Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Polish president dies in plane crash during heavy fog
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:06 GMT le 10 avril 2010 +3
Always obey your air traffic controllers. That's the cardinal rule of of aviation, and one apparently violated by the pilot of the aircraft carrying the Polish president and dozens of the country's top political and military leaders, which crashed in heavy fog this morning near Smolensk, Russia. All 96 people aboard perished. According to the New York Times, air traffic controllers had recommended the president's jet land in nearby Minsk because of bad visibility, but the crew decided to land anyway. The Polish news channel TVN24 reported that moments before the crash, air traffic controllers had refused a Russian military aircraft permission to land, but that they could not refuse permission to the Polish plane. Russian media reported that the airplane's crew made several attempts to land before a wing hit the treetops and the plane crashed about half a mile from the runway.


Figure 1. a large patch of fog covers the Russian city of Smolensk and regions to the east in this visible light image captured by NASA's Terra satellite between 08:00 - 11:15 UTC Saturday, April 10, 2010. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System, visualized using Google Earth.

At 10 am local time, near the time of the crash, the Smolensk airport reported heavy fog with visibility 0.5 km (3/10 of a mile). As seen in the satellite image taken near this time (Figure 1), a large bank of fog covered Smolensk and neighboring regions of Russia and Belarus.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Aviation
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501. NttyGrtty 01:01 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:


You haven't shed any light to what actually happened and I see no reason to question both sources at this time.
NOBODY has shed any light on what actually happened, that's the point, and I see several reasons to question all that are defending this blog topic without ANY actual expertise on the subject. I'm out, WU mail anything else please, I'll bring up my original question with the author as I should have in the first place. Ya'll will argue (as opposed to debate/discuss) anything for the sake of the arguement. If you have a serious discussion, please WUmail, I'll talk pilot s__t all day. Nite...
Member Since: 11 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 664
502. PcolaJess 01:03 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting indianrivguy:


that's the only way they are awarded


oh, oops!
503. gordydunnot 01:05 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Your right Pat the storm surge is the greatest danger in the gulf almost anywhere you look, larger the storm the bigger the danger I was just speaking of wind strength. Yes Sky that seems to be exactly what is happening in S. Fl. when a storm approaches from the SW,IE Wilma. It draws strength from the everglades and the gulf stream to the east.
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505. Drakoen 01:08 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting NttyGrtty:
NOBODY has shed any light on what actually happened, that's the point, and I see several reasons to question all that are defending this blog topic without ANY actual expertise on the subject. I'm out, WU mail anything else please, I'll bring up my original question with the author as I should have in the first place. Ya'll will argue (as opposed to debate/discuss) anything for the sake of the arguement. If you have a serious discussion, please WUmail, I'll talk pilot s__t all day. Nite...


And now you bring me back to post 443
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507. PcolaDan 01:20 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:


A discussion is an argument. Picking a side a defending it is argument and discussion.


Okay, I'll play the semantics game. Technically you are correct so I will rephrase (although there are nuances that generally dictate when each word is used). (Never heard a Mom holler for the kids to stop that discussing.) There seem to be some people that come here for the sole reason of causing a verbal ruckus. I may even be considered one of those by some in here. My point is, why can't these talks remain civil? Maybe my definition of civility is different.
Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
508. SQUAWK 01:46 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
According to the New York Times, air traffic controllers had recommended the president's jet land in nearby Minsk because of bad visibility, but the crew decided to land anyway. The Polish news channel TVN24 reported that moments before the crash, air traffic controllers had refused a Russian military aircraft permission to land, but that they could not refuse permission to the Polish plane.

from the NY Times as posted below by Drak,

"A top Russian military official said air traffic controllers at the Smolensk airport had several times ordered the crew of the plane not to land, warned that it was descending below the glide path and recommended it reroute to another airport."


Radar had the Aircraft too Low on Approach,and well,dat Radar stuff been round a tad time wise.

Also the Russian ATC Ordered a Russian Military Flight to wave Off but the Polish Crew decided to make that last Fatal run at the Runway.

And Failed to make it.

Always land Long.

