A new world record wind gust: 253 mph in Australia's Tropical Cyclone Olivia
The 6,288-foot peak of New Hampshire's Mount Washington is a forbidding landscape of wind-swept barren rock, home to some of planet Earth's fiercest winds. As a 5-year old boy, I remember being blown over by a terrific gust of wind on the summit, and rolling out of control towards a dangerous drop-off before a fortuitously-placed rock saved me. Perusing the Guinness Book of World Records as a kid, three iconic world weather records always held a particular mystique and fascination for me: the incredible 136°F (57.8°C) at El Azizia, Libya in 1922, the -128.5°F (-89.2°C) at the "Pole of Cold" in Vostok, Antarctica in 1983, and the amazing 231 mph wind gust (103.3 m/s) recorded in 1934 on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire. Well, the legendary winds of Mount Washington have to take second place now, next to the tropical waters of northwest Australia. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that the new world wind speed record at the surface is a 253 mph (113.2 m/s) wind gust measured on Barrow Island, Australia. The gust occurred on April 10, 1996, during passage of the eyewall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Olivia.
Figure 1. Instruments coated with rime ice on the summit of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire. Image credit: Mike Theiss.
Tropical Cyclone Olivia
Tropical Cyclone Olivia was a Category 4 storm on the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale, and generated sustained winds of 145 mph (1-minute average) as it crossed over Barrow Island off the northwest coast of Australia on April 10, 1996. Olivia had a central pressure of 927 mb and an eye 45 miles in diameter at the time, and generated waves 21 meters (69 feet) high offshore. According to Black et al. (1999), the eyewall likely had a tornado-scale mesovortex embedded in it that caused the extreme wind gust of 253 mph. The gust was measured at the standard measuring height of 10 meters above ground, on ground at an elevation of 64 meters (210 feet). A similar mesovortex was encountered by a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in Hurricane Hugo of 1989, and a mesovortex was also believed to be responsible for the 239 mph wind gust measured at 1400 meters by a dropsonde in Hurricane Isabel in 2003. For reference, 200 mph is the threshold for the strongest category of tornado, the EF-5, and any gusts of this strength are capable of causing catastrophic damage.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Olivia a few hours before it crossed Barrow Island, Australia, setting a new world-record wind gust of 253 mph. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Figure 3. Wind trace taken at Barrow Island, Australia during Tropical Cyclone Olivia. Image credit: Buchan, S.J., P.G. Black, and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.
Why did it take so long for the new record to be announced?
The instrument used to take the world record wind gust was funded by a private company, Chevron, and Chevron's data was not made available to forecasters at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) during the storm. After the storm, the tropical cyclone experts at BOM were made aware of the data, but it was viewed as suspect, since the gusts were so extreme and the data was taken with equipment of unknown accuracy. Hence, the observations were not included in the post-storm report. Steve Buchan from RPS MetOcean believed in the accuracy of the observations, and coauthored a paper on the record gust, presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston (Buchan et al., 1999). The data lay dormant until 2009, when Joe Courtney of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was made aware of it. Courtney wrote up a report, coauthored with Steve Buchan, and presented this to the WMO extremes committee for ratification. The report has not been made public yet, and is awaiting approval by Chevron. The verified data will be released next month at a World Meteorological Organization meeting in Turkey, when the new world wind record will become official.
New Hampshire residents are not happy
Residents of New Hampshire are understandably not too happy about losing their cherished claim to fame. The current home page of the Mount Washington Observatory reads, "For once, the big news on Mount Washington isn't our extreme weather. Sadly, it's about how our extreme weather--our world record wind speed, to be exact--was outdone by that of a warm, tropical island".
Comparison with other wind records
Top wind in an Atlantic hurricane: 239 mph (107 m/s) at an altitude of 1400 meters, measured by dropsonde in Hurricane Isabel (2003).
Top surface wind in an Atlantic hurricane: 211 mph (94.4 m/s), Hurricane Gustav, Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station in the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, on the afternoon of August 30, 2008.
