Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras
Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.
Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.
The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It was a cat 1 when it crossed over us too. I work on the weather equipment on Columbus AFB and we had 75 mph sustained winds and gusts over 100
I hope you start updating your own personal blog soon because everything you've said tonight is clear and makes sense...
uh oh, am I on the right blog? (little j/k...very little)
I suppose it wouldn't hurt to begin blogging here again, though most of my thoughts are posted on another website, if you're interested.
amazing!
storms in November in that part of the world have a strong tendency to go north or nne along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras, so that movement cannot be totally ruled out.
Also, steering currents can change, and if the Bay of Campeche non-tropical system strengthens, it could exert a north to even nne pull of the system, but I would venture to guess that would occur after the storm moves inland by a good amount.
Blog Update
No kidding. Have they at least put Steve Lyons in the studio tonight? Looking at the time, I'm tardy, and would have just missed Tropical Update if they had it.
Oh yes, please post or send WU mail, whichever you are most comfortable with. And thank you.
I'm done too. Night all
its unreal how far these storms travel once inland. cool job you got. sounds interesting.
Not much doubt where it is going when looking at this...
(why did a storm have to form right when i have two tests 2 days in a row!!! D: Commenting back later probably)
Us old fellows call it quits early... its all of 9 pm here :)
that looks as though the eye is still very far from land. is that a updated shot or is that old? what is the movement of ida. i read on here that the movement was now nw. i don't see any northerly movement but i can't really tell where the eye is on most of the images I've looked at. where do you think it will go and how strong do you see it getting?
lol...I napped. That's what us ol' gals do. :)
GOM IR Loop
It is off shore a good bit...probabaly 9hrs from shore......which really is a long time for it to further get stronger into a possible cane....
actually no she isn't, the circulation is completely offshore still
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 NOV 2009 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 12:34:24 N Lon : 83:12:19 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.4 3.5 4.3
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -71.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.1C
Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
WunderMap®
Bluefields,Nicaragua
its all good :)
i know it looks like that to me too. i think the eye is still offshore also. how strong is it now? is it a cat 1 yet?
Tropical WunderMap®
Flagged. (Just kidding...Admin, just kidding...)
Note the 5 Tops in the right front Quad Popping..away from her center.
Maybe close. Pretty hard to tell.....
looks like a hurricane
it is
TFP"s available
12.5N/83W
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