The CVR and CDR will Let us know the Pilots reasons and actions as they were both recovered

Piloting 101...never land short.

Thats a BAD way to fly.


Not always a good option Pat. I watched a P-3 land long at Norfolk NAS in the fog and he ran off the end of the duty runway, down the hill, through the fence and into the pond. Ruined his day. I happened to be in ops and saw his landing gear go by the window on his approach and we all knew he was in big trouble. Ops was halfway down the runway.
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509. Skyepony (Mod) 01:47 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Brazilian authorities have evacuated thousands of shantytown residents so their houses could be demolished after heavy rains that killed 224 people last week threatened further landslides.

Rio mayor Eduardo Paes said residents of the Morro de Urubu favelas (shantytowns) were being evacuated starting on Saturday ahead of demolitions planned for Monday.

The mayor decreed late last week that residents could be forcibly removed from their neighbourhoods, perched precariously on hillsides.

"There is still a risks of rains in the city. We cannot let people stay in danger zones," he said, noting that some 10,000 people live in the designated "risk areas".

Families will receive a "social pension" of $US141 ($A150.64) each month to pay for temporary housing until new houses are built, the mayor said.

On a visit to the Morro do Bumba slum in Niteroi on Sunday, Rio state Governor Sergio Cabral announced the federal government would provide a loan of some $US2.3 billion ($A2.46 billion) to cover damages.

The slum, where dozens of houses were destroyed by landslides, was built on an old garbage dump, compacted by time. The hillside gave way after the heavy rains, burying alive some hundreds of people, according to official estimates.
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510. Skyepony (Mod) 01:49 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29243
511. all4hurricanes 01:50 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting PcolaJess:


oh, oops!

actually the point of the Darwin award is to honor those who are clearing stupidity from the gene pool by removing their genes, so if a person is unable to reproduce because of something stupid they did they can still win a Darwin Award. Just saying
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512. PcolaDan 01:53 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Interesting, 6.8 in the Solomon Islands and 6.3 in Spain and neither appears to have aftershocks. Wonder if this is normal in those areas.
Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
514. Patrap 01:54 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting SQUAWK:


Not always a good option Pat. I watched a P-3 land long at Norfolk NAS in the fog and he ran off the end of the duty runway, down the hill, through the fence and into the pond. Ruined his day. I happened to be in ops and saw his landing gear go by the window on his approach and we all knew he was in big trouble. Ops was halfway down the runway.


Musta been quite da sight.

"Always Land Long" is a old Air Wing adage,..that applies to Runways and Hook catching on Naval Carriers.

Marine Aviator Lingo.

Neil Armstrong Landed Long during Apollo 11..and will tell ya da same.

But he was a Civilian Pilot when flying Apollo 11.
Mike and Buzz were Active Duty Air Force and had to fill out Travel Vouchers.


Spent some time at Oceania, NAS in 82
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515. Drakoen 01:55 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting presslord:
Q "How far do you think we can fly in the fog?"

A "All the way to the crash site..."


lol?
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
516. Bordonaro 01:56 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting PcolaDan:
Interesting, 6.8 in the Solomon Islands and 6.3 in Spain and neither appears to have aftershocks. Wonder if this is normal in those areas.

I am guessing that the quakes in Spain and in the Solomon Islands are on a subduction zone, where one plate dives under the other. Those seem to produce deeper quakes and fewer aftershocks.
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517. TampaSpin 01:58 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
515. Drakoen 1:55 AM GMT on April 12, 2010
Quoting presslord:
Q "How far do you think we can fly in the fog?"

A "All the way to the crash site..."


lol?



We are making jokes and laughing about death. Are you all kidding. WOW!

Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
518. presslord 01:59 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
yes....as a matter of fact...we are kidding...
Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377
520. pottery 02:02 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Er, anyone know where I can buy some rain?
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703
521. TampaSpin 02:02 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting presslord:
yes....as a matter of fact...we are kidding...


Nice joking about death.....NICE!
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
523. Patrap 02:03 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Well..if one had a lil Knowledge one would never land short of a carrier in my estimate..LOL

And Landing Middle Cable is preferred,but thats why one hits full Power at Contact,..