Top wind in a tornado: 302 mph (135 m/s), measured via Doppler radar at an altitude of 100 meters (330 feet), in the Bridge Creek, Oklahoma tornado of May 3, 1999.
Top surface wind not associated with a tropical cyclone or tornado: 231 mph (103.3 m/s), April 12, 1934 on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire.
Top wind in a typhoon: 191 mph (85.4 m/s) on Taiwanese Island of Lanya, Super Typhoon Ryan, Sep 22, 1995; also on island of Miyakojima, Super Typhoon Cora, Sep 5, 1966.
Top surface wind not measured on a mountain or in a tropical cyclone: 207 mph (92.5 m/s) measured in Greenland at Thule Air Force Base on March 6, 1972.
Top wind measured in a U.S. hurricane: 186 mph (83.1 m/s) measured at Blue Hill Observatory, Massachusetts, during the 1938 New England Hurricane.
References
Buchan, S.J., P.G. Black, and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.
Black, P.G., Buchan, S.J., and R.L. Cohen, 1999, "The Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Mesovortex: A Physical Mechanism Explaining Extreme Peak Gust Occurrence in TC Olivia, 4 April 1996 on Barrow Island, Australia", paper presented at the 1999 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, 3-6 May, 1999.
Jeff Masters
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Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1123 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010
ARZ001-002-010-011-OKZ054>071-280130-
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.W.0001.100128T1200Z-100129T1800Z/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-
CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-
OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-
1123 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT...
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...
WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...PAWNEE...OTTAWA...
WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG...NOWATA...MCINTOSH AND MUSKOGEE. IN
ARKANSAS...WASHINGTON...MADISON...BENTON AND CARROLL.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME HEAVY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ENDING BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* DANGEROUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATION IS ALSO EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS.
IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. POWER OUTAGES
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST ICING. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POWER OUTAGES OF ONE TO FIVE DAYS...WITH
MORE RURAL AREAS POSSIBLY WITHOUT POWER FOR OVER A WEEK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* DELAY TRAVEL AND STAY HOME IF POSSIBLE UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.
anytime, looks like a lot of sleet, makes for fun driving
Fox News
Orlando Sentinel
OH, HOW COOL IS THIS?!!
Shout out to Colts/SAINT'S fans going to Miami to the Super Bowl...there's a 94th Aerosquadron Restaurant in Miami, and according to their website, they're helping in Haiti!
The food is/was great -- I've only been to the one that was in College Park...I see that according to Flood, the food was great in St. Louis, too...and reasonable for a "nice" dinner out!!
Once and again, thanks for link, T-dude...
94th Aerosquadron Restaurant, Miami
P.S. I will report any nasty WU-mail for recommending a restaurant that is helping in Haiti. I've had about enough of that. Any help is good help.
I'm posting mainly on my own blog, and friends. So lay off. I've made mistakes, but I'm just doing the best I can, trying to do the next right thing. Get the message? This place is starting to change me; for the worse, I'm afraid.
I already posted the Day of Atonement; and an entry from another family faith...I try to take the best from the rest. I've already asked forgiveness from those that rate...
wow, they want to discontinue the program and outsource to other governments (like Russia)
"According to a report in the Orlando Sentinel, the forthcoming budget -- which the president will announce in detail during Wednesday night's State of the Union address -- will include no funding for lunar landers, no moon bases, and no Constellation program at all. Instead, NASA will outsource space flight to other governments (such as the Russians) and private companies."
no problem! might have to make a trip over to Illinois to try it out sometime!
Link
Glad to see the hospital I was born in will be rebuilt. At least I'll still have a little physical connection to my birth city. Homes on Dauphine St. (9th Ward), Culotta(Chalmette) and Lancelot (east of the Canall off the Chef) are all gone. Thank God the Quarter and the Cafe du Mond didn't go, I sure likes me some cafe au lait and beignets!
Speaking of weather, I keep hearing of a major rain event here in NE FL...any details?
