Record rains and flooding swamp Rhode Island and Massachusetts
Record rains from a slow-moving and extremely wet Nor'easter have triggered historic flooding in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts, with several rivers exceeding their 100-year flood levels. The 16.32" of rain that has fallen on Providence, Rhode Island, this month is the most rain recorded in any month, besting the previous record of 15.38" set in October 2005. Blue Hill Observatory in SE Massachusetts also set a record for wettest month ever, with 18.79" (previous record: 18.78", August 1955.) Records extend back to 1905 and 1885 at the two sites. The Rhode Island all-time state record for heaviest precipitation in a month was smashed as well, thanks to the 19.62" observed this March at North Kingstown. The old state record was 16.70", set at North Foster in October 2005. Many locations in the Northeast recorded their wettest March ever, including New York City and Boston.
Figure 1. Observed precipitation for the month of March. Image credit: NOAA.
From a historical perspective, river flooding in parts of Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts is expected to rival or exceed the all-time record floods of August 1955, when Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit within one week of each other. Several rivers in the region that set their all-time flood heights just two weeks have set new records this week. It's pretty remarkable that we are having record rainfall and record flooding in the cold season month of March. It's much easier to set records in August, when there is much more moisture in the air available for record rains.
Here is a summary of the major flooding occurring, courtesy of the National Weather Service:
* Pawtuxet River in Rhode Island...flooding will exceed what occurred in middle March. Record-shattering flooding is forecast along the Pawtuxet River through Thursday. Records at the Cranston gauge date back to 1939.
* Blackstone River in Rhode Island...flooding at Woonsocket is forecast to be the worst flooding since the flooding associated with Connie and Diane in 1955. However...due to the heavier rains which have fallen below Woonsocket...flood impacts approaching the 1955 event may be realized.
* Charles River at Dover Massachusetts...near record flooding is forecast. This is expected to be the worst flooding since the flooding associated with Connie and Diane in 1955.
* Neponset River at Norwood Massachusetts...major flooding has already occurred...with a crest of 11.2 feet. This crest is well below the record crest of 14.65 feet which occurred in August 1955 with Connie and Diane.
* Sudbury at Saxonville Massachusetts...record flooding is forecast. This will be the worst flooding since the April 1987 flood.
While the storm responsible for the rains has moved out to sea, there will be a prolonged period of urban and small stream flooding...which should last for at least a couple of days. To keep track of the flood situation, use our wundermap with the USGS river layer turned on.
Severe weather season is here
Two tornadoes occurred near Charlotte, NC on Sunday, March 28, 2010. One of these twisters passed within a few miles of one of the FAA's high-resolution TDWR Doppler radars. Our tornado expert, Dr. Rob Carver, has written an excellent post showing high-resolution images and animations of this tornado.
I'll have a new post on April Fool's Day.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I was browsing the web and I came across "the sun", lol. After examining closely sunspots 1057 and 1059 appear to be flaring up, hmmmm, maybe something to watch.
In other news, I was watching something online and there was this prediction of at least 1 hurricane impacting Florida, fact or fiction, please hit me back with your thoughts concerning Florida impacting hurricanes in 2010.
-MiamiHurricanes09
19 Names Storms
7 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes.
- MSNBC did a quite startling article that said "15 of which named storms would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and therefore a threat to land."
Below is the link to the article:
That's a direct quote from Joe Bastardi's hurricane forecast.
Link
I don't think so, but it's a little early to make a case for that yet in my opinion.
Well let's see!
Here is the answer to your question:
House of Representatives:
Democrats for: 152
Democrats against: 96
Republicans for: 138
Republicans against: 34
63% of Democrats in the house voted against
25% of Republicans in the house voted against
Senate:
Democrats for: 46
Democrats against: 21
Republicans for: 27
Republicans against: 6
46% of Democrats in the senate voted against.
22% of Republicans in the senate voted against.
YOUR ANSWER: THE REPUBLICANS PASSED THE CIVIL RIGHTS LEGISLATION! If the Dems had the super majority they have today in both houses, with these ratios, the civil rights bill would have failed.
Listen man, take you own advice about stepping into time without a hat. Dems were all about segregation. And when it was time to pony up and finally realize that all men were equal and had equal rights under the law, the Dems passed the Welfare Act, literally taking these poor people who had been oppressed for centuries by Dems, and removing whatever motivation they would have to achieve the American dream. They suck on the teet...and Dems remind them that its Dems they have to thank for that teet. Stay lazy. Pop as many kids as you want...the government will take care of you now.
Geez...
4
"Good post."
Jeez Louise, your polictical history is about as good as your climatology.
The southern Democrats were politicians who did not want to be associated with the party of Abraham Lincoln. For example, in BR they had a Democrat representative around that time named John Rarick. A little tidbit on this character:
"Rarick quickly compiled a very conservative voting record, even by Louisiana Democratic standards. According to one scoring method, published in the American Journal of Political Science,[6] Rarick was the second most conservative Democrat of either chamber of Congress between 1937 and 2002.[7] In a period of four years, 1971–1974, the American Conservative Union gave Rarick a perfect score of 100 three times, and a score of 91 once (in 1973).[8] He was also a member of the pro-segregation White Citizens' Council. He often spoke at events sponsored by the anticommunist John Birch Society.[9]" -- Wikipedia
Now Back to the Future.
All the politicians from the south since then with views similar to Rarick are now in the Republican party.
