The Deep South shivered through another frigid morning today, with low temperature records crumbling again over much of Florida. Lakeland hit 27°F, smashing the old record of 34°F; Melbourne hit 28°F, eclipsing the old record of 32°F; and West Palm Beach bottomed out at 37°F, besting the old record of 38°F. The cold wave is being driven by an unusual sharp and persistent kink in the jet stream that is being blocked from moving by a strong ridge of high pressure over Greenland. As a result, an exceptionally strong surface high pressure of 1055 mb over the North Central U.S. is pushing large amounts of cold, Arctic air southwards from Canada. No coldest January temperature records have been set yet from the cold blast, but the 500 largest U.S. cities have been averaging about 11 new daily low temperature records per day the first five days of January, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold will ease Friday in the Deep South, but return with a vengeance Saturday night though Monday morning, as another push of cold air descending from Canada promises to bring a cold wave that will approach the December 1989 and January 1977 cold waves in intensity, and may being some new all-time January low temperature records to the South.
Colder in Florida than Alaska and Greenland
The sharp kink in the jet stream has brought record warm temperatures to a few stations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest this week, making much of coastal Alaska warmer than Florida. Cold Bay, Alaska, set a record high yesterday of 47°F, after recording a low temperature of 30°F. This made Cold Bay warmer than Pensacola, Florida, which had a high of 47°F and a low of 24°F. In fact, most of Florida--including Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, and Tallahassee--recorded lows at or below the 27°F low recorded in Anchorage, Alaska yesterday. The jet stream kink has also brought temperatures more than 30°F above average to Greenland. The temperature in Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 10am EST today was 46°F, far warmer than most of Florida.
Figure 1. Departure of the surface temperature from average for the first three day of 2010 shows much colder than average conditions were present over the Southeast U.S., much of Europe, and Central Asia. Much warmer than average temperatures were present over the Northwest U.S., Greenland, the Arctic, and Southern Asia. A sharp kink in the jet stream was responsible for the temperature anomaly pattern. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Snow in Florida?
It doesn't snow very often in Florida, and the Wikipedia list of snow events in Florida lists only seven such events over the decade of the 2000s. This weekend's cold wave may be able to generate some snow over isolated regions of Central Florida, though it appears that the odds of this happening are less than 30%. The most widespread snowfall in Florida history occurred on January 19, 1977, when snow fell over much of the state, with flurries as far south as Homestead. Snow flurries also fell on Miami Beach for the only time in recorded history.
Figure 2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for September 9, 2009 - January 6, 2010 (black line) and forecast from the GFS model (red lines). The NAO index was strongly negative, near -2.0, for much of December and January. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.
The winter cold blast: blame the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Why has the winter been so cold over Eastern North America and northern Europe? Well, don't blame El Niño. El Niño winters are rarely this cold. Instead, blame the the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.
The winter of 2009 - 2010 has seen a very strong negative NAO, causing much of our cold weather over Eastern North America and Europe. The NAO index for the month of December 2009 was -1.93, which is the third lowest NAO index since 1950 for a winter month (December, January, or February). The only winter months with a lower NAO index were February 1978 (-2.20) and January 1963 (-2.12). January 1963 was one of the coldest months on record in the UK and the Eastern U.S.. February 1978 was the coldest February on record for five U.S. states, and featured the historic blizzards in both the U.S. and UK. The NAO so far for January 2010 has continued to stay strongly negative, ranging between -1.5 and -2.1. However, the blocking ridge over Greenland is forecast to weaken next week, allowing the sharp kink in the jet stream to straighten out. This will increase the NAO index to more typical values, allowing a return of more ordinary winter weather to the U.S. and Europe.
Jeff Masters
from our porch view of sunrise this morning..totally different from the 'splendiferous' shots 1-8 taken from the top of our field overlooking the mountains
of winter in South Mississippi.
Like sand dunes or Antelope Canyon
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Mara I live in Oakland park also and the temp at the school safety dept (off powerline & 38th) is 41.8.. I don't think we're gonna see the 53 they were calling for.
Rare indeed.
at the moment this is what iam seeing
Edit: NVM
I agree, we just need to HOPE that big L that develops in the GOM does NOT tap any of that Arctic air!
I used to live about 120 miles S of Toronto, Canada, in Buffalo, NY. I have lived in the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area approaching 30 yrs. I can deal with the cold, it feels like "home"! The Southern Plains, the Deep South and Florida have truly had enough! It is amazing the citrus and strawberry crops have basically escaped serious damage.
My utility bill literally doubled. Many homes in the Southern US are not well insulated. I just hope and pray the CONUS gets at least a 2 week reprieve from the Arctic air!!
Grand Cayman current temp is 67 and very windy.
system appears to start dev at the 120 hr mark so appears there is to be dev what remains to be seen
What was your low? that is odd.. wow
Tweety is watching the deep L developing in the model forecast and he doesn't look happy!!
