Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The system needs to take into account the kinetic energy built up at sea, if she drops in pressure then rises, the surge may not drop. That depends on the time she was at that intensity, Katrina burst all the records except wind and pressure. Andrew only busted.... what i don't know, oh, she hit close to a major city with media coverage.

no valence. there a techiniqu using a fuilter on the sat to give u the dvorak intensity. here look here the loop of a storm using dvorak. its like ir but different.

Link

Well Andrew did bust the bank for insurance companies...

tom we are holdong a disscussion. u move on

i don;t have any doppler that shows more than 64 kts. and have not heard of any doppler of her. but i though that. i think thats why they kept her at 120 as she made landfall and the pressure shot up. which to me seems like she was stronger

tomf-

Im not sure what precipiated this whole conversation, other than some good-ol-fashioned NHC bashing, but I can think of a reason why this may be important:

NEWS FLASH - The US will, sometime in the future, be hit with another hurricane (hopefully not this year). It would seem to me that part of the reason these storms are studied so much is not just for sceintific curiosity, but to be able to judge how much destructive power resides in these cycles.

I want to know what exactly the effects are of a 115 mph storm. This way, when one is coming, I know how to prepare for it.

Remember when Katrina rolled past S FL? The residents there were shocked by its intensity, even though it was only a cat 1. And its not like they haven't been through storms recently (Frances, Jeanne). And when Dennis went throught he panhandle the residents there were shocked at how weak the storm felt, even that I belive it was still cat 3 (or strong 2).

JV

lefty-

2 comments on your recon reports (though I do still see your point)

1. The pressure on the earlier one was extrapolated (Was that when the drop missed the actual eye?) Perhaps that pressure was incorrect, and the 930 may have been a greater increase than 16mb.

2. While the diff in temp was still 8deg, the temp had cooled off, which may have indicated that the flight level winds were not making it down to the surface as fast.

JV

Make no mistake about it, I,m not bashing the NHC, I just think they should update thier scale. The surge and wind damage are not meeting what the public expects. I know, we know, that it differs, but the general public does not know the potential.

valence the 899mb one was the one the dropsonde failed. i am not sure why that was extrapulated but the next recon had her at 913. my point was the flight level winds. not until she rose to 930 from 929 did they start to use 20 percent rather than 10. if the tenmp was there meaning than maybe. my point is the flight level winds were the same. so i feel 130 would have been a suffice intensity . but thats my take

Speaking of Andrew . . .

I've heard many of you argue that Andrew was not a true cat 5, and while i haven't completely turned around, I understand the point of view.

But Im starting to wonder about Camille and the Labor Day hurricanes. Are we sure that they were true cat 5s as well?

Does anyone have any links to sites describing those hurricanes in detial? Specifically the sceintific measurements while they were at sea, approaching land, and making landfall? The help would be appreciated.

JV

oh yeah i am not bashing them either. more than naything i am trying to learn more. as u see i know plenty but u can learn from every storm. thats why i save the recons, thats why i plot every recvon out . i try to see what the nhc see based onmy tools. but yeah i think the nhc are the experts but when it comes to wind speeds its subjectuve and thats why we are disscussing it

valence. give me a second the nhc archive site is not working. i was going to try to find you the anylisis for those storms. will try again in a minute

easy answer. what whas the min pre. of andrew and the max sus wind speed?

Agreed Valence, I would like to know the "science" behind the NHC data that they release to the public. I am in an exposed location, but I won;t go through the hassle of evacuating for a CAT 1. For Cat 3 and above, however, I am outta here, so I want to be assured the data being released to the public is reliable, and not garbled by bureaucratic or political considerations. So Lefty's questions are legitimate: for both Katrina and Rita, the wind/pressure relationship does not match up historically with other storms. I've "considered" the possbility that the surrounding pressure environment was low, but such a statement was never made in any of the NHC discussions, and I have not checked to see if that was correct. So if there is another answer I sure would like to know, for future reference.

Enough of this talk...I just need to work for the NHC. Its only a 2 hour drive from my house anyway!

What would of happened if a million ppl didnt move?
Good Gamble? It will be cry wolf next time? Leffty think about it? Put the slide rule down. Dr. Masters will tell you this? they are all different. Every storm.
You learn. This not a football game. Were you work on the odds What team will be the winning team next week.
Its Mother Nature.

the worse part guygee is we ahve to wait till dec or later to get a good anylisis of the storm.


tom, this is a blog and we are having a very interesting discussion. we are all learning something here. what is ur problem, really? maube u don't understand what we are saying lol

lefty-

I was already there, can't get the server either. Thats why I was asking if anyone else had any links. I dont think the NHC archive goes back to 35 anyway.

I guess I'll just google the bastards.

