The Deep South shivered through another frigid morning today, with low temperature records crumbling again over much of Florida. Lakeland hit 27°F, smashing the old record of 34°F; Melbourne hit 28°F, eclipsing the old record of 32°F; and West Palm Beach bottomed out at 37°F, besting the old record of 38°F. The cold wave is being driven by an unusual sharp and persistent kink in the jet stream that is being blocked from moving by a strong ridge of high pressure over Greenland. As a result, an exceptionally strong surface high pressure of 1055 mb over the North Central U.S. is pushing large amounts of cold, Arctic air southwards from Canada. No coldest January temperature records have been set yet from the cold blast, but the 500 largest U.S. cities have been averaging about 11 new daily low temperature records per day the first five days of January, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold will ease Friday in the Deep South, but return with a vengeance Saturday night though Monday morning, as another push of cold air descending from Canada promises to bring a cold wave that will approach the December 1989 and January 1977 cold waves in intensity, and may being some new all-time January low temperature records to the South.
Colder in Florida than Alaska and Greenland
The sharp kink in the jet stream has brought record warm temperatures to a few stations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest this week, making much of coastal Alaska warmer than Florida. Cold Bay, Alaska, set a record high yesterday of 47°F, after recording a low temperature of 30°F. This made Cold Bay warmer than Pensacola, Florida, which had a high of 47°F and a low of 24°F. In fact, most of Florida--including Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, and Tallahassee--recorded lows at or below the 27°F low recorded in Anchorage, Alaska yesterday. The jet stream kink has also brought temperatures more than 30°F above average to Greenland. The temperature in Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 10am EST today was 46°F, far warmer than most of Florida.
Figure 1. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first three day of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Southeast U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Snow in Florida?
It doesn't snow very often in Florida, and the Wikipedia list of snow events in Florida lists only seven such events over the decade of the 2000s. This weekend's cold wave may be able to generate some snow over isolated regions of Central Florida, though it appears that the odds of this happening are less than 30%. The most widespread snowfall in Florida history occurred on January 19, 1977, when snow fell over much of the state, with flurries as far south as Homestead. Snow flurries also fell on Miami Beach for the only time in recorded history.
Figure 2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for September 9, 2009 - January 6, 2010 (black line) and forecast from the GFS model (red lines). The NAO index was strongly negative, near -2.0, for much of December and January. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
The winter cold blast: blame the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Why has the winter been so cold over Eastern North America and northern Europe? Well, don't blame El Niño. El Niño winters are rarely this cold. Instead, blame the the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.
The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen a very strong negative NAO, causing much of our cold weather over Eastern North America and Europe. The NAO index for the month of December 2009 was -1.93, which is the third lowest NAO index since 1950 for a winter month (December, January, or February). The only winter months with a lower NAO index were February 1978 (-2.20) and January 1963 (-2.12). January 1963 was one of the coldest months on record in the UK and the Eastern U.S.. February 1978 was the coldest February on record for five U.S. states, and featured the historic blizzards in both the U.S. and UK. The NAO so far for January 2010 has continued to stay strongly negative, ranging between -1.5 and -2.1. However, the blocking ridge over Greenland is forecast to weaken next week, allowing the sharp kink in the jet stream to straighten out. This will increase the NAO index to more typical values, allowing a return of more ordinary winter weather to the U.S. and Europe.
Jeff Masters
from our porch view of sunrise this morning..totally different from the 'splendiferous' shots 1-8 taken from the top of our field overlooking the mountains
of winter in South Mississippi.
Like sand dunes or Antelope Canyon
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Thanks Bordonaro for the comeback. My citrus trees are taking a beating here in c.fl. I pulled the grapefruit off and made juice that I'm freezing but I think the navels are going to be a loss.
The Niceville page on this website is reporting light snow.
Actually clicking around I've found some reports of it reaching the ground.
im only seeing sleet at best mane.. i live right near niceville in Bluewater bay.. but we might get a flurrie or 2.. im not ruling it out.. but its goin to ice over in the early morning.. if anyone has to work.. be careful!
maybe we might see sum in the half hour or less if that..
That's going to be the real bad part...and nobody besides us seems to be aware of that. I sure as hell hope it doesn't get TOO bad out there...
