Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras
Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.
Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.
The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I know your right in terms of the impacts it will have on those poor people of Nicaragua and Honduras. Just thought I would throw that out there for kicks since the Yankees just won the World Series.
I agree that its unofficially a Hurricane.
Anyways, Goodnight.
Yeah I think its call revenge
I usually like to drink when a storm is landfalling, but i havent this year, for obvious reasons. I think it's because I imagine myself in the path of it on the coast and how terrible it would be... Though i do want to experience a ~75mph hurricane myself one day just to see.
edit: hmm, avatar vanished. Also, repost since i have it open:
The GT stands for Georgetown the capital of Guyana South America and during the socialist years the African American people had control of the country and would call the Indians who came from India as share croppers Coolie's and bai is a slang for boy. I hope that helps.
TS IDA Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
Someone else is hosting it and it just scripts to update and animate as a .gif? I dont know, i just use it.
The U of Miami Host that site,here
LMAO...that is great description from a true south cracker....LOL
Surely we could fund a Corn Island Doppler,..I mean how much could a Lil Invest pay off in the long run,..sure would be Nice tonight.
Oh ok I see, thank you.
Yvw,glad to help.
I think you forgot about short lived TS Claudette. Formed around the same time Ana and Bill were out in the Atlantic
I think TS Claudette hit Florida..
Ana made landfall in the islands
Bill made landfall in Newfoundland
Claudette made landfall in the Florida Panhandle
Erika also made landfall in the Islands
Ida seems to be reaching more N that NNW like earlier. Still looks like it will be hampered by land some shortly.
Funny how it seems sometimes they sense the coast intuitively and maybe avoid it ,as a self defesne mechanism almost,read a PDF on that by a outlier Guy..once.
Cant find it ,..
This is why it will take off once it gets back into waters after landfall.......Look at the GulfStream.....It will go through some of the warmest waters in the entire Atlantic basin....If shear drops......Ida will explode and intensify very quickly.....
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
From 05:15
Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
BAMD INCREASING 27.4 -1 -1 -1 -1
LBAR INCREASING 44.8 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5B INCREASING 47.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
HWRF INCREASING 59.6 -1 -1 -1 -1
GFDL INCREASING 78.5 -1 -1 -1 -1
But Im still Looking for a different solution come the 06 run..
This ones "too" creepy and Im not looking at it,..
I suspect we may seem some avoidance here. Though don't think Ida is getting past where Nicaragua curves out to the NNE without tasting some land. Probibly not so mountainous more to the NE side.
The one going to LA is our top preformer so far. mmf5E goes to Tampa. The Blue is AVNO, though not a major did well today (better than LBARS) & has done pretty good this season overall.
BAMD is for a stronger storm.....the one that is farthest East.....go to my site.....you can see it easier....
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