Record rains and flooding swamp Rhode Island and Massachusetts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 16:58 GMT le 31 Mars 2010

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Record rains from a slow-moving and extremely wet Nor'easter have triggered historic flooding in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts, with several rivers exceeding their 100-year flood levels. The 16.32" of rain that has fallen on Providence, Rhode Island, this month is the most rain recorded in any month, besting the previous record of 15.38" set in October 2005. Blue Hill Observatory in SE Massachusetts also set a record for wettest month ever, with 18.79" (previous record: 18.78", August 1955.) Records extend back to 1905 and 1885 at the two sites. The Rhode Island all-time state record for heaviest precipitation in a month was smashed as well, thanks to the 19.62" observed this March at North Kingstown. The old state record was 16.70", set at North Foster in October 2005. Many locations in the Northeast recorded their wettest March ever, including New York City and Boston.


Figure 1. Observed precipitation for the month of March. Image credit: NOAA.

From a historical perspective, river flooding in parts of Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts is expected to rival or exceed the all-time record floods of August 1955, when Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit within one week of each other. Several rivers in the region that set their all-time flood heights just two weeks have set new records this week. It's pretty remarkable that we are having record rainfall and record flooding in the cold season month of March. It's much easier to set records in August, when there is much more moisture in the air available for record rains.

Here is a summary of the major flooding occurring, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

* Pawtuxet River in Rhode Island...flooding will exceed what occurred in middle March. Record-shattering flooding is forecast along the Pawtuxet River through Thursday. Records at the Cranston gauge date back to 1939.

* Blackstone River in Rhode Island...flooding at Woonsocket is forecast to be the worst flooding since the flooding associated with Connie and Diane in 1955. However...due to the heavier rains which have fallen below Woonsocket...flood impacts approaching the 1955 event may be realized.

* Charles River at Dover Massachusetts...near record flooding is forecast. This is expected to be the worst flooding since the flooding associated with Connie and Diane in 1955.

* Neponset River at Norwood Massachusetts...major flooding has already occurred...with a crest of 11.2 feet. This crest is well below the record crest of 14.65 feet which occurred in August 1955 with Connie and Diane.

* Sudbury at Saxonville Massachusetts...record flooding is forecast. This will be the worst flooding since the April 1987 flood.

While the storm responsible for the rains has moved out to sea, there will be a prolonged period of urban and small stream flooding...which should last for at least a couple of days. To keep track of the flood situation, use our wundermap with the USGS river layer turned on.

Severe weather season is here
Two tornadoes occurred near Charlotte, NC on Sunday, March 28, 2010. One of these twisters passed within a few miles of one of the FAA's high-resolution TDWR Doppler radars. Our tornado expert, Dr. Rob Carver, has written an excellent post showing high-resolution images and animations of this tornado.

I'll have a new post on April Fool's Day.
Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
after this summer ice extend will be the lowest of all just because ice extend is in a rebuilding phase most is first year ice or as my grandfather would call it slop ice mostly slush fast melting quick to form fast to thaw


Yeah, this summer will likely dip below normal again, but the fact that the winters are holding their own does mean something, and it will be worth watching as we head into a La Nina this winter, which should translate to more sea ice overall during the following 2-3 years.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
LOL - do I have to put you back on drg? I do temporaries, depending. Good debate going on the topic and wasted space from crap?

164's and I'm all good.

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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I miss the old gang....and boy did some funny things happen back then lol.

Hope this reminder of an old buddy helps you feel better, Levi.



Lol Maryland.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Man....I've been reading some of the old blogs. I miss the old gang....and boy did some funny things happen back then lol. Levi32

I found GulfScotsman entertaining.
(caricature of the drunken sailor), at least he played that role even if he became a big abusive at times...and went over the top.
I find the characters on this blog as interesting as many I've met in real life.
By the way, I think Jeff Masters must like you Levi, for your tenacity and willingness to study. You are also good at telling others what is going on.
Just decide what you're going to do and go with it. Not everyone will ever agree with you anyway, so you might as well do what your conscience dictates.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
after this summer ice extend will be the lowest of all just because ice extend is in a rebuilding phase most is first year ice or as my grandfather would call it slop ice mostly slush fast melting quick to form fast to thaw

Ice extend doesn't present the current state of ice melt. You need to look at ice-volume.
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Quoting Seastep:
Where is hawkeye? Loved his dry humor. Fit his avatar to a T.

Not sure if you remember, but I lived in Anchorage. 6-9 grades.


Yeah. And Hawk had a great knowledge of tropical meteorology. At some point after 2005 he and others including myself left this blog entirely due to the craziness and hung out together in Bob's blog. We had some amazing discussions in there. We got at least 100 times the work done in there that this blog was at that time lol. I missed the height of last year's hurricane season so I don't know if it still gets just as crazy or if so many have been banned that it's calmer than it used to be.

