Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Aww...hit a snag. 2004 was obviously a busy Caribbean year near the Caymans (and Florida...) but March-April sea-level pressure anomalies were positive. I'd try May anomalies next but that's after mango blossoming season. I can't think of anything else Meteorologically that might affect or set off the plants.

2004 March-April sea-level pressure anomalies:

sorry guys...Didn't mean to bust in on ya all...but I just couldn't believe what I was hearing that guy say...yall have at it...Auburn Out!!!

Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, but wouldn't it be so cool if we made a collection of all those tales, then made a checklist for every year to see how well it verifies? I bet we could find some very intriguing stuff to go on. I really want to find a way to do that sometime, but I wouldn't know where to find all the old wives tales. Maybe I should make a blog for people to post the ones they hear about in their communities.

Not a bad idea. Could provide someone with some material for their thesis. Could prove interesting.

Quoting StormW:
Animals do sense weather changes. I was stationed on a Cutter in Portsmouth, VA. back in 1993. Hurricane Emily was heading for us. The evening before watches and warnings went up, it was an eerie quiet. Usually, there were squirrels running around and climbing trees. There were normally birds chattering and flying around. That night, there was quiet. There was not one squirrel to be found, nor were there any birds flying around, not even any chirpping...it was dead quiet.

I have witnessed that a few times myself Storm. They instinctively know when trouble is brewing.

Quoting Levi32:
Aww...hit a snag. 2004 was obviously a busy Caribbean year near the Caymans but March-April Sea-level Pressure Anomalies were positive. I'd try May anomalies next but that's after mango blossoming season. I can't think of anything else Meteorologically that might affect or set off the plants.

2004 March-April sea-level pressure anomalies:

You should try trade winds...

Quoting hydrus:
I have witnessed that a few times myself Storm. They instinctively know when trouble is brewing.

Yes, definitely a scary sight to see a bunch of squirrels with passports in their paws running around. LOL (Only joking) I have witnesssed the same.

Thanks in part to Weather Underground and comments on this blog... my garden this year is a knockout.

Since there is levity in the air today (rather than the AG* word; any time arguments break out I will post on efficiency!) I will give examples of how this site really has helped over the years of lurking and looking at the comments.

Above all it helped to prevent a disasterous evacuation during Rita. While a computational fluid dynamics geek myself I have to admit that I can do nothing myself and have to rely on the comments of others; I was holding off to the last minute anyway (but if it were a 5 headed to Houston I would have been out of there eventually) but it became fairly clear that it was headed towards the stateline quite a ways in advance. Of course the National Weather Service didn't tell anybody this and the day of landfall I got a panicked call from my mother wondering why I was still in Houston with my family (we are at 53 feet.... no flooding danger) and it is like, "Mom, this thing ain't headed towards Houston." Once again, folks at my elevation are not in the evacuation zone but nobody wants to stay around for a cat 5, especially with young kids.

Another real useful product for me has been the degreedays.net site. Hey, in the process of getting 55% better energy use (with the exception of solar, which INCREASED my carbon footprint since the backup was both inefficient AND seriously against code as I learned later) one does a lot one spends a lot of time graphing AC and heating use.

Here was the latest application. Obviously in Houston one likes to plant as early as possible, but this year we had a cold year (although I don't think any records were broken, except for earliest snow). I kept monitoring long range forecasts and went for it in early February with a new bed with about 100 new Texas Native type bushes (have about 300 total). A light freeze is fine but heavies like the early January one would have been a killer. Also got a bit lucky; on the weekend of the extreme cold in January went by the nursery to discuss design of the project and what could go where (knew that nobody would be there) and got 4 trays of free plants that he was getting rid of owing to looks. They all survived planting that weekend without any potting soil; straight into the newly dug Houston gumbo. Turned out they were all red, lavender, and white dyanthis and snapdragons (didn't know the color). And further luck, I am using red mulch and trim because of the solar reflectivity. So everything magically matched.

Wow.

And folks are just beginning to plant :)

Quoting SevereHurricane:


You should try trade winds...

Checked....absolutely no correlation with Caribbean hurricane activity. It's random. In fact every year since 2004 has seen faster-than-normal trade winds in the western Caribbean from December to March, with the exception of 2005 which had slow trades in March, but fast trades before that.

