Heavy snowfall in a warming world
A major new winter storm is headed east over the U.S. today, and threatens to dump a foot or more of snow on Philadelphia, New York City, and surrounding regions Tuesday and Wednesday. Philadelphia is still digging out from its second top-ten snowstorm of recorded history to hit the city this winter, and the streets are going to begin looking like canyons if this week's snowstorm adds a significant amount of snow to the incredible 28.5" that fell during "Snowmageddon" last Friday and Saturday. Philadelphia has had two snowstorms exceeding 23" this winter. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the return period for a 22+ inch snow storm is once every 100 years--and we've had two 100-year snow storms in Philadelphia this winter. It is true that if the winter pattern of jet stream location, sea surface temperatures, etc, are suitable for a 100-year storm to form, that will increase the chances for a second such storm to occur that same year, and thus the odds have having two 100-year storms the same year are not 1 in 10,000. Still, the two huge snowstorms this winter in the Mid-Atlantic are definitely a very rare event one should see only once every few hundred years, and is something that has not occurred since modern records began in 1870. The situation is similar for Baltimore and Washington D.C. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the expected return period in the Washington D.C./Baltimore region for snowstorms with more than 16 inches of snow is about once every 25 years. This one-two punch of two major Nor'easters in one winter with 16+ inches of snow is unprecedented in the historical record for the region, which goes back to the late 1800s.
Figure 1. Car buried in Virginia by "Snowmageddon" on February 8, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer Brabus Cave.
Top 9 snowstorms on record for Philadelphia:
1. 30.7", Jan 7-8, 1996
2. 28.5", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
3. 23.2", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
4. 21.3", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 21.0", Dec 25-26, 1909
6. 19.4", Apr 3-4, 1915
7. 18.9", Feb 12-14, 1899
8. 16.7", Jan 22-24, 1935
9. 15.1", Feb 28-Mar 1, 1941
The top 10 snowstorms on record for Baltimore:
1. 28.2", Feb 15-18, 2003
2. 26.5", Jan 27-29, 1922
3. 24.8", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
4. 22.8", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 22.5", Jan 7-8, 1996
6. 22.0", Mar 29-30, 1942
7. 21.4", Feb 11-14, 1899
8. 21.0", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 20.0", Feb 18-19, 1979
10. 16.0", Mar 15-18, 1892
The top 10 snowstorms on record for Washington, D.C.:
1. 28.0", Jan 27-28, 1922
2. 20.5", Feb 11-13, 1899
3. 18.7", Feb 18-19, 1979
4. 17.8" Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
5. 17.1", Jan 6-8, 1996
6. 16.7", Feb 15-18, 2003
7. 16.6", Feb 11-12, 1983
8. 16.4", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 14.4", Feb 15-16, 1958
10. 14.4", Feb 7, 1936
Heavy snow events--a contradiction to global warming theory?
Global warming skeptics regularly have a field day whenever a record snow storm pounds the U.S., claiming that such events are inconsistent with a globe that is warming. If the globe is warming, there should, on average, be fewer days when it snows, and thus fewer snow storms. However, it is possible that if climate change is simultaneously causing an increase in ratio of snowstorms with very heavy snow to storms with ordinary amounts of snow, we could actually see an increase in very heavy snowstorms in some portions of the world. There is evidence that this is happening for winter storms in the Northeast U.S.--the mighty Nor'easters like the "Snowmageddon" storm of February 5-6 and "Snowpocalypse" of December 19, 2009. Let's take a look at the evidence. There are two requirements for a record snow storm:
1) A near-record amount of moisture in the air (or a very slow moving storm).
2) Temperatures cold enough for snow.
It's not hard at all to get temperatures cold enough for snow in a world experiencing global warming. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the globe warmed 0.74°C (1.3°F) over the past 100 years. There will still be colder than average winters in a world that is experiencing warming, with plenty of opportunities for snow. The more difficult ingredient for producing a record snowstorm is the requirement of near-record levels of moisture. Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events--the ones most likely to cause flash flooding--will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. This extra moisture in the air will tend to produce heavier snowstorms, assuming it is cold enough to snow. Groisman et al. (2004) found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events in the U.S. over the past 100 years, though mainly in spring and summer. However, the authors did find a significant increase in winter heavy precipitation events have occurred in the Northeast U.S. This was echoed by Changnon et al. (2006), who found, "The temporal distribution of snowstorms exhibited wide fluctuations during 1901-2000, with downward 100-yr trends in the lower Midwest, South, and West Coast. Upward trends occurred in the upper Midwest, East, and Northeast, and the national trend for 1901-2000 was upward, corresponding to trends in strong cyclonic activity."
