Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras
Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.
Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.
The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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12.5N/83W
There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.
Jeff Masters
That is actaully a Subtropical Low.....Not a depression or storm but, a Low.....Not sure how that is going to play out with this yet.....funny that darn thing just might develop some also.....its getting better every day.
update should be interesting.
Oh, TampaSpin, thank you for answering that question... I was chomping at the bit as I also wanted to know the answer, and what to call that mess (subtropical low).
Seems to me that Ida is starting to stall, which holy cow look at that is what the GFDL, GFS and UKMET all say would happen. You know those models someone said were dead wrong lol
Are you using the NASA goes East.....
From 04:45 UTC..
TS IDA Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Dr. Masters is calling it ExtraTropical.....he is probably more accurate since it is attached to a frontal boundray yet.
Where?
I havent seen them update the ATCF info.
The Center is Wowza-Ville for the Islanders..a Long way from Dawn too.
Link
Surprised noone posted this
000
WTNT31 KNHC 050531
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
100 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009
...IDA NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING
INLAND...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...85 KM...NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND IDA COULD
APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IDA MOVES INLAND OVER NICARAGUA LATER
TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL.
...SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.5N 83.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
Location: 12.5°N 83.2°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
it is right there. i just looked at the map patrap posted and it also looks as though the eye wall may have taken a step back as it approached landfall. i may be fussed at for making this comment on here, but i have noticed that hurricanes do that sometimes. they seem to kind of bounce off land as they approach, or as the eye wall scrapes land mass. did ida just do that? i am no met. and i have only been watching storms for a while. i really know nothing about them except for what i see. and it looks like ida just bounced.
We're actually talking about forecast models in one of my Atmospheric Science courses right now. I wonder what we'll be talking about tomorrow morning...
IDA 00Z Dynamic Run
Goodnight.
??????? Je ne comprende pas! Heart-attack model?
NHC says its not a hurricane
Where are you getting this from.
I see nothing that suggests its a Hurricane.
And I see nothing that suggests its stationary.
Yes.
Thats ok....ya i sorta agree with you.....depends on the direction a storm is making landfall.......the drag resistance from land will cause a storm to jump and bounce before moving on in just from the force form the steering winds.......if steering is light which it is the friction with land could cause a bounce affect....coming from that direction it would normally bounce NW from what i have seen in the past....good example was when Katrina made that sudden little jog to the right some just before landfall......i believe that too was called by the friction of the counter clockwise spin....
Nothing official, no.
Ughhhh. I would be but I have a test tomorrow. I will have a belayed party. To celebrate, massive flooding and death? It actually makes no sense now that i think about it...
Then please....for the sanity of the blog add an IMO after those kinds of posts.
might be best to make sure people know it is your opinion, the way you stated it, some could have taken it as a fact
From 04:45 UTC..
TS IDA Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
From 05:15
.."Swooosh,ahhhhh".........
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 NOV 2009 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 12:21:04 N Lon : 83:05:25 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.4 3.6 4.4
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -76.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
Anyway, goodnight. It is a hurricane and stationary, imo. ;)
I know your right in terms of the impacts it will have on those poor people of Nicaragua and Honduras. Just thought I would throw that out there for kicks since the Yankees just won the World Series.
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