Of course this is all without knowing about the mangos. I'd like to know what they did in every year since 2004, except Stormwatcher said Ivan in 2004 wiped away the fruit for a while. But, years like 2006 should have seen less fruit, and years like 2004, 2005, and 2007 should have seen more.

Quoting SevereHurricane:


You should try trade winds...

But aren't TW anomalies dependent on pressure anomalies?

I asked my folks, and my mom says they used to look at spring tides and so on. Higher than average tides mean it was likely to be busier than normal. She says they also associated dry springs with rainy / stormy hurricane seasons. My dad says they also paid a lot of attention to changes in the skies. I guess none of this is really surprising in a seafaring pple whose livelihood at least partially depended on what they could harvest from the sea. Both my grandfather on one side and my greatgrandfather on the other were sailing sloop captains in the 1920s to 1940s, and they would not have had access to radio, radar or other modern devices. Even a barometer would have been considered a sophisticated and expensive tool in those relatively impoverished times.

Quoting Levi32:


Checked....absolutely no correlation with Caribbean hurricane activity. It's random. In fact every year since 2004 has seen faster-than-normal trade winds in the western Caribbean from December to March, with the exception of 2005 which had slow trades in March, but fast trades before that.

Quoting Levi32:


Checked....absolutely no correlation with Caribbean hurricane activity. It's random. In fact every year since 2004 has seen faster-than-normal trade winds in the western Caribbean from December to March, with the exception of 2005 which had slow trades in March, but fast trades before that.

The answer is probably something very complex that we will never be able to understand.

The Blog was brilliant today.
Genius.
Lexx and the Stranglets also took note.
HadronCollider
Personally, I'm more concerned about the rapid collider experiment this week.

Quoting StormW:


It was the first time I saw anything like that. The only thing I could think of was "oh crap".

We were hit by a freak storm at night on Captiva Island in 1980. Before it hit, you could have heard a pin drop. Complete silence, and then the deafening roar, snapping of all the trees and our 48 footer being slammed into the concrete dock. It happened at South Seas Plantation.

Quoting BahaHurican:
But aren't TW anomalies dependent on pressure anomalies?

That's correct, however, it never hurts to check.

Quoting BahaHurican:
I think the indigeneous fauna fares better in some ways than we might expect. After all, they've likely adapted to landfalling 'canes as part of the natural order of things.... insects like mosquitos and wasps may have a harder time in heavy winds, though I have a feeling they have their own protective measures.

It would be nice if it would help with the mosquitoes. They almost ate us after Ivan and no matter how much the planes spray we can't seem to get rid of that nuisance. Not too bad yet this year though cause we haven't had any rain.

Quoting BahaHurican:
But aren't TW anomalies dependent on pressure anomalies?

I asked my folks, and my mom says they used to look at spring tides and so on. Higher than average tides mean it was likely to be busier than normal. She says they also associated dry springs with rainy / stormy hurricane seasons. My dad says they also paid a lot of attention to changes in the skies. I guess none of this is really surprising in a seafaring pple whose livelihood at least partially depended on what they could harvest from the sea. Both my grandfather on one side and my greatgrandfather on the other were sailing sloop captains in the 1920s to 1940s, and they would not have had access to radio, radar or other modern devices. Even a barometer would have been considered a sophisticated and expensive tool in those relatively impoverished times.

Yes but in the Caribbean it highly depends on where the anomalies are and what the strength of the Columbian Heat Low is. Like I said the trades for the last 6 years were mostly stronger than normal in the winter, despite variations in pressure anomalies over the western Caribbean. You have to get a gradient. If the whole area has either low pressure or high pressure then the relative pressure gradient of the environment is still the same for either situation.

Quoting Levi32:


Checked....absolutely no correlation with Caribbean hurricane activity. It's random. In fact every year since 2004 has seen faster-than-normal trade winds in the western Caribbean from December to March, with the exception of 2005 which had slow trades in March, but fast trades before that.