Most of the old gang is either gone or just doesn't see a need to post on here anymore. They just lurk from time to time. You'll see some of them re-surface on Bob's blog if he happens to post anything like he did recently.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Report: Koch Industries outspends Exxon Mobil on climate and clean energy disinformation


In a must-read report, Greenpeace details how Koch Industries has “become a financial kingpin of climate science denial and clean energy opposition,” spending over $48.5 million since 1997 to fund the anti-science disinformation machine. Brad Johnson has the story.

Climate Progress and the Wonk Room have long detailed the role of the billionaire brothers of Koch Industries, Charles and David Koch, in destroying American prosperity. Their pollution-based fortunes have fueled a network of right-wing ideologues, from McCain mouthpiece Nancy Pfotenhauer to loony conspiracy theorist Christopher Monckton. In public, the Kochs like to burnish their reputations by buying museum and opera halls.

In private, however, they’ve outspent Exxon Mobil to fund organizations of the climate denial machine, as Greenpeace details in a new report:

Although Koch intentionally stays out of the public eye, it is now playing a quiet but dominant role in a high-profile national policy debate on global warming. Koch Industries has become a financial kingpin of climate science denial and clean energy opposition. This private, out-of-sight corporation is now a partner to Exxon Mobil, the American Petroleum Institute and other donors that support organizations and front-groups opposing progressive clean energy and climate policy. In fact, Koch has out-spent Exxon Mobil in funding these groups in recent years. From 2005 to 2008, Exxon Mobil spent $8.9 million while the Koch Industries-controlled foundations contributed $24.9 million in funding to organizations of the climate denial machine.

This report, “Koch Industries: Secretly Funding the Climate Denial Machine” documents roughly 40 climate denial and opposition organizations receiving Koch foundation grants in recent years, including:

– More than $5 million to Americans for Prosperity Foundation (AFP) for its nationwide “Hot Air Tour” and “Regulation Reality Tour” campaigns to spread misinformation about climate science and oppose clean energy and climate legislation.

– More than $1 million to the Heritage Foundation, a mainstay of misinformation on climate and environmental policy issues.

– Over $1 million to the Cato Institute, which disputes the scientific evidence behind global warming, questions the rationale for taking climate action, and has been heavily involved in spinning the recent ClimateGate smear campaign.

– $800,000 to the Manhattan Institute, which has hosted Bjorn Lomborg twice in the last two years. Lomborg is a prominent media spokesperson who challenges and attacks policy measures to address climate change.

– $365,000 to Foundation for Research on Economics and the Environment (FREE) which advocates against taking action on climate change because warming is “inevitable” and expensive to address.

– $360,000 to Pacific Research Institute for Public Policy (PRIPP) which supported and funded “An Inconvenient Truth…or Convenient Fiction,” a film attacking the science of global warming and intended as a rebuttal to former Vice-President Al Gore’s documentary. PRIPP also threatened to sue the US Government for listing the polar bear as an endangered species.

– $325,000 to the Tax Foundation, which issued a misleading study on the costs of proposed climate legislation.

The blockbuster report covers the role of Koch’s dirty network in promoting the ClimateGate smear campaign, pushing junk science about polar bears, fueling supposedly independent Spanish and Danish studies that attacked green jobs, and selling a pack of lies about the costs of climate legislation.


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Where is hawkeye? Loved his dry humor. Fit his avatar to a T.

Not sure if you remember, but I lived in Anchorage. 6-9 grades.
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I miss the old gang....and boy did some funny things happen back then lol.

Hope this reminder of an old buddy helps you feel better, Levi.

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Quoting Greyelf:


So just because someone pays you, that definitely makes you "better"? There are a lot of people who do things strictly as a hobby who are probably better than people who get paid for the same thing (for example - cooking, photography, sewing, gardening...you get the idea). Truthfully, I'd probably trust forecasts of some on this blog more than I do from my own local TV mets.


Actually I was proving just the opposite. Even as an accredited met, my forecasts are not always correct. Like I said before, its sad, but our consultants are more interested on how we look versus how accurate our forecasts are.
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This is how much fun we used to have. We were so insane lol. I miss those guys.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
157. xcool
:)
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Good point KOTG. But still...
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LOL. Yes.

Here's my ignore list... and I believe they are all the same individual.

PORTCHARLOTTE72
apocalyps
apocalyps2
Randrewx
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after this summer ice extend will be the lowest of all just because ice extend is in a rebuilding phase most is first year ice or as my grandfather would call it slop ice mostly slush fast melting quick to form fast to thaw
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Quoting Seastep:
What's the earliest troll formation on record?


