Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupts
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupted Wednesday, sending a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The ash cloud has caused a dramatic interruption of air traffic over much of northern Europe today, and this disruption will spread southwards and eastwards over the next day as the ash cloud gradually spreads and disperses (Figure 2.)
Figure 1. Ash plume from Eyjafjallajokull Volcano over the North Atlantic at 11:35 UTC April 15, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Forecast extent of the ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland at 12 UTC (8 am EDT) and 00 UTC tonight (8 pm EDT.) The red colors show the extent between the surface and 20,000', the green colors between 20,000 - 35,000', and the blue line between 35,000 - 55,000'. Commercial jetliners typically cruise at 35,000'. Image credit: UKMET Office.
Iceland volcano not likely to significantly affect the climate or weather
Volcanic eruptions are capable of significantly cooling the climate for 1 - 2 years after a major eruption spews sulfur dioxide gas forcefully enough so that it reaches the stratosphere. Once in the stratosphere, the gas reacts to form highly reflective sulfuric acid droplets mixed with water (sulfate aerosol particles). Our volcanoes and climate page covers the topic in more detail. Let's examine recent volcanic eruptions that have had a significant cooling effect on the climate. In the past 200 years, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (June 1991), El Chichon (Mexico, 1982), Mt. Agung (Indonesia, 1963), Santa Maria (Guatemala, 1902) Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883), and Tambora (1815) all created noticeable cooling. The Mt. Pinatubo and El Chichon eruptions caused a greater than 10% drop in sunlight reaching the surface. The eruption of Tambora in 1815 had an even greater impact, triggering the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. You'll notice from the list of eruptions above that all of these climate-cooling events were from volcanoes in the tropics. Above the tropics, the stratosphere's circulation features rising air, which pulls the sulfur-containing volcanic aerosols high into the stratosphere. Upper-level winds in the stratosphere tend to flow from the Equator to the poles, so sulfur aerosols from equatorial eruptions get spread out over both hemispheres. These aerosol particles take a year or two to settle back down to earth, since there is no rain in the stratosphere to help remove them. However, if a major volcanic eruption occurs in the mid-latitudes or polar regions, the circulation of the stratosphere in those regions generally features pole-ward-flowing, sinking air, and the volcanic aerosol particles are not able to penetrate high in the stratosphere or get spread out around the entire globe.
There have been at least two exceptions to the tropics-only rule. Realclimate.org discusses the eruption of the Laki volcano in Iceland, between 1783-1784. The eruption was probably not able to inject much sulfur into the stratosphere. However, since the eruption was sustained for so long, significantly elevated sulfur concentrations were seen in the lower atmosphere over much of the Atlantic and European regions, which had a pronounced cooling effect on the region.
scienceblog.com has an interesting article about the largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century--the 1912 eruption of Alaska's Mt. Novarupta, located in the same chain of volcanoes as Mt. Redoubt. According to a NASA computer model, Novarupta's climate-cooling aerosols stayed north of 30°N latitude, and did not cause global cooling. However, the model indicates that the eruption may have indirectly weakened India's summer monsoon, producing an abnormally warm and dry summer over northern India.
It does not appear that the current eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland was large enough to alter the atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere and cause a change in the late spring/early summer weather patterns. A series of several major eruptions over the next few weeks would be required for that to happen. The volcano is also too far north for the cooling effect of its ash cloud to affect the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the coming hurricane season. However, the ash could should bring spectacular sunsets to Europe over the next week, and to North America by sometime next week, as the jet stream wraps the ash cloud eastwards across the Northern Hemisphere.
Portlight aid ship nears Haiti
Portlight.org continues to work hard to get food and medical supplies into the earthquake zone in Haiti. Their latest effort is a shipment of 30,000 pounds of rice and 20,000 pounds of other supplies, mostly medical equipment, that has been loaded onto the schooner Halie and Mathew. The schooner is expected to land in Haiti today to deliver the supplies. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.