Of course this is all without knowing about the mangos. I'd like to know what they did in every year since 2004, except Stormwatcher said Ivan in 2004 wiped away the fruit for a while. But, years like 2006 should have seen less fruit, and years like 2004, 2005, and 2007 should have seen more.

It's one thing checking this forward, but I can't think of a way of checking this in the Caribbean. In the smaller islands we mostly don't have enough of a crop for export, and I am not certain what records, if any, exist for locally consumed produce.... but this is an interesting project.

Quoting BahaHurican:
It's one thing checking this forward, but I can't think of a way of checking this in the Caribbean. In the smaller islands we mostly don't have enough of a crop for export, and I am not certain what records, if any, exist for locally consumed produce.... but this is an interesting project.

Indeed...it's too bad that I'm terrible at researching anything that I don't already have a bunch of links to. Googling is overrated.

Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, but wouldn't it be so cool if we made a collection of all those tales, then made a checklist for every year to see how well it verifies? I bet we could find some very intriguing stuff to go on. I really want to find a way to do that sometime, but I wouldn't know where to find all the old wives tales. Maybe I should make a blog for people to post the ones they hear about in their communities.

Sounds like a good idea. We have a few people in the 90's still living and what I have mentioned comes from them. I will see what else I can find out and post it when I get more info. One man 98 years old lives right up the road from me and he is a great story teller. I will have to find the time to sit down and talk to him. Another woman in her 90's told me she remembers the '32 storm and rode out Ivan in her house and Ivan was by far the worst although more lives were lost in '32.

Speaking of disasters and animals. You guys see the news about 96% of male toads in Italy becoming scarce around breeding areas 5 days before an earthquake?

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hmbt1xB2HMz-xdvtcGB2KNhAp3ZAD9EPL5900

Quoting atmoaggie:
Speaking of disasters and animals. You guys see the news about 96% of male toads in Italy becoming scarce around breeding areas 5 days before an earthquake?

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hmbt1xB2HMz-xdvtcGB2KNhAp3ZAD9EPL5900

Yep... Interesting read

Quoting StormW:
Animals do sense weather changes. I was stationed on a Cutter in Portsmouth, VA. back in 1993. Hurricane Emily was heading for us. The evening before watches and warnings went up, it was an eerie quiet. Usually, there were squirrels running around and climbing trees. There were normally birds chattering and flying around. That night, there was quiet. There was not one squirrel to be found, nor were there any birds flying around, not even any chirpping...it was dead quiet.

I have noticed that whenever a storm is approaching Cayman the Man 'o War (Frigate birds I think) begin to fly inland a day or two before it impacts our weather.

The whole mango thing is similar to why the pollen counts are off the charts this year. It stayed cold, with no good growing days, yet rained, so once it warmed things bloomed almost forcefully. This has been the top 3 year of red maple seeds for me (04 & 05 are there). As a conasour of mangos with a local friend I trade for them..there does seem a correlation that that and everything that seeds does better in an active season. 2 weeks of way early warmth last year followed by cold messed with last year causing the double bloom. Those are all long term & each individually not in stone in my book.. but when the swamps flower a show & the saw grass bloom.. the pine beetle infested trees die in groves when there is no drought.. that's the short term warning 'cane is coming.

Someone should find the saw grass blooming quote from the natives leaving as everyone stayed to pick in SFL cause it was paying too much to leave~ then the lake got them. Think it was 1928.

I'm surprised there weren't more protests about the possibility of producing Strangelets at the Super Collision March 30th.
Here is the crux of the matter:
Although nuclei do not decay to strangelets, there are other ways to create strangelets, so if the strange matter hypothesis is correct there should be strangelets in the universe. There are at least three ways they might be created in nature:

Cosmogonically, i.e., in the early universe when the QCD confinement phase transition occurred. It is possible that strangelets were created along with the neutrons and protons which form ordinary matter.

High energy processes. The universe is full of very high-energy particles (cosmic rays). It is possible that when these collide with each other or with neutron stars they may provide enough energy to overcome the energy barrier and create strangelets from nuclear matter.

Cosmic ray impacts. In addition to head-on collisions of cosmic rays, ultra high energy cosmic rays impacting on Earth's atmosphere may create strangelets.