Updated: 13 sec ago
Light snow
Windchill: 3 C
Weather channel radar is showing snow headed toward your direction:)
ya the other day when i was heading to work.. I was heading toward my stop sign b4 i get out of my neigborhood, right then i hit sum ice that i didnt see.. i start sliding all the way past the stop sign into the highway.. good thing there wasnt even any cars coming or i would b toast.. but i was like shiznit.. that gave me a scare for sure..
hey thats me but its not really snowin tho.. possibilitiy ;)
Have a great night /early morning everyone. Tomorrow really will be a interesting day assessing the model runs and this potential rare event for Florida this weekend.
In Hobbs, Roswell and Artesia, NM are reporting light snow. I also believe once that short-wave crossing NM moves east of TX, the trough digging into SW TX at the Polar Jet Level will pull a bigger chunk of the Siberian Monster further south.
My barometer here was at 30.45" at 2PM CST,on 1-6, now at about 12:45AM CST 1-7 my barometer is at 30.61" and rising.
Interesting feature taking shape over New Mexico and W. Texas... Moisture is on the increase over central Texas, and the entire mess is trucking generally towards the ESE, and the NW GOM....
Was this particular feature picked up in the forecast??? Could this bring frozen precip across the entire Gulf coast tomorrow???
Yes, the shortwave is simply reinforcing the surge of Siberian air into the region. Tomorrow is going to be a bitterly cold day in your area Bordonaro. You will be lucky to see 25 degrees for a max temp on tomorrow if you are lucky.
O.K., I'm off to bed. Back on here later this morning...
If there was more moisture this would be an over run event from Texas to the Carolinas. (The line of clouds forming behind the front)
Precip coverage area on the increase...
ya sum models do pick it up but drop it off soon right afterwards.. but its alot stronger and more moisture.. just my opinion.. lets see it will stay together tomorrow or later today.. ;)
and maybe heads toward the fl panhandle.. that would be nice ;)
Ouch...yeah, you got lucky! Where was that at?
Yep, that's when I ducked back outside for a little while longer...I saw the same "tiny snowflakes" in the floodlight I saw earlier...just not sure if they were in fact little snowflakes or tiny raindrops. They seemed to behave like little snowflakes though. We just need more moisture to come in!
I live in Bluewater Bay behind the winn dixie.. it was couple of days ago.. that was crazy and scary if a car was coming..
Be back around 9-11AM CST :0)!!
goodnight bob.. im heading out too.. hopefully we get unexpected gulf coast storm.. that would b awesome.. be safe everyone..
Hmm, interesting...I'm in the Woodlands. What caused the ice I wonder? Some douchebag who forgot to turn off their sprinkler system (which makes no sense this time of year anyway since the grass isn't growing)?
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIXTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EDZANI (08-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion January 8 2010
======================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Edzani (915 hPa) located at 15.6S 77.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone was reported as moving west-southwest at 6 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24 HRS
Hurricane Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center
Gale-Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center
Near Gale-force Winds
======================
160 NM from the center extending up to 200 NM in the southern semi circle
Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.0S 76.3E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 16.9S 74.7E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 18.8S 71.5E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 20.9S 69.3E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
Additional Information
=========================
Environmental conditions are still very favorable up to 36 hrs (particularly with a persisting equatorward upper outflow channel and a polar one building between 24-36 hours and sea surface temperatures are expected to keep on staying more than 27C sea surface temperatures until 48 hrs (west-southwest movement) and beyond sea surface temperature should lower more rapidly. EDZANI is expected therefore to stay steady or weaken slowly until 36-48 hrs, beyond its intensity should weaken more rapidly. The steering flow is a deep ridge in the southeast of the system. At the end of the range forecast, atrough south of the system should steer it more southern ECMWF ensemble prediction system gives 2 equiprobably scenario, one with recurve movement towards the trough, the other one without this forecast is a consensus of the available determinist Numerical Weather Prediction models which are in rather good agreement on the track and the speed of the system.
Updated: 4:54 AM CST on January 08, 2010
15 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: -1 °F
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 7 °F
Wind: 16 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 26 mph
Pressure: 30.26 in (Rising)
Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Overcast 2900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1181 ft
Did anybody get any snow? LOL.
Oh....they give mulligans in golf. Can I get one to start the New Year over? This first 7 days has been :(
A bit of a drizzle today, then temps plummeting again after sundown. No snow for NE Florida, but a little further south and west might see some other forms of precip than just rain.
Please let this be the last of our winter foolishness.
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 2 min 2 sec ago
Light Snow
29.2 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: 21 °F
Humidity: 56%
Dew Point: 17 °F
Wind: 8.0 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 16.8 mph
Pressure: 30.30 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Elevation: 20 ft
Viewing: 901 - 951
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