Heavy snow, rain, and flooding for the Northeast U.S.
The winter of 2009-2010 continues its relentless onslaught over the U.S. today, as a powerful low pressure system intensifying along the East Coast brings heavy snow, flooding rains, and high winds to New England and the Mid-Atlantic. The storm has already dropped more than two feet of snow over Eastern New York near Albany, and surrounding regions of Western Massachusetts and Southern Vermont. These regions are now seeing rain mixed in with the snow, which will limit further accumulations to 1 - 3 inches. Farther east, flooding is a concern for most of Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, southern New Hampshire, and portions of western Maine, where heavy rainfall of 1 - 3 inches on top of a snow pack with a high water content has created runoff that has already swollen many rivers to flood stage. Heavy snow is the main concern over southeast New York, northern New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania. The unusually slow-moving storm is expected to drop snow amounts of up to 18" in the Pocono Mountains of northeast Pennsylvania, and in northern New Jersey. New York City, whose 30.5" of snow so far this winter is 13" above average for this date, could get up to a foot of wet, heavy snow. Philadelphia's 73" of snow for the season will get an 8 - 12" boost from the storm, taking their record snowiest winter even further into record territory. Wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph in combination with the very wet, heavy snow will make power outages a problem over much of the region.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image at 9:30am EST Thursday, February 25, 2010 showing today's Northeast U.S. snowstorm. Image credit: NASA GSFC GOES project.
Some selected storm-total snowfall amounts, from Tuesday morning through 10am EST today, courtesy of the National Weather Service:
...CONNECTICUT...
BURLINGTON 10.0
NEW HARTFORD 3.8 W 9.0
...KENTUCKY...
OVEN FORK 1 NE 5.0
BLEDSOE 2 SE 4.0
...MASSACHUSETTS...
SAVOY 28.5
ROWE 25.0
CHESTERFIELD 24.0
ASHFIELD 23.6
HEATH 22.0
SHELBURNE 22.0
PLAINFIELD 21.5
PITTSFIELD 20.0
BECKET 19.8
CHESTER 19.5
BLANDFORD 19.0
ASHBURNHAM 16.8
LANESBOROUGH 16.0
NORTH OTIS 16.0
NEW ASHFORD 13.0
WORCESTER 10.7
...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
EAST LEMPSTER 20.0
WASHINGTON 18.5
PETERBOROUGH 18.0
RANDOLF 17.6
GREENFIELD 16.0
NEWPORT 15.3
WILTON 14.0
BENNINGTON 13.0
WAPOLE 12.9
WEST CHESTERFIELD 10.8
LEMPSTER 10.0
...NEW YORK...
ALTAMONT 26.5
WESTERLO 26.0
WILLARD MTN BASE 25.0
NORTH HEBRON 24.0
MEDUSA 23.0
MORIAH 22.5
TABORTON 22.0
DURHAM 20.0
PORTER CORNERS 20.0
ROXBURY 18.9
PHOENICIA 18.5
CHATHAM CENTER 18.0
SCHENECTADY 15.0
ALBANY 12.4
BINGHAMTON 10.5
...OHIO...
CARROLOTON 5.5
...PENNSYLVANIA...
PONOCO PEAK LAKE 13.0
HAWLEY 3.8 NE 11.0
WANTAGE 11.0
PLEASANT MOUNT 10.0
DINGMANS FERRY 3.9 WSW 9.2
MILANVILLE 1.5 SE 8.9
SAYLORSBURG 8.5
BEEMERVILLE 8.0
EAST STROUDSBURG 8.0
THOMPSON 8.0
...RHODE ISLAND...
BURRILLVILLE 6.5
WEST GLOCESTER 5.1
WOONSOCKET 0.3 W 3.4
...TENNESSEE...
APPALACHIA 3.0
ROAN MOUNTAIN 3.0
Update on this Saturday's major winter storm in Europe
Computer forecast models continue to forecast the development of a powerful winter storm that will rapidly intensify Saturday morning into a meteorological "bomb" that will bring high winds and flooding rains to Portugal, northern Spain, and possibly France. However, today's model runs are less aggressive in deepening the storm, and no longer call for the storm to be as intense as last year's Winter Storm Klaus. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Klaus peaked in intensity at 967 mb, and brought wind gusts of 120 mph (193 km/hr) to Formiguères, France, 125 mph (200 km/hr) to Portbou, Spain, and 134 mph (216 km/hr) to Port d'Envalira, Andorra. Last night's 00Z (7pm EST) run of the ECMWF model and GFS model called for Saturday's storm to have 974 - 976 mb central pressure. Saturday's storm still has the potential to be plenty damaging, as winds of tropical storm force with gusts to hurricane force should affect a large swath of Portugal and northern Spain.