Not that, they wont send any jobs anywhere.
Thousands and thousands of jobs associated with NASA will be lost. Huntsville,
the Michoud Assembly Facility near New Orleans (Built the shuttle tanks), Johnson Space Center in Houston,
Kennedy Space Center, and countless other places.
Tropical Storm Olga is currently at tropical storm strength, but at the rate of strengthening it could easily strengthen into a category four by the time it reaches the southeastern end of the Gulf of Carpentaria:
However, there's a catch. While the core circulation of Olga remains over land near the southwestern part of the GoC, the main convection is actually situated over land, in the Northern Territory of Australia, not far from Darwin. That's right, the storm's convection actually strengthened over land, and currently it is heading northwest, towards open water.
The water SSTs just offshore where it will likely enter the oceans is a warm 30C, which gives the convection the ability to strengthen on its own rapidly, considering how quickly it flared up over land. This means that Olga will likely split into two.
Now, from the global SST map, you'll notice something else. Another tropical cyclone, TC Ten, has developed in the South Pacific, east of Fiji. Believe it or not, this is the "doom" cyclone that I had been fearing since the end of December, despite the fact that it will not track over many populated areas. I may be exaggerating, so there is no reason to panic. However, the storm has the Cook Islands and part of French Polynesia directly in its path, and the storm will likely be a strong category 1 or weak cat. 2 by the time it reaches that area. This storm is about 10 degrees wide in terms of lat/long diameter, and the storm surge it produces could easily overwhelm the shores of those small islands and atolls. In the SST map, the western part of the El Nino-Walker warm pool has a deep gash in its 30C+ zone. The cyclone is expected to reach the eastern end of that zone by the end of its 3-day forecast:
However, in about five days, the cyclone will be farther east than any South Pacific cyclone in record history, if it is able to make it past the 140W line, with shear up to 40-50 kts. Up to that point, if the storm survives as a tropical system, which it might due to its size, convection and predicted intensity, it will encounter waters at 28C. Cyclone Mick in mid-December did not make it past that point, and it was larger, but it failed not due to shear but due to steering winds, which pulled it toward Antarctica. However, it along with two other extratropical storm systems pulled water from the ENSO warm pool southward, forming the South Pacific warm anomaly bulge.
As can be seen on this SST anomalies map, the "bulge" warm anomaly now extends from 180W to 110W, and from 30S to 70S. TC Ten, or the remnants of it, will curve sharply southward around 120W due to steering winds around the western end of the high pressure system that drives the Humboldt Current, and at this point the cyclone will run out of 26C+ warm water. However, it will then enter the warm tongue poised toward Chile, at the zone of the ENSO warm pool-Humboldt cut-off zone, where the warmest anomalies are currently +3.5C. Of course, the clockwise rotation around the cyclone could pool warm water toward that southeastern warm tongue, strengthening it. Forecasts already predict that a warm tongue of water in that area will strengthen in about a week, shortly before the Cyclone could enter the area, but already it is strengthening. One day before the SST anomalies image was produced, the warmest part of that southeastern tongue was only about +3.0C from normal. After entering the warm zone, if the cyclone's remnants track south of the warmest anomalies, the anomalies will rapidly intensify. However, if the storm tracks farther north, the anomalies will be pushed back. This depends on the storm's interaction with the high pressure system. At 100W, the storm would be at the longitude of Pine Island Bay. If the storm or part of it tracks southward, more warm water will be pulled toward that weak underbelly of West Antarctica. If the storm makes landfall in Chile near 40S, then the southeastern tongue will completely cut off the Humboldt Current. SSTs at that location are currently near 16C, but if the aforementioned scenario takes place then the area could warm to 23C in a few days. This would cut off the Humboldt south of its strongest point, and disrupt global ocean currents entirely. After that, the storm would track southward, toward the low pressure systems in Antarctica, and bring warm anomalies to the Antarctic Peninsula and the Wilkins Ice Shelf. 8C water came close to the Antarctic Peninsula around two weeks ago, before retreating back. Warm anomalies up to +2C persist in the area of Wilkins that melted last year.
