Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras
Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.
Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.
The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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She's not in here very often, in DocMaster's Blog. Normally keeps to her own blog where its, errr...safer.
LOL...exactly.
Hoping for no effects for your area.
work calls, ya'll have a great day.
I agree with you. Looks to be moving NNW. As it does so the Nicaraguan coast juts out slightly further to the east. Even if it turns due north that would keep it inland.
It would have to turn NNE to get out over water.
Good morning and have a nice day.
Nice looking dog you've got as your avatar.
If it's there then it has moved due west since 4AM...I don't believe so ..456 and others see north and very little west component IMO.
I haven't been on in about a week or so (even to lurk), just got really busy (good thing). Looks like Ida is a reminder to the celebrations of predicted storm numbers that the season isn't over yet. The irony is this could well be the most "interesting" TC this year.
The pink (changing) line is the NHC forecast track (from the SFWMD).
Overall, NNW or North she certainly is not going wnw. The northerly move will change the models to the right IMO. The weakness in the Gulf is having more influence than originally thought
Aqua Canine, my original avatar.
Now really gone!
Storm...Ida will be north of the forecast points. Do you agree?
6Z GFDL on Ida.
GFDL is determined to do some serious harm to someone! HWRF has trended to the east.
This is going to be interesting over the next several days!
It was 150 kt in an earlier run.
Each has been consistent, but different.
I'm here. checked in a few times yesterday. woke up this morning to some strong showers but very still. no wind. we have had an extremely dry summer and early fall.
there were many comments yesterday about the mountains... there are no high mountains on the edge of nica with honduras, its all plains. the mountains start way further to the west. so nothing to hamper ida's progression thru the corner of nica/hond.
ill be here all day checking in. looks like a large band will mover over us in about 3 hours. rg
7:00 AM EST Thu Nov 5
Location: 12.8°N 83.4°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009
...IDA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IDA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A
HURRICANE.
AT 700 AM...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS
NORTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA BORDER NORTHWARD TO BLUEFIELDS AND FROM NORTH OF PUERTO
CABEZAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...100 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA AND ABOUT
85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...IDA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IDA MOVES INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY.
...SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.8N 83.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN/BLAKE
Link
Doesn't make sense.
Now, if they said it had temporarily gone stationary but was expected to resume a NW track, I could understand.
Then again it's the NHC. Looks further west to me and the cloud tops have warmed in the past few hours.
Their the experts and I'm just a blogger, so props to Ida.
As expected from Ida by remaining over water a bit longer it has now gained HUR Status.
7:45HR to go before next HHunter, that's if they don't decide to go in sooner.
good call
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