A quiet 2009 for natural disasters
It was a relatively quiet year globally for natural disasters in 2009. According to Munich Re insurance company, the death toll from 2009 natural disasters was approximately 10,000, well below the average 75,000 deaths per year seen over the decade of the 2000s. Damage from 2009 natural disasters was about $50 billion, compared to the decadal average of $115 billion, and far below the $200 billion in destruction wrought by 2008's natural disasters. The most costly disaster of 2009 was Winter Storm Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, causing $5.1 billion in damage. The deadliest weather-related disaster was Category 2 Typhoon Ketsana, which killed 694 people in the Philippines and Southeast Asia. Category 2 Typhoon Morakot was a close second, with 614 fatalities, primarily in Taiwan. The deadliest natural disaster overall was the magnitude 7.6 earthquake that shook the Indonesian island of Sumatra on 30 September, killing nearly 1,200 people.
Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.
I'll be back Tuesday with my selection for the top global weather event of 2009: the Horn of Africa drought.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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How many posts does it take you to say it's about money?
Happy Dance :)
I read that somewhere once.
Right near Henry's Bar,er..in case I got to er,relieve myself..
Practising for Cancun
Ummm El pofto el gondo
None of the above. But you made your point the first time, and repeating it is not going to get those who disagree you to change their minds.
We'll see, I guess. It will be moving into a strong confluent flow as the southern stream and the northwest flow come together over the Gulf. So it may very well flatten out before it gets here. Both the NAM and the GFS show it well on the 0hr/analysis-but both lose it. And the NW flow is of a dry and subsident nature.
But it is a healthy looking little bugger!
Link
As long as it snows in Florida.... I don't care if its the flamingo done on high wire wearing a kilt and bagpipes... its the thought that counts :)
Link
I get the hard copy magazine delivered. If you want to read whole articles on-line, then you will probably just have to provide your e-mail address.
It has always has been the true believers that spout this bogus science the most, the natural
cycles will rule the day, nuff said.
definatelly see flurries for tampa tonight..
THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE GULF.
CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW...SO JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING AT ALL. CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE
GULF WATERS HAVE RISEN 2 OR 3 DEGREES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND ARE IN THE LOWER 50S. EVEN TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT THE
COAST ARE 50 DEGREES AT CLEARWATER BEACH...48 AT PORT RICHEY...
AND EVEN 45 DEGREES AT CEDAR KEY. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NATURE COAST AND BEFORE
DAWN FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
Richard Alley on Earth's Biggest Climate Control Knob
Posted on Dec 28, 2009 11:19:29 PM | NASA's Earth Science News Team | 1 Comments
Click here for a multimedia presentation of Richard Alley's AGU talk. (Credit: AGU)
Scientists aren't known for being the savviest of public speakers, but Penn State's Richard Alley is that rare researcher who knows how to give a talk. Alley -- who's willing to sing, dance, and gesticulate vigorously to get a point across -- gave a lecture about carbon dioxide to an overflow crowd of scientists at the American Geophysical Union meeting this year that's well worth watching.
Blogger and University of Toronto computer scientist Steve Easterbrook has an excellent blow-by-blow of the talk, but the heart of it came down to this point, which Alley made on his last slide:
An increasing body of science indicates that CO2 has been the most important controller of Earth's climate.
If you want the details, (and the details are a pleasure to sit through in this case because of Alley's gregarious speaking style) AGU has posted video and slides of the full talk. Still want to know more about carbon dioxide? NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) released new details about the distribution of carbon dioxide in the troposphere, the region of Earth's atmosphere that is located between 5 to 12 kilometers, or 3 to 7 miles, above Earth's surface. (JPL also released a ten question quiz about the gas that you can access here).
Meanwhile, Alley participated in a NASA science update back in 2005 that explored the nature of sea level rise, a topic that NASA researchers continue to investigate and that you can explore interactively using our Sea Level Viewer.
--Adam Voiland, NASA's Earth Science News Team
Tampa is in the mid- upper 30s though.. so if that moisture gets to tampa, they could see some wet snow flakes
You're going to wait up all night for this, aren't you. LOL j/k
Winter haze piles up against the Himalayas above the Indo-Gangetic Plain. (Credit: Earth Observatory)
What On Earth
Smelling the Air in Kanpur
Posted on Dec 20, 2009 09:04:04 PM | NASA's Earth Science News Team |
When the plane was about 30 minutes from touchdown, we could start to smell the air,said David Giles. It was shocking.