Figure 2. Forecast from the 1am EST 2/25/10 run of the GFS model for 18 GMT Saturday for surface winds. The GFS is predicting that Saturday's storm will peak in intensity at this time with a pressure of 974 mb. Sustained winds just below hurricane force of 60 - 75 mph (green colors) are expected offshore from Portugal. Image was generated using our wundermap for Spain with the "model" layer turned on.
Next post
My next post will be Friday.
Jeff Masters
this frozen drop was suspended on the thinnest filament of ice over our frozen brook..so very delicate and beautiful
Reader Comments
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alright, working on it, might be a little while
Nice. Hadn't been there in quite a while.
18 Z likes our chances a bit more:
And, wow, cooled at the surface substantially over the 12 Z:
Penguins (C) drift on an ice floe beneath a cathedral iceberg in the Southern Ocean in the Australian Antarctic Territory in 2006. An iceberg the size of Luxembourg knocked loose from the Antarctic continent earlier this month could disrupt the ocean currents driving weather patterns around the globe, researchers said Thursday.
An iceberg the size of Luxembourg knocked loose from the Antarctic continent earlier this month could disrupt the ocean currents driving weather patterns around the globe, researchers said Thursday.
While the impact would not be felt for decades or longer, a slowdown in the production of colder, dense water could result in less temperate winters in the north Atlantic, they said.
The 2550 square-kilometre (985 square-mile) block broke off on February 12 or 13 from the Mertz Glacier Tongue, a 160-kilometer spit of floating ice protruding into the Southern Ocean from East Antarctica due south of Melbourne, researchers said.
Some 400 metres (1300 feet) thick, the iceberg could fill Sydney Harbour more than 100 times over.
http://www.physorg.com/news186339017.html
FEBRUARY is on track to become Singapore's driest month, as well as one of the hottest on record.
Peninsular Malaysia is experiencing water shortages, from the Kedah rice fields in the north to parts of Johor in the south, where taps ran dry over the Chinese New Year.
China is reporting severe drought and a shortage of drinking water, affecting millions in the south-western part of the country.
And in the Philippines, the largest corn-producing region is withering under a blazing sun.
Weather experts say the region is once again grappling with the severe effects of the El Nino phenomenon, which sparked forest fires and the haze more than 10 years ago.
This time, the parched conditions are causing grief to farmers and raising concerns about water shortages.
http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Asia/Story/STIStory_495192.html
fxus64 klix 252141
afdlix
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
341 PM CST Thursday Feb 25 2010
Short term...
A vigorous short wave trough will descend from the plains states
into the Gulf south starting tomorrow into Saturday. This clipper
like system will bring increasing cloud cover the area tonight.
A decent cold pool will also remain in place across the region
tonight as a deep long wave trough dominates the eastern third
nation. As the short wave dives into Texas a region of enhanced
lift on the Lee side of the upper level trough along with a strong
thermal gradient across Texas will allow for a development of
surface low late tonight into early tomorrow. This low will track
to the southeast throughout tomorrow...allowing for southeast
winds and an onshore flow to set up across the County Warning Area. Strong low
level moisture advection will take place tonight into tomorrow
morning...with showers developing by the afternoon across the
forecast area. These showers will be driven by a region of
enhanced positive vorticity advection and lift across the Gulf south.
Heading into tomorrow night...the short wave trough will swing
through the Gulf south...with the surface low tracking across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Initially...rain is expected across the
forecast area...but a change over to a wintry mix of
rain...sleet...and snow is expected after midnight over the
northern half of the County Warning Area. After reviewing model soundings a deep
cold pool associated with the main upper level system will track
across the region. This will drop the temperatures aloft into a
favorable range for snow formation. In addition...the low levels
will see some cold air advection take hold on the back side of the
low. This colder airmass will allow for a quick change over to
snow and sleet over southwest Mississippi and far northern
sections of the Florida parishes. Along the I-12 corridor...a mix
of rain and snow is expected. For areas south of
I-12...temperatures will be far too warm for any wintry
precipitation. Fortunately...all of the precipitation will be
light...with little if any accumulation expected over northern
zones. The mix should come to an end by noon...as strong negative
vorticity advection and subsidence takes hold. Deep layer
ridging will dominate the area on Sunday...with clear skies and
cooler than normal temperatures expected.
Long term...
The deep layer ridging will quickly slide to the east Sunday
night...as another strong upper level low moves into the Southern
Plains.