Figure 2. Relief supplies for Haiti earthquake victims being loaded onto the schooner Halie and Mathew.
Paul Timmons (Presslord) and Pat Pearson (Patrap) of Portlight will on the Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour Link. The hosts are wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche. The show airs today, Thursday, April 15, at 4pm Eastern.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Kitesurfer injured in Fay's gusts out of hospital
The Long Ranger shows the IMPRESSIVE display of nino3.4 prowess by the Eurosip model ( see ecmwf site). The most impressive aspect of the model is it forecasted the sharp up, then down, in the nino! The CFS had a much gentler slope, suggesting the nino would continue well into the summer. It isnt saying that now, but the point is the Eurosip blew it out of the water. You can go back to the CFS site and look at the difference between the forecast from November on both, and you will see what I mean.
by joe
Hey whats up
We're getting rain,but only isolated showers,it isn't widespread.
Andrew's incredibly violent winds sliced this piece plywood through the trunk of a Palm tree in Homestead, Florida.
And many more...Link
what is that???
Link
Ash forecast with upper winds, ending on the 17th april.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/sootinsnow/PDF_Documents/Impurities%20in%20Snow(Review).pdf
On the flip side it also mentions thick dust layers providing insulation to ice and snow.
Link
I imagine it did look like a big tornado. Charley was a 4! Rita was a 3 and she shredded mobile homes and a few other structures and supposedly had no tornadoes. But it was nothing like Andrews damage. Wow! I do agree the worst part of a hurricane is the storm surge. But don't discount the wind damage. I wouldn't want to be outside in any hurricane. Especially a major one.
Volcanic eruption of Icelandic volcano: Eyjafjallajokul.
Click here for a map detailing the unavailable airspace.
No IFR clearances will be issued that penetrate contaminated airspace.
Aircraft operators planning to enter closed airspace should be prepared to divert to an alternate destination.
Click here for a map of the forecast ash cloud issued:15-1200 UTC
The next teleconference will be held at 1830UTC.
Telephone number: +32.2.289.5396
Security code: 1061#
(200 lines available)
Aircraft Operators are strongly recommended to closely monitor all relevant Notams / Volcanic Ash Sigmets.
map detailing the unavailable airspace.
map of the forecast ash cloud issued:15-1200 UTC
ok
thanks
Outside in a cat 5 ummmm... if it is anything more than a stiff breeze you guys can have it, I will not fight you for the honor. I have already learned that lesson, and it did not even take a full blown cat five to do so.
It is the no see ums that always get you, I remember (quite well)sitting in my folks place as a kid when Alicia hit back in the 80's. One minute the roof was their, the next a descending tornado decided to peel the roof off the place. Had it dropped about 50 feet closer we probably would not have made it. For the rest of the ride, you had a choice of either standing downstairs in the flooded first floor or sitting upstairs in the skyview rooms. Pretty surreal looking through your bedroom ceiling and seeing the stars during the eye.
Heavy cloud, occasional thunder, scattered rainfall (some heavy but brief)
More to come.
Thanks, Keeper!! Spot on, man!
(AFP) – 1 hour ago
ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE — US President Barack Obama is keeping his plans to fly to Poland for the funeral of president Lech Kaczynski despite a huge volcanic ash cloud over northern Europe, the White House said Thursday.
"It's something that we are keeping an eye on," White House spokesman Bill Burton told reporters aboard the presidential jet Air Force One, which was carrying Obama to Florida for a speech.
"Right now our schedule is still on. We have every intention of making it to Poland," Burton added.
He said he had spoken with US Air Force officials monitoring the situation in Iceland, where a violent volcanic eruption spewed clouds of thick ash into the air and disrupting air traffic across northern Europe.
"They felt confident that we'll be able to make that trip, but (the ash) is something we are watching and obviously cognizant of," Burton said of his talks with air force officials.
The fallout from the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in southeast Iceland has grounded thousands of flights as European countries imposed the biggest airspace closure since the September 11, 2001 attacks.