These scenarios offer possibilities for observing strangelets. If there are strangelets flying around the universe, then occasionally a strangelet should hit Earth, where it would appear as an exotic type of cosmic ray. If strangelets can be produced in high energy collisions, then we might make them at heavy-ion colliders.

And we all know what Strangelets do.

Strangelets are one thing but let's hope they don't open up a black hole.

Good evening all

Hurricane Ivan in Grand Cayman

Here, my friends, is the danger of Strangelets:
If the strange matter hypothesis is correct and a strangelet comes in contact with a lump of ordinary matter such as Earth, it could convert the ordinary matter to strange matter.[12][13] This "ice-nine" disaster scenario is as follows: one strangelet hits a nucleus, catalyzing its immediate conversion to strange matter. This liberates energy, producing a larger, more stable strangelet, which in turn hits another nucleus, catalyzing its conversion to strange matter. In the end, all the nuclei of all the atoms of Earth are converted, and Earth is reduced to a hot, large lump of strange matter.

Hi KmanIslander.
We're working on getting you some rain.

Link


NHC Conference:

Quoting Levi32:


Indeed...it's too bad that I'm terrible at researching anything that I don't already have a bunch of links to. Googling is overrated.

What u need is a bunch of eager on the ground research assistants willing to gather the basic data....lol; googling won't help much here, sadly.
But still an intriguing proposition.

I'll bet if you interviewed people about their mango eating experiences during those years you'd find some valuable anecdotal information.

Quoting StormW:
Animals do sense weather changes. I was stationed on a Cutter in Portsmouth, VA. back in 1993. Hurricane Emily was heading for us. The evening before watches and warnings went up, it was an eerie quiet. Usually, there were squirrels running around and climbing trees. There were normally birds chattering and flying around. That night, there was quiet. There was not one squirrel to be found, nor were there any birds flying around, not even any chirpping...it was dead quiet.

I would think they could sense air pressure changes. I can.

And I only thought the Bufo was an annoying cacophony from the everglades.

Toad is a telltale for impending quakes: scientists

Thanks for the update, btw.

Quoting Skyepony:
The whole mango thing is similar to why the pollen counts are off the charts this year. It stayed cold, with no good growing days, yet rained, so once it warmed things bloomed almost forcefully. This has been the top 3 year of red maple seeds for me (04 & 05 are there). As a conasour of mangos with a local friend I trade for them..there does seem a correlation that that and everything that seeds does better in an active season. 2 weeks of way early warmth last year followed by cold messed with last year causing the double bloom. Those are all long term & each individually not in stone in my book.. but when the swamps flower a show & the saw grass bloom.. the pine beetle infested trees die in groves when there is no drought.. that's the short term warning 'cane is coming.

Someone should find the saw grass blooming quote from the natives leaving as everyone stayed to pick in SFL cause it was paying too much to leave~ then the lake got them. Think it was 1928.

Yeah...this is from a paper on the storm.

Many efforts were made to warn people about the hurricane. Local folklore accounts state that Seminole Indians sensed that a storm was approaching. Some document that the Indians noticed the migration of sea birds, unusual blooming of the saw grass and the unnatural activity of the wildlife. The Seminoles tried to warn residents of the Everglades and Lake Okeechobee areas. Few took heed. Those that did leave the area with the Native Americans were spared.



Then this is from another document:

Palmetto bugs come inside when it's going to flood, don't they?

Quoting Chicklit:
I'll bet if you interviewed people about their mango eating experiences during those years you'd find some valuable anecdotal information.

My mango tree is in full bloom now and so is my lime tree and my breadfruit tree. I am going to go out on a limb here, pardon the pun, and call for an above average hurricane season based upon the abovementioned factors.

Quoting Skyepony:

Someone should find the saw grass blooming quote from the natives leaving as everyone stayed to pick in SFL cause it was paying too much to leave~ then the lake got them. Think it was 1928.

Well I found this:

http://www.peoplesobold.net/2005/09/saw-grass-blooming-indigenous.html
Link

Quoting Levi32:


Yeah...this is from a paper on the storm.