JV

andrew was 922mb and the eatimated wind speed was 125kts or 145mph. now they upgraded him to a cat 5 so thats atleast 156mph

valence thay go back there. i was reading up on some storms awhile back. they go back i think to 1890 or somthing

sorry 1958. saw 1890 spmewhere else lol

like I told another bloger last night, better to be po'd than dead. I've got 37 days left on the coast and I'm gone, unfortunately, this is the year of the storm!!!!!! I don't know if i'll make it out before it gets me. Man that's funny, I love storms, but I've had enough!!!!!!

tomfdpix-

Thats part of the reason that this discussion we're having is so important. For whatever reason, we are now in an active cyclonic period. (And depending on who you ask, we got 10-30 years left).

Landfalling hurricanes, especially major ones, are going to become a yearly event. I dont know if we'll ever get to Monsters like Katrina and Rita in the same month, but lets hope not.

People choose to evacuate their homes based on the information that is given. The worst thing that can happen is if the public is not given the proper information (i purposely didnt use the word accurate because I dont want to imply any intentional wrongdoing). The second worst thing is if the public is given the proper info, but because of complacency or whatever else chooses to ignore it.

The public needs to be told that if storm A hits point B, this is what is going to happen (whithin a certain range). And when the storm is over, they need to know that they made the right choice to evacuate. If the public looses faith in the accuracy of the NHC, or just starts to believe that these storms are just not as powerful as they actually are, we are going to be hearing more stories like those that came of out of Katrina.

Do you think so many people would have left for Rita if Katrina hadn't happend? Or for Floyd if not for Andrew?

JV

lol

the archive goes back along way guys. I love history and love storms, I know a'lit about all of'em. even tonados in the southcentral us.

so true valence

Valance -- problem is, dumb SOB's will think that "they got it wrong once they'll get it wrong again". I beleive this is not a few years of bad storms, it is a concession of years. Look at the water, it's temp is at records, and this isn't even a hot year here. Not in the south anyway, I grew up here and it just keeps getting hotter. Next year a lot of people are going to die because of this year.

I am sorry I intruded. Leffty. I thought it was a open blog. I guess freedom of speach is gone here.

i don't think they got it wrong. i think u do the best u can. u can only get it soright. next thats why they do a post storm anylasis. i think they will upgrade katrina like they did andrew. and if the damage is bad on the coast rita could get pushed up to 125 or 135 mph. but probly not. we will see

tom, when we are having a peacefull conversation and u come in with gd move on, thats a little differetn. u haven't posted naything in 2-3 hrs and u come in here and tell meto move on and say gd. u come on. don;t u see u was a little out of line

Im sorry, but I seriously doubt that the Labor Day was a cat 5 at landfall There is no way that a storm could be that close to the pennisula and maintain cat 5 intensity. I never realized that it hit the UPPER keys, I always assumed it was the lower ones.

I'll give it a strong cat 4, maybe 150.

Now on to Camille....

JV

I didn't realize its 3am!

I've got pick someone up from the airport tomorrow morning...so i've got to go!

Im sure this discussion will be continued at a later date...so I'll be there

JV

alright boys. i am off to rub the wife and go to sleep. catch yall tomm. good convo tonight

From what I saw, Kat is a 5+, Rita is a 3 at best. Rita did get a last punch in on NO. Thank God she didn't get Houston, $6 gas is out of my budget. I think uping the category of a storm should be illegal, oh wait, the MAN sets the standards:) I'm caucausaion if you're wondereing, thats' a joke.

the labor da stripped flesh off bone, maybe that was crabs, but we'll never know, only witneses saw it. The thing is only recently we do we have so much info. How do we know what happened back then. We can't even compare gilbert to these storms realisticaly, due to the lack of data from sats and the noaa high lev. flights. and thats less than 20 years ago.

The local officials where I live are antsy, they call for mandatory evacautions very early on. I'll take my time boarding up, check the dunes, keep an eye on the storm. By the time I am sure I have to move, I move. By that time traffic has died down, and I take the backroads. Sometimes I have not had to go because the storm turned north earlier than predicted, then I have saved my self a big expensive hassle. For Bertha a few years ago there was an evacuation and we never got a cloud in the sky, so I boarded up but ended up staying. For Floyd, the NHC was emphatic that it would turn before hitting the coast, but when the turn was a little late, I flew out of here, and although all we got was TS force winds I do not regret it, it was not worth the risk.

It seems like something may be stirring around the Lesser Antilles, mear Grenada. Gonna look closer tomorrow.

good night all be cool all i no that the nhc did a lot of lol from this storm this time a round but this storm is overe it been done i no a lot of you like to no why they did not get this at a cat 4 i would like to no to but what not turn this in a big lol so night all

new orleans get ready again..as I told you when rita was forming it would be a cat 5 in the gulf...once again long rage prog.. indicates a cat 1 or 2 entering the gulf thru the yucatan channel this coming friday...this system is now forming in the se carribean..check your sattilite ......