This is one of the earliest posts of the earliest trolls that we ever had(STORMTOP). This is from 2005 when the season was just starting to kick and get worrysome. Emily was a Cat 4 in the Caribbean at this time. Notice what his forecast was and what really happened.

100. STORMTOP 3:52 PM AKDT on July 17, 2005

THIS HURRICANE IS DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AND TAKING MORE OF A NORTH TRACK...YOU CAN SEE THE POSITIONS IN THE LAST 4 ADVISORIES.....EMILY LIKE I SAID ALL ALONG WOULD MISS THE YUCATAN AND STAY OVER WATER BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN..NOW ANOTHER FACTOR IS AFFECTING EMILY UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER CAUSING THE TEMPORARY SLOW DOWN OF EMILY....I STILL STICK TO MY FORECAST THE HIGH HAS WEAKENED AND THE TROUGH OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND WILL NUDGE EMILY NW AND THE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A COLD FRONT SET TO COME DOWN TO ARKANSAS..THIS WILL GIVE EMILY A GREAT CHANCE TO MOVE STRAIGHT NW OR NNW AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL GO UP ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND LA COAST MONDAY NIGHT...sTORMtOP


Man....I've been reading some of the old blogs. I miss the old gang....and boy did some funny things happen back then lol.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Greyelf - Chucktown is a good guy from my experience. His analysis enters the equation for me.
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Quoting Ossqss:



Yup, but the question will come as to the age of the ice, and the relevance of such and the impact of the wind with respect to the older ice :)



In my humble opinion, the global average is more appropriate to watch. Cycles happen!

The see / saw >>>>


Indeed :)

We're back up close to normal globally at the moment.

Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
145. Levi32

That's not possible. Supposed to be gone by, what, 2015? That's just off the top of my head but is irrelevant.... close enough.

That being said, seems to me that heat is not necessarily where I'd like it to be right about now.

Would rather see that trend in, say, November.
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Quoting Levi32:
Here we go....we are now touching 2003 and are poised to pass it and set a 9-year high for arctic sea ice for this time of year.



And look how close we are to the long-term average now. We are gaining ice instead of losing like we are supposed to this time of year, in part due to the negative AO.




Yup, but the question will come as to the age of the ice, and the relevance of such and the impact of the wind with respect to the older ice :)



In my humble opinion, the global average is more appropriate to watch. Cycles happen!

The see / saw >>>>
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Quoting Seastep:
What's the earliest troll formation on record?

jan 1
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Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, but I get paid for my "poor" forecasts.


So just because someone pays you, that definitely makes you "better"? There are a lot of people who do things strictly as a hobby who are probably better than people who get paid for the same thing (for example - cooking, photography, sewing, gardening...you get the idea). Truthfully, I'd probably trust forecasts of some on this blog more than I do from my own local TV mets.
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What's the earliest troll formation on record?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here we go....we are now touching 2003 and are poised to pass it and set a 9-year high for arctic sea ice for this time of year.



And look how close we are to the long-term average now. We are gaining ice instead of losing like we are supposed to this time of year, in part due to the negative AO.

Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
144. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER PAUL (11U)
11:00 AM CST April 1 2010
=================================

At 9:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Paul (998 hPa) located at 14.8S 136.8E or 130 kms east southeast of Numbulwar and 110 kms south southeast of Alyangula has 10 minutes sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 3 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul is currently over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to move south towards the coast during Thursday. The system is no longer expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

Heavy rainfall and strong, squally winds are expected to continue in the Roper-McArthur District during Thursday.

Cyclone Watch Update
======================
The Cyclone WATCH for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield to the NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt, has been cancelled.

This is the final tropical cyclone advice on this system
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Quoting Levi32:


Well there can't be anywhere else he could get a high temporal-resolution CFS forecast that far out so you can see the tropical cyclones, at least that I know of. But we'll see. Chances are if we do get a May storm it will come out of the western Caribbean and yes Florida is the most likely place to be affected. That's how May climatology is. If we get a May storm, the path Jeff has described is so climatological he will likely be able to say he was right...lol.



LOL... I agree 100%.
Member Since: 7 septembre 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
Quoting Jeff9641:


Your severe wx chances are looking good in a couple of days.




here is day 3 outlook
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Quoting Jeff9641:


No hard feelings I just feel this is a potential scenario.


No hard feelings, but people do come to this site when "it hits the fan" during hurricane season and we can't cry wolf. Everyone on here is equally entitled to predict what may happen, but sometimes when a forecast that just seems a bit too crazy to make, ya just gotta say something.
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TRMM pass of former Tropical Cyclone Paul, still drenching the Northern Territory of Australia with copious amounts of rain. This pass was from 16:00UTC, which is about 10 hours old now.