The strongest cold-season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent for the U.S.
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change." This program has put out some excellent peer-reviewed science on climate change that, in my view, is as authoritative as the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. In 2009, the USGCRP put out its excellent U.S. Climate Impacts Report, summarizing the observed and forecast impacts of climate change on the U.S. The report's main conclusion about cold season storms was " Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent".
The report's more detailed analysis: "Large-scale storm systems are the dominant weather phenomenon during the cold season in the United States. Although the analysis of these storms is complicated by a relatively short length of most observational records and by the highly variable nature of strong storms, some clear patterns have emerged (Kunkel et al., 2008).
Storm tracks have shifted northward over the last 50 years as evidenced by a decrease in the frequency of storms in mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while high-latitude activity has increased. There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes (Kunkel et al., 2008). The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights". The study also noted that we should expect an increase in lake-effect snowstorms over the next few decades. Lake-effect snow is produced by the strong flow of cold air across large areas of relatively warmer ice-free water. The report says, "As the climate has warmed, ice coverage on the Great Lakes has fallen. The maximum seasonal coverage of Great Lakes ice decreased at a rate of 8.4 percent per decade from 1973 through 2008, amounting to a roughly 30 percent decrease in ice coverage. This has created conditions conducive to greater evaporation of moisture and thus heavier snowstorms. Among recent extreme lake-effect snow events was a February 2007 10-day storm total of over 10 feet of snow in western New York state. Climate models suggest that lake-effect snowfalls are likely to increase over the next few decades. In the longer term, lake-effect snows are likely to decrease as temperatures continue to rise, with the precipitation then falling as rain".
Figure 2. The annual average number of snowstorms with a 6 inch (15.2 cm) or greater accumulation, from the years 1901 - 2001. A value of 0.1 means an average of one 6+ inch snowstorm every ten years. Image credit: Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States, J. Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 8, pp. 1141-1155, DOI: 10.1175/JAM2395.1.
More heavy snowstorms occur in warmer-than-average years
Another interesting result from the Changnon et al. (2006) paper (Figure 2) is the relationship between heavy snowstorms and the average winter temperature. For the contiguous U.S. between 1900 - 2001, the authors found that 61% - 80% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters with above normal temperatures. In other words, the old adage, "it's too cold to snow", has some truth to it. The authors also found that 61% - 85% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters that were wetter than average. The authors conclude, "a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000. The authors found that over the U.S. as a whole, there had been a slight but significant increase in heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches between 1901 - 2000. However, a separate paper by Houston and Changnon (2009), "Characteristics of the top ten snowstorms at First-Order Stations in the U.S.", found that there was no upward or downward trend in the very heaviest snowstorms for the contiguous U.S. between 1948 - 2001, as evaluated by looking at the top ten snowstorms for 121 major cities.
Commentary
One can "load the dice" in favor of events that used to be rare--or unheard of--if the climate is changing to a new state. It is quite possible that nature's weather dice have been loaded in favor of more intense Nor'easters for the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, thanks to the higher levels of moisture present in the air due to warmer global temperatures. It's worth mentioning that heavy snow storms should be getting increasingly rare for the extreme southern portion of the U.S. in coming decades. There's almost always high amounts of moisture available for a potential heavy snow in the South--just not enough cold air. With freezing temperatures expected to decrease and the jet stream and associated storm track expected to move northward, the extreme southern portion of the U.S. should see a reduction in both heavy and ordinary snow storms in the coming decades.
The CapitalClimate blog has a nice perspective on "Snowmageddon", and Joe Romm of climateprogress.org has some interesting things to say about snowstorms in a warming climate.
References
Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, , "Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States", J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 1141.1155.
Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.
Kunkel, K.E., P.D. Bromirski, H.E. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A.V. Douglas, D.R. Easterling, K.A. Emanuel, P.Ya. Groisman, G.J. Holland, T.R. Knutson, J.P. Kossin, P.D. Komar, D.H. Levinson, and R.L. Smith, 2008: Observed changes in weather and climate extremes. In: Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate: Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands [Karl, T.R., G.A. Meehl, C.D. Miller, S.J. Hassol, A.M. Waple, and W.L. Murray (eds.)]. Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, DC, pp. 35-80.
Congratulations, New Orleans!
Congratulations to everyone in New Orleans, for the Saints' Super Bowl victory! It's great to the see the city celebrating after enduring so many years of hardship in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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In the South East next couple weeks. I'm ready for the warm up personally. Had my fill of cold weather, bring on the heat.
GGEM:
ECMWF:
Thanks for posting those charts. I hope those models are correct.
Thanks! Think I got it this time.