But you knew that?
Didnt,ya?

LOL

"Call da Ball"..




There are people who make things happen, there are people who watch things happen, and there are people who wonder what happened. To be successful, you need to be a person who makes things happen.
James A. Lovell
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524. TampaSpin 02:06 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
NO MORE PORTLIGHT SPONSORSHIP efforts from me!
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
525. Bordonaro 02:06 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting pottery:
Er, anyone know where I can buy some rain?

My friend, I wish we could lend you some rain. I know that you're experiencing a bad drought. Hopefully, the El Nino will die out quickly and weather for Trinidad and Tobago will return to normal.

If it's any consolation, I live in the Dallas-ft Worth, TX area. We has one wet and snowy winter (which was bizarre, it almost never snows in this part of TX) and now it has been almost 3 weeks since we had a meaningful rainfall.
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
526. presslord 02:07 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
The disturbing thing, I suspect, is not that I'm laughing at death...but that I'm laughing at stupidity...

...might as well own it now..
Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377
527. pottery 02:08 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Saw an incredible Meteorite this evening, south-west to north-east.
Left a trail of scarlet stuff behind and I thought at the time "...I should be able to HEAR that!
Pretty sight.
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703
530. Drakoen 02:09 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting presslord:
The disturbing thing, I suspect, is not that I'm laughing at death...but that I'm laughing at stupidity...


What a revelation
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
531. Skyepony (Mod) 02:09 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Some hail over TX/OK..floater 1 is on it.
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29243
532. pottery 02:09 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:
NO MORE PORTLIGHT SPONSORSHIP efforts from me!


heheheheh, Weirdness on a Sunday night.
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533. Bordonaro 02:11 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting presslord:
The disturbing thing, I suspect, is not that I'm laughing at death...but that I'm laughing at stupidity...

The Polish government was probably under pressure from their own superiors on board the plane to land the plane and not divert to another airport. It appears to just be a tragic accident, their pilots were probably very good pilots, but misjudged the situation.
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
534. jpritch 02:12 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
I think it's probably human nature if you're a pilot to defend the pilot, so it's not surprising to see some of these posts.

Here's the thing, though... You have heavy fog, an airport without instrument landing systems or lights. (Yeah, not even landing lights, just a lit antenna tower nearby.) The controllers are ordering the pilot to stop descending and land elsewhere. There have already been three unsuccessful attempts to land, and the lives of the pilot's most important military and political leaders are at stake.

It's extraordinarily unlikely that any experienced pilot would choose to attempt another landing under these circumstances unless they were told to do so by a superior. Add to that that Kaczynski had a history of pressuring pilots to land, so even if the pilot was not ordered to land, he might have felt pressure to do so.

It's tragic all the way around.
Member Since: 28 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
535. Bordonaro 02:14 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting pottery:
Saw an incredible Meteorite this evening, south-west to north-east.
Left a trail of scarlet stuff behind and I thought at the time "...I should be able to HEAR that!
Pretty sight.


About 30-45 minutes ago we had a bright flash here in Arlington, TX. We all saw it from inside the house, no lightning or thunder here, just Pt Cloudy and mild. Was the meteorite very bright as it traveled across the skies
Member Since: 25 août 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
536. pottery 02:15 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting Bordonaro:

The Polish government was probably under pressure from their own superiors on board the plane to land the plane and not divert to another airport. It appears to just be a tragic accident, their pilots were probably very good pilots, but misjudged the situation.


Good post. Also, with that level of Passengers on board, there would have been all kinds of issues with Meeting Parties, Security, Transport arrangements etc.
The Crew made a decision, and it went bad.
We do NOT know as yet, what exactly happened to cause the crash. And maybe never will.
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703
537. presslord 02:16 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting pottery:
Saw an incredible Meteorite this evening, south-west to north-east.
Left a trail of scarlet stuff behind and I thought at the time "...I should be able to HEAR that!
Pretty sight.