Above is a map of the South Pacific Gyre. Since late November, the northeastern part of teh Humboldt's cool zone, the isotherm at 20C has been retreating steadily southward. The current rebounded earlier in the month, preventing the ENSO-Humboldt cut-off from actually disrupting the Humboldt at its source. However, this scenario looks different, unless TC Ten completely dissipates due to shear and dry air. Even then, its circulation would fuel the South Pacific warm anomaly by drawing the remaining ENSO warm pool waters into it, speeding up melting in Antarctica.
This is not an ordinary El Nino. If it was, we would not expect the different oscillations and storms to produce a co-reinforcing yet erratic cycle. It may even no longer be accurate to say that global warming is occuring just every year, as this scenario could not happen under natural circumstances, but indeed it could now be progressing every day or even every hour.
http://www.googlelunarxprize.org/
International Team (3 of 5 Appolo Engeneers joined).
http://events.ccc.de/congress/2009/Fahrplan/events/3332.en.html
Purdue has a great history regarding the trips to the Moon and flight overall
744
fxus62 ktae 271855
afdtae
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
200 PM EST Wednesday Jan 27 2010
Long term (saturday through next wednesday)...the large scale
pattern is transitioning to a lower amplitude across the Continental U.S. As
the flow across the Pacific becomes more zonal. Significant energy
will remain in the southern stream...and several vigorous short
waves will progress eastward across Continental U.S. During the extended
period. Timing is always more of a problem in fast moving low
amplitude flow situations...and the European model (ecmwf) remains slower than the
GFS...and given the recent forecast trends will favor a blend that
is weighted towards the timing of the European model (ecmwf). The first system will
sweep across the area Friday night and Saturday...producing
widespread rain and thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold front.
While dynamics look strong with this system...model trends have been
slower with a more southern track of the surface low. The further
south the low tracks the more limited will be any northward
penetration of significantly unstable air...especially given
offshore water temperatures. Will indicate rain with some thunder.
Cannot rule out the possibility of isolated severe storms so will
have to monitor developments as we get closer in time to the event.
High pressure builds across the area Saturday afternoon and
Sunday...then shifts eastward on Monday...ahead of the next system
approaching from the west...bringing with it more rain for Tuesday.
High pressure then rebuilds across the area on Wednesday.
Temperatures will start our near climatology...fall below climatology Sunday and
Monday...then return to near climatology by the middle of the week. Also
cant rule out the possibility of temperatures dropping to near
freezing in normal colder areas on Sunday and Monday morning.
One of the mets down at NWS Ruskin explained to me that because doppler is looking 'up' into the storm, the gusts will be higher than those measured at ground level.
The 'ideal' is an anemometer mounted 10 m above the surface. You are right - many anemometers fail at high speeds.
Also, the anemometer has to survive the event and have its calibration verified. Many anemometers give high readings, but are later destroyed and can't be inspected later.
I read that the Mt. Washington unit was called a hot-wire anemometer. A pretty interesting instrument...
http://www.efunda.com/designstandards/sensors/hot_wires/hot_wires_intro.cfm
The information and the weather station was owned by a private company; it took quite a while to get the data from them and then they had to verify the equipment was and could have been accurate. As for the doppler readings, they are extrapolated wind speeds with a fair margin of error built into them. Even a cop's radar gun will give a really erroneous reading from time to time (I'm not really comparing a radar gun to a Doppler radar station, but the principle is similar). An anemometer is there, a mechanical device that measures the speed of the wind...I agree though, I want to know how that anemometer was anchored to be able to withstand winds of that speed...I've "stood up" in 80 mph winds; it's more like leaning into the wind at about a 45 degree angle
ok cool, thanks! :)
Correct.
Part 1 of 13 at youtube.
Is it supposed to be rainy all of next week? I looked at the Accuweather 15-day forecast (even though it's never accurate)and it has rain on Saturday and that's about it.