The same percent you gave it.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
257 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY.
* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES INTO THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
BY LATE TONIGHT.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS FOND DU
LAC COUNTY...AND 10 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THIS AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.
* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY EARLY
TONIGHT...GUSTING TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND A RELATIVELY DRY POWDERY
SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BLUSTERY
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
THE BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE IN OPEN
AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
You mean CUBA? Holy smokes..
I remember the Storm of the Century back in 1993 gave them a good pounding...
Defuniak Springs:
Thursday Night
Cloudy. Chance of rain or a slight chance of snow after midnight. Lows around 33. North winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Friday
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain or snow. Highs around 45.
Same storm that caused the great midwest floods??
Or am I totally confused, as usual?
Good...they added it back to our forecast!
They had it in the forecast real early this morning...then dropped it later in the morning. Now they've added it back again.
Nah, the big blizzard on March 11 - 15
A good start to global progress on climate safety
Dr. Andrew Light, in this CAP repost, explains how the commitments already made by the world’s nations leave us only 5 gigatons short of the 2020 target scientists agree is necessary to minimize climate change damages.
This past December, 192 countries gathered for the 15th meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen, Denmark. Ambitions for the Copenhagen meeting were high. UNFCCC members had agreed at their 13th meeting in Bali, Indonesia in 2007 that December 2009 would be the deadline to determine a course of action forward on a plan for global reduction of carbon dioxide emissions following the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012.
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/09/progress-from-the-copenhagen-accord/
oh my god that made me laugh out loud!
According to Project Catalyst, emission reductions on the low end have improved largely due to countries such as Brazil and Indonesia strengthening their own direct commitments for reductions, rather than, for example, only providing a less expensive offset market through deforestation projects for developed countries. These figures also still include the pre-Copenhagen commitments from major emitting countries in the developing world such as China and India to reduce their emissions by 13 percent and 19 percent respectively below a “business-as-usual” growth in emissions (Figure 2).
There is also reason for optimism because it is very likely that the United States can deliver the necessary reductions even if Congress fails to deliver on comprehensive climate and energy legislation this year. The low-case scenario in this analysis is primarily a function of whether the United States can achieve its goal of achieving a 17 percent cut below 2005 emission levels by 2020. This figure represents reductions from the economy-wide cap-and-trade mechanism in the Waxman-Markey legislation passed by the House of Representatives last summer. If the United States cannot meet this goal, as is modeled on the low-end scenario here, then other countries will likely only achieve the low end of their ambitions as well. But what these figures do not take into account is that if this happens the administration will still be required to begin the process of reducing carbon emissions under the auspices of the Clean Air Act, thus increasing the likelihood that we will reach the high-end scenario. Estimates now show that individual states alone will already deliver 7 percent of reductions commensurate with this 17 percent goal from their policies alone, leaving only 10 percent needed from executive action at the federal level.
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/09/progress-from-the-copenhagen-accord/
Looks like the 18Z NAM has trended higher with non-liquid precip. here.
It sure was quite a year, then! Sry, duh me, I was "cloistered" in a basement of a building in DC for a lot of that time... broadcasting in languages I don't speak.
"THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND APPROACH
THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS HAS WARMED SOMEWHAT ON
THURSDAY...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLING TAKE PLACE DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN TOO MUCH TO GET TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE MID 30S AT THE SURFACE. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS
ESSENTIALLY ISOTHERMAL NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FROM 900 MB ON UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A
RELATIVELY DEEP (2000 FT) LAYER FROM 900 MB TO THE SURFACE WHERE THE
PROFILE IS ABOVE FREEZING...THERE IS QUITE A LARGE DRY LAYER BETWEEN
950-800 MB WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF
THE COLUMN...ESPECIALLY IF ANY FALLING PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
ESPECIALLY HEAVY. THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE PROFILE IN THE GFS AND
NAM ALL WOULD SUPPORT A FROZEN HYDROMETEOR FALLING TO THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...THE PREFERRED FROZEN HYDROMETEOR
TYPE WOULD BE SNOW. BUT...GIVEN THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH
RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE DEPTH OF THE
MELTING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...WILL PREFER A FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. ALSO BASED ON THIS PROFILE ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL CONFINE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX AREA IN SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TOO WARM NEAR THE COAST IN THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD TO TALLAHASSEE AND CROSS CITY FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP
THURSDAY NIGHT."
Yea. Just took a look at the KFVX NAM meteogram which is showing a favorable thermodynamic profile for non-liquid precip. I am still placing the rain/snow line around the I-10 corridor. I am seeing a 850mb-700mb thickness around 1520gpm which is a subfreezing layer.