Giles -- a young scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center -- was en route to Kanpur, a large Indian industrial city on the banks of the Ganges river. Dust and soot tend to hover over the region, which is sandwiched between the sharp edge of the Tibetan Plateau to the north and the highlands of the Deccan Plateau to the south.
Theres so much soot in the air that satellites can routinely see a cloud of haze blanketing the region.
The bowl-like Indo-Gangetic Plain is second only to some parts of China for having the heaviest load of air pollution in the world. In the spring, when dust blows in from the deserts to the West, aerosols from factories, buses and trucks, and fires are especially heavy. So much so, in fact, that NASA researchers suggested recently that dust and soot may be driving the retreat of Himalayan glaciers by altering the monsoon.
Giles was in Kanpur to man one of NASA's AERONET stations in the region as part of the ongoing TIGERZ campaign. He spent 17 days in Kanpur hauling the instrument around and getting harassed by local police officers, the occasional herd of roaming sheep and dust storms. In between all that, he spent the bulk of his time collecting measurements to determine whether dust and soot can glom onto one another to create new types of hybrid aerosols.
They do, he found, a seemingly mundane point but one that's of considerable interest to the scientists trying to sort out how these two types of aerosols affect the climate. He presented his results in detail this week to colleagues at the American Geophysical Union fall meeting in San Francisco.
I nabbed him after his talk in the afternoon, to have a beer and talk through his travels. I asked him what was the most memorable part of the trip to India. Well, it was unbelievably hot, he said with a laugh. Temperatures routinely hit 105 degrees."
And how was the air? You'd get used to it after a while,said Giles, but, at first, in the taxi, we were holding our sleeves over our mouths just to avoid breathing the stuff.
*************************************************************************************************** ***
Amazing stuff,eh..reading and all.
nope, I don't live in Tampa, but its interesting =D
Very astute observations regarding the shortwave moving onshore the SO CAL coast.
We will see how the models handle that piece of energy. If that shortwave doesn't flatten out in time over the next 48 hours, then the system foreact to develop in the Western GOM will have the needed trigger to generate into a rather decent system.
Watch the models closely the next 36-48 bours.
Current temp now down to 29.4 degrees.
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
419 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-051145-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
419 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010
...CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR MID TO LATE WEEK SNOWS...AND
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE SNOW...
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SUGGEST MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
MIGHT OCCUR...WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 OR 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. IF THIS FORECAST STAYS ON TRACK...A WINTER STORM WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
IMPACTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT COLD
CONDITIONS THAT ARE IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW
COULD OCCUR DURING OR BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY. TO MAKE
MATTERS WORSE...ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
BE WHIPPED AROUND BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FINAL INSULT WILL COME WITH A HUGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...AND LAST RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK IF
WE GET ANY SNOW COVER TO SPEAK OF.
Sorry but I think the temps in Tampa are in the low 40's from what I just saw on the weather channel. I don't think the chances are good for flurries. Would be nice to see but...
Here visiting the in-laws in Indy and they are calling for 2.9" on Thursday. Should be interesting at the least.
Updated: 6 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
32.7 F
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: 30 °F
Humidity: 57%
Dew Point: 19 °F
Wind: 4.5 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 10.5 mph
Pressure: 30.36 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
AS OF 11 PM
TAMPA 38 33 82 320 at 5 30.16 1021.2 10 35 SCT ...KTPA
TAMPA/MACDILL 48 40 74 290 at 4 30.16 1021.5 10 43 BKN ...KMCF
TAMPA/VANDENBER 32 32 100 0 at 0 30.16 10 CLR ...KVDF
for what?
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010
...INFORMATION ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD...
BEGINNING TOMORROW...PADUCAH KENTUCKY AND EVANSVILLE INDIANA WILL
HAVE SEEN 5 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES NEVER CLIMBING ABOVE 32
DEGREES F. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT 7
DAYS WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...BRINGING THE TOTAL TO 12+ DAYS
STRAIGHT THAT THE MERCURY HAS FAILED TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 DEGREES.
LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORD BOOKS...WE HAVE OBTAINED THE TOP 5 WINTER
EVENTS WHEN PADUCAH AND EVANSVILLE HAD THE SAME SCENARIO. THE DATES
BEGIN IN 1937 AND CONTINUE TO THE PRESENT.
IN PADUCAH:
RANK # OF DAYS END DATE
1 - 13 DAYS ENDING 1/21/1978
2 - 11 DAYS ENDING 1/03/2001
3 - 11 DAYS ENDING 1/28/1940
4 - 10 DAYS ENDING 12/24/1989
5 - 7 DAYS ENDING 1/11/1979
THIS CURRENT STREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TOP 5 BEFORE IT IS OVER.
IN EVANSVILLE:
RANK # OF DAYS END DATE
1 - 18 DAYS ENDING 1/03/2001
2 - 17 DAYS ENDING 1/23/1918
3 - 16 DAYS ENDING 2/10/1978
4 - 14 DAYS ENDING 1/22/1978
5 - 13 DAYS ENDING 1/30/1940
2010 IN EVANSVILLE ALSO COULD EASILY MOVE INTO THE TOP 5 AS THIS
COLD SNAP IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
The moment comet was eaten up after orbiting too close to the sun
By Scott Warren
Last updated at 1:42 AM on 05th January 2010
Overnight: Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 14. West northwest wind around 10 mph.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 23. West northwest wind between 8 and 11 mph.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 9. West northwest wind between 5 and 8 mph.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 25. West northwest wind between 5 and 7 mph.
Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 19. West northwest wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday: Snow. High near 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 11.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 17.
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 21.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 25.
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE OUTLYING MODEL...TAKING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM A LITTLE
FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH OF INDIANA THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE
ECMWF HAS COME INTO LINE WITH THE GEM...AND THE NAM IS TURNING OUT
AS EXPECTED...ALL TAKING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. THIS WOULD PUT THE
FORECAST AREA RIGHT UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET...AROUND 100 TO 150 KTS.
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CONTINUES TO BE DECENT IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS DEFINITELY
INHIBITING PWATS....QPFS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 0.15 TO 0.25.
NONETHELESS...THE SNOWFALL COULD START AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THE DURATION OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY
A BIG ROLE IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY...STILL THINKING IN THE
3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY
COLD AIR BEHIND IT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE THROUGH ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRESH SNOW COVER WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.
Fox and Bay News 9 has 40
Accuweather has 32
Weather Channel has 43
NWS and wunderground has 40
Accuweather always hypes things and the weather channel must be reporting closer to the water.
I live in Largo and just went outside to my amazement it seems warmer than about 7-8 o'clock. I see their is precip. moving in will have to see if it reaches the ground and how far inland it goes.
NWS St. Louis: VERY COLD SFCS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO EASILY
ACCUMULATE AND NATURE OF STORM FAVORS HI LIQUID-TO-SNOW RATIOS...
PERHAPS AS HI AS 20:1...BUT PRIMARILY USED A MORE CONSERVATIVE 15:1
FOR THIS FORECAST. A WINTER WX ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE ADDRESSED ON TUESDAY.
NWS Central Illinois: BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN
06-18Z ON THURSDAY...WITH 3-4 INCH VALUES FAIRLY COMMON WITH DRY
SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20 TO 1. WINDS EXPECTED TO CRANK UP FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF MAIN SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.
NWS Paducah Kentucky: NOT LOOKING AT TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF HERE...ON THE
ORDER OF .20 TO .25 LIQUID EQUIVALENT. HOWEVER...WITH THE AIR MASS
BEING SO COLD...WOULD LIKELY SEE OVER 15/1 RATIO ON THE SNOW
AMOUNTS...WHICH PUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH RANGE.
NWS Louisville Kentucky: WITH
SNOW RATIOS IN 15:1 TO 20:1 RANGE AND WITH THE PROJECTED QPF FROM
THE 12Z MODELS...SNOW ACCUMS FOR WED NIGHT - THURS NIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME
NWS Indianapolis: THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS DEFINITELY
INHIBITING PWATS....QPFS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 0.15 TO 0.25.
NONETHELESS...THE SNOWFALL COULD START AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THE DURATION OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY
A BIG ROLE IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY...STILL THINKING IN THE
3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.
BTW, what does 15-20 to 1 ratio mean?
Viewing: 551 - 601
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