back offshore from Honduras.
A weakening shortwave in the subtropical jet would seem to keep some strong shear near Ida.
A frame from the EPAC GFS 200mb showing the shortwave axis near 100W.
Valid 12Z Thursday:
The complication-there is a strong polar shortwave progged to dip down over the SW shortly after. This will push up a ridge ahead of it. "Shortwave ridging" they call it. As the ridge builds, the stronger upper level winds will lift north allowing better conditions. Or at least close enough to consider this as a possibility.
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Lake Charles...
SHORT TERM...WILL KEEP INSERTING PATCHY FOG OVER AREAS WITH RIVER
FLOODING WHICH HAS BEEN OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT LATELY. THAT
INCLUDES THE ALEXANDRIA AREA WITH THE RED RIVER, THE ATCHAFALAYA,
THE SABINE RIVER ALONG THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER AND THE NECHES.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NOW LOOKS WET AS MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE COMBINED WITH THE ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE ABOUT IDA WILL ALL
BE PICKED UP BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT SUNDAY INTO
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.
Flooding getting bad.
HYDROLOGY...MAJOR FLOODING ON THE SABINE RIVER NEAR BON WEIR AND
LATER ON NEAR DEWEYVILLE.
..MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE CALCASIEU
RIVER NEAR OBERLIN.
..MINOR FLOODING ON THE RED RIVER AT
ALEXANDRIA AS WELL AS THE CALCASIEU AT OAKDALE AND KINDER AS
WELL AS OLD TOWN BAY. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO ON TAP FOR THE
NECHES RIVER NEAR TOWN BLUFF
Click on tropical points. Ida think she's moving just a bit to the right of track. Still looks like landfall will happen soon.
There ya go, press.
From the Good Doc's blog...
...rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season...
Probably not totally dried out from the stalling rainmaker of two weeks ago.
65 mph pressure 995 mb.
To me, it looks to be moving exactly on forecast points!
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009
...IDA APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AT 10 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN
ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM...NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA
EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND IDA COULD APPROACH
HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL.
...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.5N 83.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
All comments welcome and my sympathies to any on here being affected by this storm.
WEDNESDAY 7 PM
DOUBLE TROUBLE IN THE TROPICS.
Ida is officially recognized as a storm. Obviously at 996 mb with the first recon it had been a storm for a while, but you knew that from this morning.
The first problem for the US is not even being analyzed by TPC. The disturbed area in the southern gulf. This should feedback, and named or not produce gales and heavy rain over the northern gulf in the northwest gulf and into the Louisiana coastal waters Saturday and Sunday. Whether this gets named or not, its a problem and the first one.
However its Ida that could be a big problem. I dont think it goes nearly as far inland as TPC has it on their forecast, but stays near or off the coast of central America as it comes north. Waiting for Ida is the northwest caribbean and water that has the most heat potential in the western hemisphere. So this could develop in to a major hurricane and be in the gulf next week.
A slow moving storm in the gulf would weaken before landfall. In the last 30 years Jeanne in 1980 and Kate in 1985 are hurricanes in the gulf in November. Jeanne never made landfall as cold air entered the storm and weakened it. Kate was a cat 3 that hit as s 1.5. But storms in the gulf have to move fast as upwelling and cooler air from the troughs that would cause it to move toward the coast anyway would weaken it. If they stall, then it would spread out an weakens to a large powerful non tropical storm with a large area of gales but the focus of fury would fall apart.
The interesting thing is that these storms are at the "front" of what may be the start of winter... that after they go by, the weather turns to winter in a distinct way.. Since its later in the year than in other cases like this, we may simply start winter over the east once these goes by.
ciao for now *****
Is crazy looking. But from that, I would infer that the ridging behind the next trough (the polar shortwave) will be very strong. Very strong ridging departing to the east with "Ida" in the col between. Steering could get weak and rainfall could get strong. The "col" or saddle in this case would be centered over TN/N AL. May take a bit to decide where it wants to go.
If it were not for the deadly rain potential, Ida wish for dissapation over Central America. Could happen as the storm gets knocked down and follows a pretty fair indication of easterly flow-bringing it even further inland.
18Z GFS 850mb Valid Tuesday 12Z
All these anomalies should force the NAO to tilt strongly negative. I wouldn't be too surprised if even Orlando sees highs in the 40's 2 weeks from now!
O.K. nuff said...that's my entertainment for the evening.
Link
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It looks like a large eye has closed off on the entire Western side. Should have a cane here soon.
Ida, Ida, Ida... Watcha gonna do? What tricks do you have up your sleeve for the forecasters... Only time will tell.
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Drak...what direction do you see for Ida in the next 24 hours? C'mon....I do respect your opinion, and I know it's a high uncertainty forecast.
its awfully quiet in here tonight
Suspection is she meanders for the next day under 6 mph to the NNW along the coast and maybe going onshore just south of the Nicaragua-Honduras boarder for 6-10 hrs on Thurs afternoon-night...before moving offshore that night or on Friday...
With that said..we have plenty of time to watch this...People in the GOM need to watch but its 3 days too early to tell if this will make the GOM in 4-5 days from now..
It's been a long day and we could have many of those lol, until the 1am advisory comes out, there isnt too much info to look at
some probably just getting a rest
yeah, good call,
a lot of learning today
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