Looks like if something does form and moved thru the Yucatan...it MIGHT get shunted northeastward the end of this week as a cold front is predicted to move south and into the gulf of mexico. Maybe the front doesn't make it that far south. Time will tell...but one front moves thru tomorrow...and if another moves thru Friday...it MIGHT be nearing the END of the hurricane season in the gulf. Whatever does form...if it does...might cross Southern Florida...and head out into the Atlantic...Will see..

Link

IVAN type loop... I was hoping to get some rain in va

HEY HOOKED OLD JOES STORM IN CARRIB IS STARTING TO APPEAR ALSO the news said this winter would be a harsh one isnt that what hes been saying for 3 months hmm he also prelim trackfor carrib is track nw to wnw headed for zone 8 the 2005 hurr magnet oh well his oter one atl coast is looking a little better hey i wonder why nhc and boy wonder nver pick uponn these things forming like he does th awnser is they are model nuts and the old pros are climatological skilled forecasters and on rita a similar storm as elena that hit us in biloxi in 1985. serious but not catrsophic.

Any word from LaDobeLady in Houma? Couldn't stop thinking about them last night then was apalled that the media is considering the inconvenience of the repopulation of Houston instead of the rescues and well-being of people trapped by the storm surge. She said the water was still rising last night.

I'm in Baton Rouge and having a lot of trouble finding any information outside Houston/Galveston or New Orleans (so much for local coverage). If anyone has a live stream or something else I may be able to watch that concerns the area actually impacted (South Louisiana), please let me know. Thanks.

Bastardi is definitely a "forecaster" instead of a model interpreter. He looks at the big picture, never taking into consideration what others think.. Sometimes he is right, sometimes he is wrong.. But when he is wrong, he can fine tune future predictions..Model interpreters have to rely on other people opinion to form their idea.. That is why you have to respect him, and his ability to forecast weather..

Looks like the newest forecast is for Rita not to stall for days, but continue on it's northeast trek. Don't know if this is happen, but if it does, it sure makes the previous models look bad. A few days ago many had Rita stalling and then turning back towards the southwest. Later some had Rita curving back to the south into the Gulf. I still believe that computer models are only somewhat accurate within 48 hours unless the steering currents are very obvious and then they might be somewhat accurate within 72 hours. Five days out the models are mostly inaccurate.

target="_blank">http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3%2Bshtml/144728.shtml?5day?large

Joe Bastardi's forecast via accuweather..."4.) Rita: NO CHANGES ON TRACK. LANDFALL NEAR GLS, THEN SLOW MOVE UP I-45 CORRIDOR. STORM TRAP SET AND BACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO FOLLOW. ANOTHER POST LATER, BUT MAJOR DISASTER SCENARIO MAY COME TO PASS...EVEN BEYOND THE OBVIOUS OF 930-950 MB HURRICANE HIT.".....

Landfall near Galveston.....nope. It hit LA.

Then slow move up I-45 corridor.....wrong. It went north, then northeast thru Arkansas.

Backing southwestward toward Mexico to follow....nope.

Major disaster scenario may come to pass....hasn't happened yet and probably won't.

I guess he's not right all the time either.

Just got back to civilization... Mainly cosmetic damage in JeffdavisParish. My dad stayed at PPG industries in Lake Charles during the storm. He said it was the most awesome thing he had ever experienced. He said around 2am the water came up in the lake out of no where. They were fine in the control room, its blast proof and really high. I saw about 20 air boats lined up in Lacassine on hwy 101 going to Cameron Parish. The surge came inland all the way to the Cameron Calcasieu parish line according to a wildlife agent. He also said Gibbstown Bridge was as far south as they could get due to 5ft of water over hwy. Anything new in the tropics?

Interesting to compare the techniques of old-fashioned "forecasters" and modern "model-watchers". I think a good meteorologist should be both: if the models are verifying and intitializing well, then pay attention to them, but in those circumstances when the models aren't getting any traction, shift to forecaster mode. As NHC always points out, intensity is most difficult to forecast, I would like to see any "forecasters" batting average on intensity averaged over several years compared to the NHC.

For those watching the wave around 63W in the eastern Caribbean, I've heard the forecaster-types call that part of the Caribbean "Hurricane Graveyard". Also there is an old saw, "if it isn't named before it crosses the Lesser Antilles, it probably won't develop in the eastern Caribbean". Hispanolia is like a pike that impales many hurricanes, like 2000 Debby that was a helthy growing Cat 1, tried to cross Hispanolia lengthwise and ended up totally sheared, upper support heading north and lower-level swirl squirting east.

That wave currently around 63W looks to be entering a hostile environment, with that complex of upper lows to the north and west. I guess we will have to see if it can hold together.

REDSTICK, I am just a mile up the street from ladobelady,
She lives in up town houma. She did not get any water in her neighborhood. She is fine and so am I.

Question; What is the possibilities on the carribean disturbance developing and getting into the gulf and once again putting us at risk. Do not know how many times we can be spared from substaintial damage. Put

Sorry that last sentence should have ended up like "and lower-level swirl squirting WEST.

Directional dyslexia, it can be deadly.