Strong ascent on the southeast side of the system in a
region of enhanced difluence...combined with a sharp thermal
gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico will allow for a very
strong Gulf low to form in the western Gulf Sunday night. At the
same time...a pool of cold air will remain across the forecast
area. Increasing cloud cover is expected Sunday night as the
strong upper level low approaches from the west and southwest flow
in the middle-levels rides up and over a more stable and colder
airmass at the surface. With strong isentropic forcing in the middle-
levels and high Omega values aloft...expect rain to overspread the
entire forecast area on Monday. This broad precipitation field will
continue into Monday night as the low tracks through the northern
Gulf of Mexico and begins to deepen rapidly over the northeast
Gulf and the southeastern Atlantic Seaboard. As the low
deepens...colder air will be drawn south into the region late
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Additionally...the main
cold pool associated with the upper level low will be passing
through. It appears that a change over to wintry precipitation could take
place Monday night into Tuesday. It is far too early to determine
the exact timing and type of precipitation along with any accumulation
amounts. This next system will have to be monitored carefully
through the weekend.
Strong subsidence and dry air advection will take hold of the County Warning Area
Tuesday night with rapidly clearing skies and cold temperatures
expected. Colder than normal readings and dry conditions will
through the end of the week as upper level ridging remains over
the area.
&&
The GFS 18z sounding looks a lot better for you. Looks like it's gonna be a close call between rain/snow mix and pure snow. The dewpoint depression in the 950mb layer would probably lead to evaporative cooling to the wet bulb temperature. Nice saturation in the dendritic growth zone near 550mb too.
Yay. I think I can say that the kid's soccer game at 8:45 Sat. morn is prolly a no-go. (I really do enjoy watching him play, dang, that time is exactly why I didn't do that when I was a kid...WhyTH can't all kid's sport be played sometime after 10am?)
Middendorf's on a Friday evening is fried Catfish Heaven as well.
Two weeks ago tomorrow morning,McComb,Miss.
Just don't knock over the furniture with all this running around boys, play nice!!
haha are you back in Florida?
None better.
I really don't have any extra room to put ya up overnight, but you would be welcome to come visit in Covington...
(especially if you bring some Middendorf's...j/k)
A portion of the NWS Miami, FL Area Forecast Discussion for MO-TU next week:
MONDAY AND TUES... YET ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT FL AS IS
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE GULF AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. MODELS ARE
SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW, HOWEVER MOST
KEEP THE TRACK FROM AROUND TAMPA TO THE BIG BEND WITH S FL IN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH EARLY TUE MORN.
today the temp reached 97F at the Airport. Yesterday was 96.8.
This is Record High temps for Trinidad (11n 61w). Keep in mind that this is a small Island, with sea all around.
The sea is supposed to regulate the temps of these islands, and this temp (especially for Feb) is quite incredible.
Strong breeze, dry, hazy conditions.
The vegetation all over the island is suffering, and rivers and streams are drying up. Fires are burning in the forests.
I certainly hope that this is not how it is going to be.............
Wow! A back-door warm front just like the one produced by the Jan. 3 storm that unexpectedly dumped 25 cm of snow at my location! That one was stronger and had multiple centers but this one is closer and slower-moving so we will see.
A back door warm front is a sign of a VERY INTENSE area of L pressure.
The "snowicane" is winding up for her "pirouette" around the NY, NJ, CT (Tri-State Area). HPC/NCEP has the L at 972MB, the 18Z GFS Run has her at 978MB within 6-12hrs!!
In RI:
10.0 FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG PIONEER AVENUE...BELLOWS STREET AND VENTURI AVENUE IN WARWICK. SOME HOMES ARE IMPACTED ON AVERY RD AND WELLINGTON AVE IN CRANSTON.
Dang, hope no one has to deal with water-in-house
Or more!! I know right know you must "feel like you're in Heaven"!!
New York City, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI
Yep i do. Finally we get some action up here.
About 250 MI S of Cape Cod, MA.
somewhat, still has the low pretty far out to sea
Link
Latest Satellite Imagery
Please Note: These images do not originate from the NHC website. The loop animations have been updated recently and require Java or Flash.
Hmm @ WV imagery. How will the storm interact with the dry air and lake-effect precipitation on its western side?
Web Page
The GOES-11 satellite captured in infrared image of 17P's clouds and the storm appears to be getting re-organized.
02.25.10
Tropical cyclone 17P may be a low pressure area right now, but environmental conditions have become more favorable to give it a likely comeback as a tropical storm.
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