Many efforts were made to warn people about the hurricane. Local folklore accounts state that Seminole Indians sensed that a storm was approaching. Some document that the Indians noticed the migration of sea birds, unusual blooming of the saw grass and the unnatural activity of the wildlife. The Seminoles tried to warn residents of the Everglades and Lake Okeechobee areas. Few took heed. Those that did leave the area with the Native Americans were spared.



Then this is from another document:

Ouch... Porto Rico must have been devastated by that storm.

Quoting Levi32:


Checked....absolutely no correlation with Caribbean hurricane activity. It's random. In fact every year since 2004 has seen faster-than-normal trade winds in the western Caribbean from December to March, with the exception of 2005 which had slow trades in March, but fast trades before that.

Of course this is all without knowing about the mangos. I'd like to know what they did in every year since 2004, except Stormwatcher said Ivan in 2004 wiped away the fruit for a while. But, years like 2006 should have seen less fruit, and years like 2004, 2005, and 2007 should have seen more.

I don't really remember much about mangoes in 2007 but we had a great crop of breadfruit that year and didn't even lose many from Dean. I live on the eastern end of the islands which usually receives the brunt from most hurricanes that approach us but 2007 was not bad for crops that year.

Quoting kmanislander:


My mango tree is in full bloom now and so is my lime tree and my breadfruit tree. I am going to go out on a limb here, pardon the pun, and call for an above average hurricane season based upon the abovementioned factors.

I think you're due for a soaking.
We're not having the El Nino this year, looks like more neutral conditions. Was shear that saved you last year.

Quoting kmanislander:


My mango tree is in full bloom now and so is my lime tree and my breadfruit tree. I am going to go out on a limb here, pardon the pun, and call for an above average hurricane season based upon the abovementioned factors.

This is what I have heard from a couple of older folks lately that we need to pay heed this year because the mango tress bore fruit so early this year. My breadfruit tree had on a lot but not holding I think because it is so dry but the lime tree is doing very good.

Quoting Chicklit:

I think you're due for a soaking.
We're not having the El Nino this year, looks like more neutral conditions. Was shear that saved you last year.

Shear and African dust saved us.

This year we have had week after week of one cold front after another. In fact, several weeks have seen two a week. Previous years like this have seen above average activity in the following season so I am expecting that this year will likely see a few close calls for the Caribbean with a couple of strikes.

The real issue is where the Bermuda high sets up.If it bridges back to the SE US we could see big trouble in the Caribbean

Your prayers will be answered CI.
Just be prepared for a deluge.
God is generous and indiscriminate.

Cool link Baha:
"Going to high ground. Saw-grass bloom. Hurricane coming."
Zora Neal Hurston was a lyrical writer.

has anyone gone outside tonight????,must be thousands of meteors per hour,it looks like the end of the world!!!..

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This is what I have heard from a couple of older folks lately that we need to pay heed this year because the mango tress bore fruit so early this year. My breadfruit tree had on a lot but not holding I think because it is so dry but the lime tree is doing very good.

Lime trees like it dry. My breadfruit tree did drop a couple but the rest are holding and getting quite large.

I still think the cold front frequency is a better gauge for an active season to come.

Quoting kmanislander:


Lime trees like it dry. My breadfruit tree did drop a couple but the rest are holding and getting quite large.

I still think the cold front frequency is a better gauge for an active season to come.

We had quite a few pass through this year.

Quoting kmanislander:


My mango tree is in full bloom now and so is my lime tree and my breadfruit tree. I am going to go out on a limb here, pardon the pun, and call for an above average hurricane season based upon the abovementioned factors.

LOL May I suggest that the limb u go out on not be on the lime tree??? lol could be painful......

Quoting stillwaiting:
has anyone gone outside tonight????,must be thousands of meteors per hour,it looks like the end of the world!!!..are there any astroids close to the earth????this is really scary

April Fools?

Quoting kmanislander:


Lime trees like it dry. My breadfruit tree did drop a couple but the rest are holding and getting quite large.

I still think the cold front frequency is a better gauge for an active season to come.

We're in agreement then.
I have not seen any African dust predictions.
What are people saying about the Trade Winds?

Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL May I suggest that the limb u go out on not be on the lime tree??? lol could be painful......

Ouch !!

Hey kman. Good to see you.