I'd like to suggest to collect those also, seperatly in a blog aswell.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FIVE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20092010
22:00 PM Réunion January 27 2010
=======================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10R (1003 hPa) located at 20.5S 59.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south-southeast at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: 2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.2S 60.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 24.2S 60.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 28.0S 61.3E - 35 knots (Devenant EXTRATROPICAL)
72 HRS: 32.8S 65.1E - 40 knots (EXTRATROPICAL)
Additional Information
========================
The low level circulation remains bad defined and the fix is extrapolated thanks to AMSU 1451z. Deep convection more scattered this afternoon, seem to develop strong wind (25kts very locally 30kts) exist mainly in the eastern semi circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Oceanic heat potential is favorable north of 24S and good upper level outflow channel exist poleward with an approaching upper levels trough but low level inflows are expected regularly weaken. System is therefore not forecasted to deepen significantly on and after 24 hrs, vertical wind shear is expected to increase and sea surface temperature to become unfavorable. Numerical weather prediction model are in good agreement with this scenario.
Réunion and Mauritius islands should stay far away from more intense convective activitiy east of the system which should concern Rodriques Island within the next 3 days.
There are about 45 states that have a stake in the space program. The screaming and yelling from the senators and delegates will be huge. I doubt that the budget will pass intact. We'll see.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #31
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER OLGA (07U)
5:00 AM CST January 28 2010
========================================
At 3:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Olga (992 hPa) located at 16.1S 136.2E or located 20 kms north of Borroloola and 210 kms south of Groote Eylandt has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore during today where it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, late today. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far east as Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island, tonight.
GALES are not expected between Burketown and Pormpuraaw within the next 24 hours. However, GALES may develop late on Friday or early Saturday.
HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause SERIOUS FLOODING at the Northern Territory coast and adjacent islands between Bing Bong and the Queensland Border tonight.
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES could cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast elsewhere between Cape Shield in the Northern Territory and Burketown in Queensland today.
People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island, in the Northern Territory should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 8 am CST [8:30am EST]
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield in the NT to Burketown in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from Burketown to Pormpuraaw in Queensland.
Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 15.6S 136.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 15.5S 137.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.9S 140.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.9S 143.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
Additional Information
=========================
Ex-TC Olga was located by synop and satellite close to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Surface observations from Borroloola suggest recent progression to the northwest closer to the coast. Deep convection has weakened during the night, with 24 hour trend steady based on decreased deep convection but increased curvature. DT 2.0 based on 0.3 spiral wrap. MET/PT agree. CI held up at 2.5 during recent weakening.
The system is forecast to move NW under the influence of the mid-level steering ridge to the southwest, then recurve towards the N or NE during Thursday as a middle level trough amplifies over central Australia. Forecast track based on consensus of available 12Z and 00Z model runs. The broad-scale environment is very favourable for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone when the LLCC moves further over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters, with divergent outflow aloft and strong monsoonal westerlies to the north.
What about that sudden convection to the northwest? It appears to be strengthening rapidly over land, heading toward Timor and toward open water.
OK a friend sent this to my cell phone had to share.
Be Advised:
Hurricane Who Dat is making landfall. Bringing Shockey waves and strong Brees. Already sunk a Viking ship. Headed straight for Miami!
Channeling your inner alien? Maybe, scientists say
By Raphael G. Satter, Associated Press Writer Tue Jan 26, 9:26 pm ET
Excerpt:
Davies' call for alien-hunting scientists to look to their own backyards came as a pioneer in the search for extraterrestrial life in outer space told the conference the job appears to be more difficult than previously thought.
ooooh..I like dat one.
Im gonna put it in my blog,if ya dont mind.
Quote and all.
doppler radar has a 70mph error window?
That's awesome Lol If anyone can withstand that hurricane tho, it'd be Peyton Manning
The main point here is that Doppler cannot give you readings of surface winds, not to mention the margin of error
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