Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras
Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.
Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.
The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.
Jeff Masters
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TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Never say never...we are usually lucky this time of year due to cold front coming through....but you never know.
Whoa! and the only other one to hit the Gulf states other than Florida, was 1985. This is a rare event if it does enter the Gulf. Hope Dr. Master's is correct! Thanks for the info.
996.1 mb
(~ 29.41 inHg)
Shear will continue to remain favorable as long as surface convergence remains firm over the area. Strong surface convergence also causes a positive feedback at the upper atmosphere when the mid to upper levels are not capped.
Interesting the contrast from before... it was all over land now... it wants to keep it offshore like NAM.
That was cool! Just as cool as TS Ida forming within the last 48 hrs
my bad didn't see it at first. Will deflect the shear a bit. Would expect slow strengthening then.
so no rapid intensification there, which I find good.
WARNING ATCN MIL 11L NAT 091104201056
2009110418 11L IDA 002 01 305 05 SATL 020
T000 118N 0823W 035 R034 035 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 124N 0832W 050 R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 130N 0841W 040 R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 137N 0846W 030
T048 145N 0850W 025
T072 160N 0855W 025
T096 180N 0860W 035
T120 205N 0865W 040
AMP
#0001
NNNN
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM IDA (11L) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM IDA (11L) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 11.8N 82.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 82.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 12.4N 83.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.0N 84.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.7N 84.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.5N 85.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.0N 85.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.0N 86.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.5N 86.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 82.7W OR APPROX 200NM NW OF
PORTOBELO, PM. 12 FT SEAS: 45NM NE, 30NM SE, 30NM SW,
45NM NW. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050301Z, 050901Z, 051501Z AND
052101Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
1109110300 99N 808W 25
1109110306 100N 810W 25
1109110312 101N 811W 25
1109110318 103N 811W 25
1109110400 106N 810W 25
1109110406 110N 813W 30
1109110412 115N 819W 35
1109110418 118N 823W 50
1109110418 118N 823W 50
Kate's eye went right over me here in Providenciales
What does that indicate?
Formation of an eye.
Higher winds.
finding flight level winds of over 70mph
Still no vort message, well i'll look back after dinner.
56 knots
(~ 64.4 mph)
-------------------------
10 second Flight level
75 knots
(~ 86.2 mph)
Very good! thanks
Should be out pretty quick
Probably a 65-70 mph TS.
not atm no 65mph is likely little chance of 70mph but i'm 95% sure it won't be higher than 65mph by 7.
edit: maybe i'm being a bit too conservative: i'll lower it to 85%.
Category one... we had "gusts" up to 100 mph
Only time in my life I have watched the needle on a barometer move without tapping the glass. (Watching by candlelight on my boat while the trailing edge of the eye passed over me). I was safe in a canal, 2 miles inland.
Highest surface one I see is 64.4 mph
TROPICAL STORM IDA
5 pm Storm Track:
***New Graphics***
(please give feedback)
but its already a 65mph tropical storm
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 22:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Tropical Depression: Number 11 (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 21:44:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 12°02'N 82°43'W (12.0333N 82.7167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 302 miles (487 km) to the NW (314°) from Panamá, Panamá.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 657m (2,156ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the S (170°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 258° at 40kts (From between the WSW and W at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the S (169°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 755m (2,477ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 769m (2,523ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:44:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the north quadrant at 21:48:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Uh no its not.
No, it's only at 60 mph. right now, it might be around 65-70 mph. by 7 p.m.
Now down to 16NM
Viewing: 51 - 101
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