I don't ever remember a cold stretch that has gone on for this long. Not that I'm advocating for 90's, but about 10 degrees warmer would be nice!
It will still be bad imo but not as widespread i.e. a southeastern severe event.
So far SPC rightly is not sure how much of a severe threat it really is with so much dry, stable air in place and slow moderation expected. Lots of area under strong inversions right now...
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2010
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR THREAT AREA...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLIFICATION WITHIN A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. EMERGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE THEN PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF DOWNSTREAM SPLIT UPPER FLOW...ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD LINGERS CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY STRONG LEAD IMPULSE THAT COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSIONS IS MORE UNCLEAR...AND SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WITH SUBSTANTIVE MODIFICATION NOT LIKELY TO COMMENCE UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK...THIS POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW...OR LIKELY TO BE RATHER LOCALIZED AT BEST. BUT...SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
And note how the potential that is mentioned pinpoints 2 places. The timing of the location of the L with peak daytime heating is important to maximize CAPE and well overcome capping due to inversions aloft.
Given the timing of a yet-to-be-seen L 5 - 7 days out, I am surprised they mention 2 specific areas this far out...might be getting a little ahead of themselves.
Costanza/The Times-Picayune
Men representing Lafitte's pirates warm up by a fire Friday during events marking the 195th anniversary of the Battle of New Orleans in the War of 1812 at Chalmette Battlefield.
It was cold in the winter of 1815, when U.S. troops fended off the British in the Battle of New Orleans. So this weekend's weather only added to the accuracy of the re-enactment commemorating the battle on its 195th anniversary.
The SPC is run by very smart folks,whose pay grades are much higher than the avg Blogger.
Come Tuesday the nature and severity of the System plus track, will be pretty much nailed down..
Local NWS offices reflect the same,and as the event nears,they will advise and warn as per their respective counties and Parishes.
from the NWS New Orleans
Long term...medium range models continue to come into real good
agreement. Still some small timing issues but all of the models are
generally pointing towards a deep system moving through the lower MS
valley and northern Gulf around the end of the week. Confidence continues
to grow in a wet forecast for Friday/Sat time frame.
Thursday will likely be the last real quiet day for the region but both
moisture and temperatures will be on the increase. There will be a weak short wave
to push through early but with the lack of moisture this will be a
dry disturbance. Our main system will start to really take shape
during the day Thursday as energy from the Pacific coast digs through the
desert SW before closing off over old Mexico/Texas Big Bend region by
late Thursday night.
GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY
JMA; MTSAT; A massive thunderstorm grouping associated with a Kelvin wave over Indonesia is showing linkage to a storm complex over the northern Pacific Ocean. The impulse is also showing signs of supplying a new burst of energy to the subtropical jet stream lying across a belt from the equator into Central America.
I don't think that is the case, really, but is what they are really seeing right now. Given the fluidity of the timing, though, I personally would have included the middle TX coast through lower Atlantic states and N Florida over the 2 day period...
If the TV weatherman in, say, NOLA, reads that, he might decide not to mention it at all, which is up to him. Then his faithful followers are not aware of the possibility. They'll prolly eventually get the message, but could have been armed today with "The models are persistently hinting at a bout of rough weather for next weekend with some possibility of severe weather." Then he can say "stay tuned for further developments as we get nearer the passage of this low pressure system."
(I don't really know what goes on in the realm of TV meteorologists and their reading SPC outlooks. Just guesswork here... ;-) )
MTSAT series
Been a miserable week for me. Every day has had a low below freezing This is the coldest week of weather I have experienced since my Winter break trip to my Aunt and Uncles house in December 1998. I think we had three lows in the teens since last Monday. We have 3 more days of this until it gets really nice. But then we have this possible severe storm event late this week and into the next weekend.
I've have had chapped lips the whole week, and yes I have been using a chapstick...
Hope you have a nice warm middle and latter part of the week Adrian.
The former, current suite of models do not bring back the cold...
But I hope you like wet...
Hey zoomiami, thankfully our winds will begin to shift into a northeasterly fashion this week therefore commencing a steady moderation in temperatures. Next week could be stormy. adrian
How far do those models go out to? Two weeks?
My opinions only: This has been the best week of winter in decades.
*crystal clear, enjoying the stars, moon, daytime distances, sunrises
*invasive plants, and many natives will be far easier to control, come spring
*flea and mosquito populations will be depressed for months...that alone is wunderful
*have not sweated in quite a while
*unmentionable
*something to talk about
*a little extra appreciation for a hot shower
*kids will enjoy outdoor activities more than usual once temps more appropriate for it...absence makes the heart grow fonder
Additionally, I just like cold. If I could have the thermostat at 62 at night year round, I would.
GFS: 16 days.
Showing rain across the FL peninsula almost daily...
I like cool but anything under 40 is not something I enjoy to be in.
Though it was nice to see the sunset a few of those days.
Hopefully no flooding situations.
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