About 30-45 minutes ago we had a bright flash here in Arlington, TX. We all saw it from inside the house, no lightning or thunder here, just Pt Cloudy and mild. Was the meteorite very bright as it traveled across the skies
Action: Quote | Ignore User

Pat...maybe you oughta check on the ISS...
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538. SQUAWK 02:17 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
Well..if one had a lil Knowledge one would never land short of a carrier in my estiamte..LOL

And Landing Middle Cable is preferred,but thats why one hits full Power at Contact,..

But you knew that?
Didnt,ya?

LOL


There are people who make things happen, there are people who watch things happen, and there are people who wonder what happened. To be successful, you need to be a person who makes things happen.
James A. Lovell


Ramp strikes are not usually survived, bolters normally get to try it again.
Member Since: 9 décembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497
540. TampaSpin 02:18 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
I cannot believe what i have seen posted tonite from someone that is suppose to be a big time humanity person. WOW! Very disappointing to see the thinking and position of someone that is suppose to care so much about human life.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
541. Patrap 02:19 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting SQUAWK:


Ramp strikes are not usually survived, bolters normally get to try it again.



"U betcha"..
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
542. pottery 02:19 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting Bordonaro:


About 30-45 minutes ago we had a bright flash here in Arlington, TX. We all saw it from inside the house, no lightning or thunder here, just Pt Cloudy and mild. Was the meteorite very bright as it traveled across the skies


Interesting. Not particularly bright. Would not have noticed it if I was not sitting outside on a lounger. This was about 2 hrs ago, so big time diff. too.
Maybe, 'they' are comin' in tonight! From beyond......
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543. presslord 02:20 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
...moon phase check, please...
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544. pottery 02:21 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting Randrewx:
NO MORE PORTLIGHT SPONSORSHIP efforts from me!


Sounds smart to me.



you guys are over-reacting here...
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20703
545. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 02:21 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting TampaSpin:
515. Drakoen 1:55 AM GMT on April 12, 2010
Quoting presslord:
Q "How far do you think we can fly in the fog?"

A "All the way to the crash site..."


lol?



We are making jokes and laughing about death. Are you all kidding. WOW!

better to laugh then cry
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40383
546. Patrap 02:22 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Cargo Transfers Continue From Leonardo to Station
Sun, 11 Apr 2010 09:57:49 PM EDT

The crew of space shuttle Discovery awoke at 9:51 p.m. EDT to “Because We Believe” by Andrea Bocelli for Commander Alan Poindexter.

The space station crew will focus on transferring items from the Leonardo Multi Purpose Logistics Module to the International Space Station, while Discovery’s crew enjoys some off duty time. Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency astronauts Naoko Yamazaki and Soichi Noguchi will talk to Japan’s Prime Minister at 6:41 a.m. and an English interpretation will be played on NASA Television at 8 a.m. The crews also will conduct interviews with reporters from ABC, MSNBC, FOX and KUSA TV in Denver. Late in the day, Rick Mastracchio and Clay Anderson will “camp out” in the Quest Airlock to rid their bodies of nitrogen in preparation for Tuesday’s third spacewalk.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
547. TampaSpin 02:22 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Quoting Randrewx:
NO MORE PORTLIGHT SPONSORSHIP efforts from me!


Sounds smart to me.



UNREAL!!! HOW DARE SOMEONE make laughs and jokes about such a horrible thing that killed 96 lives because of human error.

I would hope that Dr. Masters would end all sponsorship to such thinking and post as well.
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548. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 02:24 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
judge not least you be judged
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40383
549. Drakoen 02:24 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
Melodramatic much? Presslord was just being Presslord adding some levity to the blog; you can't ask for much more than that.
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
550. kimoskee 02:25 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
All this discussion on plane crashes reminds me of the American Airlines flight that landed half way down the runway and crashed December 2009 in Kingston, Jamaica. Thank God no one died. Still haven't heard a word about a "final report" on the incident.

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/american-airlines-flight-311-overshoots-runway-jamaica-dozens/story?id=94 08329

Member Since: 17 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 670
551. HURRICANECAT5 02:27 GMT le 12 avril 2010    
ARE THE CARRIBBEAN WATERS REALLY COOLING?
Member Since: 16 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 134

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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