I think "extreme" aptly defines a season of 16-18 storms, which Bastardi is forecasting. There have only been 4 seasons since 1900 with more than 16 named storms (correct me if I'm wrong), so that is definitely a rare class. So based on JB's forecast, he could define it as "extreme" and I think that's an appropriate word, especially since he's forecast 7 U.S. landfalls as well.
From the new Australian ENSO Wrap-up:
Summary: El Nino breakdown resumes
The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific continues to cool.
OLR is leveling off for the first time since last November:
And the trade winds are beginning to resume a normal easterly regime:
All these things point towards a decaying El Nino.
What is this Panama low you keep talking about....where are you seeing this...the CFS? Lol. We don't need to be concerned about a model run predicting a tropical storm 2 months away.
What model might that be?
Please stop with these insane forecasts. It is the last day of March and you have the audacity to tell everyone that a low will form off the coast of Panama in late May and effect Florida. I am a TV meteorologist and am hoping to get the 7 day forecast at least halfway right. You constantly berate this blog with outlandish forcasts about severe weather and hurricane predictions. Give it a rest.
Just a suggestion. Have a nice day.
I know where he got it lol....
CFS 1560-hour forecast everyone on the SE coast better prepare! Lol.
Get used to seeing a low over Panama. It is almost always there. Almost nothing ever comes of it.
Yeah, I know. I don't usually take the time (it takes a whole lot longer typing up all the html), especially when I'm posting multiple graphics and I want to respond promptly to a post. If someone asks me for a link I will give it....too time-consuming otherwise. My blog entries always have links for the graphics though.
I looked at the CFS before I asked him. But I had to ask because I didn't see a system impacting Florida, like he claims. Plus... You can't see Panama using that website.
I visit the Storm Prediction Center website every day, sometimes more when there is a chance and I can read the severe weather outlook Day 5 just like you.
There is a lot of truth to that Chucktown. The atmosphere is dynamic, so many variables are in the equation everyday, especially in the temperate zones around the world. To make any prediction, so far in advance is not a real good idea. The El Nino may be in full retreat by summer, but there are too many variables to make any reasonable forecast!
And Jeff if your right, I like my crow well done!!
still have to get the first wave which is about two weeks away
normally by mid april you start to see the first of them making there way
forecasts of things months ahead mean nothing at the moment all but a shot in the dark
Yea, but I get paid for my "poor" forecasts.
Well there can't be anywhere else he could get a high temporal-resolution CFS forecast that far out so you can see the tropical cyclones, at least that I know of. But we'll see. Chances are if we do get a May storm it will come out of the western Caribbean and yes Florida is the most likely place to be affected. That's how May climatology is. If we get a May storm, the path Jeff has described is so climatological he will likely be able to say he was right...lol.
No Jeff, I think your a great blogger, I am not trying to attack you. I think any forecast past 7-10 days is difficult, we as humans just cannot put all the variables into a computer and come up with a consistent accurate forecast!
Lord knows I am not a meteorologist, and when it comes to Tropical forecast, I rank around -0- in my guesstimates. I do better with severe weather, as I live in Arlington, TX, Tornado Alley USA!
Well actually, based on Weather456's observations of the first tropical wave from 2004-2009, the first true one has been coming off in early-mid May.
2009 isn't on the graphic, but the first tropical wave that year came on May 13th.
From http://spaceweather.com/
And about Iridescence in lenticular clouds -- use the buttons on the top right to see more on this link, the fogbows are really neat >>>
L8R
Thank you Levi, well said.
TRMM 7-day rainfall accumulations show over 2 feet of rain has fallen over parts of the Northern Territory during the past week.
No hard feelings, but people do come to this site when "it hits the fan" during hurricane season and we can't cry wolf. Everyone on here is equally entitled to predict what may happen, but sometimes when a forecast that just seems a bit too crazy to make, ya just gotta say something.
here is day 3 outlook
LOL... I agree 100%.
Tropical Cyclone Advice
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER PAUL (11U)
11:00 AM CST April 1 2010
=================================
At 9:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Paul (998 hPa) located at 14.8S 136.8E or 130 kms east southeast of Numbulwar and 110 kms south southeast of Alyangula has 10 minutes sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 3 knots.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul is currently over the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to move south towards the coast during Thursday. The system is no longer expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.
Heavy rainfall and strong, squally winds are expected to continue in the Roper-McArthur District during Thursday.
Cyclone Watch Update
======================
The Cyclone WATCH for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield to the NT/Qld border, including Groote Eylandt, has been cancelled.
This is the final tropical cyclone advice on this system
And look how close we are to the long-term average now. We are gaining ice instead of losing like we are supposed to this time of year, in part due to the negative AO.
So just because someone pays you, that definitely makes you "better"? There are a lot of people who do things strictly as a hobby who are probably better than people who get paid for the same thing (for example - cooking, photography, sewing, gardening...you get the idea). Truthfully, I'd probably trust forecasts of some on this blog more than I do from my own local TV mets.
jan 1
Yup, but the question will come as to the age of the ice, and the relevance of such and the impact of the wind with respect to the older ice :)
In my humble opinion, the global average is more appropriate to watch. Cycles happen!
The see / saw >>>>
That's not possible. Supposed to be gone by, what, 2015? That's just off the top of my head but is irrelevant.... close enough.
That being said, seems to me that heat is not necessarily where I'd like it to be right about now.
Would rather see that trend in, say, November.
Indeed :)
We're back up close to normal globally at the moment.
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