TRMM 7-day rainfall accumulations show over 2 feet of rain has fallen over parts of the Northern Territory during the past week.

Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting Levi32:


Well there can't be anywhere else he could get a high temporal-resolution CFS forecast that far out so you can see the tropical cyclones, at least that I know of. But we'll see. Chances are if we do get a May storm it will come out of the western Caribbean and yes Florida is the most likely place to be affected. That's how May climatology is. If we get a May storm, the path Jeff has described is so climatological he will likely be able to say he was right...lol.


Thank you Levi, well said.
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Howdy, this was kinda cool :)



From http://spaceweather.com/

And about Iridescence in lenticular clouds -- use the buttons on the top right to see more on this link, the fogbows are really neat >>>

L8R
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lots of time to see what will be
still have to get the first wave which is about two weeks away
normally by mid april you start to see the first of them making there way
forecasts of things months ahead mean nothing at the moment all but a shot in the dark


Well actually, based on Weather456's observations of the first tropical wave from 2004-2009, the first true one has been coming off in early-mid May.



2009 isn't on the graphic, but the first tropical wave that year came on May 13th.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting Jeff9641:


I never said this will happen. I said there are indications! Thanks buddy as full on assualt is on me tonight.


No Jeff, I think your a great blogger, I am not trying to attack you. I think any forecast past 7-10 days is difficult, we as humans just cannot put all the variables into a computer and come up with a consistent accurate forecast!

Lord knows I am not a meteorologist, and when it comes to Tropical forecast, I rank around -0- in my guesstimates. I do better with severe weather, as I live in Arlington, TX, Tornado Alley USA!
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I looked at the CFS before I asked him. But I had to ask because I didn't see a system impacting Florida, like he claims. Plus... You can't see Panama using that website.


Well there can't be anywhere else he could get a high temporal-resolution CFS forecast that far out so you can see the tropical cyclones, at least that I know of. But we'll see. Chances are if we do get a May storm it will come out of the western Caribbean and yes Florida is the most likely place to be affected. That's how May climatology is. If we get a May storm, the path Jeff has described is so climatological he will likely be able to say he was right...lol.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Quoting Jeff9641:


What a TURKEY to say I constantly berate this blog I'm not even near as close to being as bad as some of you on here.


Yea, but I get paid for my "poor" forecasts.
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lots of time to see what will be
still have to get the first wave which is about two weeks away
normally by mid april you start to see the first of them making there way
forecasts of things months ahead mean nothing at the moment all but a shot in the dark
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Quoting Chucktown:


Please stop with these insane forecasts. It is the last day of March and you have the audacity to tell everyone that a low will form off the coast of Panama in late May and effect Florida. I am a TV meteorologist and am hoping to get the 7 day forecast at least halfway right. You constantly berate this blog with outlandish forcasts about severe weather and hurricane predictions. Give it a rest.

There is a lot of truth to that Chucktown. The atmosphere is dynamic, so many variables are in the equation everyday, especially in the temperate zones around the world. To make any prediction, so far in advance is not a real good idea. The El Nino may be in full retreat by summer, but there are too many variables to make any reasonable forecast!

And Jeff if your right, I like my crow well done!!
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Jeff9641:


Really, that's funny because I'm the only who can get a forecast halfway right on a consistant basis. Maybe you should take notes! When I say there bad weather coming it comes maybe not as bad as I predicted but it happens like the tornado in the Miami area on Monday.


I visit the Storm Prediction Center website every day, sometimes more when there is a chance and I can read the severe weather outlook Day 5 just like you.
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Quoting Levi32:


I know where he got it lol....

CFS 1560-hour forecast everyone on the SE coast better prepare! Lol.



I looked at the CFS before I asked him. But I had to ask because I didn't see a system impacting Florida, like he claims. Plus... You can't see Panama using that website.
Member Since: 7 septembre 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
Quoting bappit:
Levi, I like it when you post links to the source of your graphics. I noticed you did that in post 112 except for some. Posting the actual links will help your fellow bloggers and cut down on the number of times you have to post what they can look up themselves.

Just a suggestion. Have a nice day.


Yeah, I know. I don't usually take the time (it takes a whole lot longer typing up all the html), especially when I'm posting multiple graphics and I want to respond promptly to a post. If someone asks me for a link I will give it....too time-consuming otherwise. My blog entries always have links for the graphics though.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
Except in the 1560 hour GFS. Ow!
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113

Get used to seeing a low over Panama. It is almost always there. Almost nothing ever comes of it.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


What model might that be?


I know where he got it lol....

CFS 1560-hour forecast everyone on the SE coast better prepare! Lol.

Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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