Thanks. I'm done. Twice in one day puts me WAY over quota for the week. But junk science REALLY ticks me off, no matter which side of the argument it's on. So I feel compelled to calls 'em when I sees 'em. Probably ought to go get some meds for that...
Hehe... hi Drak... been a while. Guess you beat me to that.
Yes I did lol!
The only thing I would be worried about now is the 1000mb-850mb thickness which is around 1300gpm. I would look for 1290gpm for a freezing layer.
Overcast
Wind: 26 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 34 mph
Sympathies to NM; favorite place of mine. CYL, I hope.
Issued by The National Weather Service
Mobile, AL
3:40 pm CST, Tue., Feb. 9, 2010
... WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION BY WEEK'S END AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84... AND WILL THEN CHANGE TO AND REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING FROM THE WEST. CLOSER TO THE COAST... RAIN WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT AND A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS MID MORNING FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.
IT IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE STATE OF THE SCIENCE TO PIN-POINT EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS BECAUSE IT IS TOO FAR OUT IN TIME PRIOR TO THE EVENT AND MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. HOWEVER... CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA CONTINUES TO INCREASE... PARTICULARLY INLAND.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY EITHER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WARNING BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
EVERYONE IS URGED TO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND OUTLOOKS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY... SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS THAT LINGERING MOISTURE ON ROADS AND OVERPASSES WILL REFREEZE... CREATING SLICK SPOTS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
Wow yeah! its def. windy here!
Frozen hydrometeor: snow, sleet, etc
Statement as of 3:40 PM CST on February 09, 2010
... Winter storm may affect the central Gulf Coast region Thursday
night and Friday...
Snowfall accumulation is expected across our region by week's end as
a surface low pressure system develops and moves eastward across the
northern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night and Friday. Precipitation
will likely begin as a mix of light rain and sleet over the interior
counties Thursday night... especially along and north of Highway
84... and will then change to and remain as snow through Friday
afternoon before ending from the west. Closer to the coast... rain
will begin falling Thursday night and a changeover to sleet and snow
mix could occur as early as mid morning Friday before changing to
all snow before ending.
It is currently beyond the state of the science to Pin-Point exact
snowfall totals because it is too far out in time prior to the event
and many uncertainties remain. However... current trends indicate
several inches of snow could fall over interior southwestern and
south central Alabama from Thursday night through midday Friday with
lighter amounts closer to the coast. The confidence for
accumulating snow in our area continues to increase... particularly
inland.
If this trend continues... a Winter Storm Watch will likely be issued
by tomorrow afternoon followed by either a Winter Weather Advisory
or a possible Winter Storm Warning by sunrise Thursday.
Everyone is urged to stay up to date on the latest forecast and
outlooks concerning this potential snow event. Although
precipitation will be ending later in the day Friday... subfreezing
low temperatures Friday night suggests that lingering moisture on
roads and overpasses will refreeze... creating slick spots and
hazardous driving conditions.
We have a special weather statement over here that includes some accumulations:
.Wintry precipitation possible across southeast Louisiana and
southern Mississippi Thursday night and Friday...
The potential for frozen precipitation looks to be increasing through
the latter part of this week. A surface low is expected to develop
in the western Gulf of Mexico just east of south Texas Thursday.
Moisture will be on the increase across the area late Thursday
morning and into the afternoon hours. As the moisture overrides a
cool air mass in place...a mix of frozen precipitation will begin to
fall across southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana mainly
north of Interstate 12. A few areas as far south as Donaldsonville
and LaPlace may see sleet mixed with rain through Thursday
afternoon. As Thursday night rolls around...the surface low is
expected to track across the northern Gulf near the Louisiana coast.
During this time...a change over to all snow should be occurring over
southern Mississippi. Accumulations of 2 to 4 inches will be
possible overnight. The snow may be heavy at times which could
result in isolated amounts higher than 4 inches. Points south of
this...such as the Baton Rouge metropolitan area and locations east
along the Interstate 12 corridor will be in mix of rain and snow.
Accumulations will be less in these areas but could approach 1 to 3
inches. By Friday morning...the surface low should be tracking east
of the area and snow will start coming to an end in the afternoon
hours. Before the precipitation stops...an additional 1 to 2 inches
of snow may fall in southern Mississippi and up to 1 inch in the
Florida parishes as well as coastal Mississippi.
atmo: (The Florida Parishes are those that were once part of the Republic of West Florida...north of Lake Pontchartrain and East of the Mississippi River)
I'm with you; been pretty snarky in here the last few days or so. It's gotten so you can't have an opinion without being attacked from one quarter or another
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