Obama is scheduled to leave for Krakow, Poland on Saturday to attend the funeral the next day of Kaczynski and his wife Maria, killed in a plane crash in Russia which also took the lives of dozens of other top Polish officials.
Copyright © 2010 AFP. All rights reserved.
Some good new pictures of Eijaf, mixed with old ones.
Follow the volcano discussion, if you like, on the eruption's blog
Edited: Fascinating video of the eruption.
If they had him on more, it would be nice to watch, but youll only find him when serious storms and events are happening & if that is happening im surely not going to be watching the TWC.
It's going to be the same sad behind news, with them using old data and observations.
by Raleigh
Most long range forecasters monitor sea surface temperature anomalies when thinking through their seasonal forecasts. Coming up on April 30th, I will release my summer and hurricane forecasts for this coming year. I have dropped some hints in the last month on how the warm Atlantic and weakening El Nino may favor an active Atlantic hurricane season. I wanted to take just a second and observe the recent sea surface temperature anomalies and how they are shaping up this spring.
Attached below is the latest SST anomaly map. The main thing to look at here, if you are interested in the upcoming hurricane season, is the very warm Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Caribbean Sea. NCEP monitors the temperature anomalies in this region on a monthly basis with an index called the Tropical North Atlantic Index (TNA). The value for this index last March was +1.32C, meaning this region on average was 1.32C above normal. This is the highest March value for this index ever, following up the highest value for the index ever in February and we will likely break the record for April as well. Now a very warm Atlantic in the Spring does not necessarily mean that it will stay very warm during the hurricane season, nor does even a very warm Atlantic mean that we will have a very active hurricane season. Ultimately the weather pattern will drive the hurricane tracks and activity
However, statistically we can see a few things. The top 18 years where the Feb-April TNA averaged 0.24C or higher, keep in mind this year will likely average around 1.2C or higher, the following Aug-October period was positive in 16 out of the 18 years. The one year that saw a complete reversal was 1970. The other year that saw a reversal though not as dramatic was 1983. So if you go by statistics we have an 8 in 9 chance of seeing the main development region averaging above normal during this hurricane season. Without going too far down the road and thus ruining my hurricane forecast, I will say that the top 18 seasons which feature an August-October TNA of 0.2 or higher, the average number of storms for those season was 13.4, compared with the 62 year average of 10.8. Delving deeper, of those 18 years, 6 featured an August-October El Nino by MEI standards, those 6 years averaged 9.8 named storms, however the 12 years that did not, (which I expect this year to mimic), averaged 15.25 named storms.
So the moral of all this is that with trends continuing for a warm Atlantic and a weakening El Nino, we could be facing an active hurricane season. On April 30th, I will release my forecast for the number of storms, and my expected landfall danger zones, which will likely be of most interest.
Rita was BAD. Although only a Cat-3 at landfall, Rita was a Cat-5 at one point and a powerful storm at that.
Katrina got all the coverage for damage to the Louisiana and Mississippi coast. Forgotten is that the town of Cameron, Louisiana was completely wiped off the map by Rita's storm surge.
Rita spun off a lot of tornadoes. From about 12:00am to 3:00am... you could hear another tornado pass nearby about every 10-15 minutes. Those that think you can't hear tornados during the eye wall of a hurricane, let me assure you that we did.
Rita caused devestation all the way to 200 miles inland. That was a storm. Regarding winds and intensity, Ike was nothing in comparisson.
You did get lucky with Rita, upon her land falling she ingested a lot of dry air and lots a lot of convection, especially on the back side of the storm.
Article from MSNBC below in link:
Link
NOBODY got lucky with Rita. That's what I try not to do. The pissin' contest about my storm was worse than yours. I have no idea how any storm I didn't experience treated anyone who did. I wasn't there. I'm sure they all sucked. That has been my experience.
I was just referring that before it ingested the dry air, it was a lot more powerful, I know people lot's everything and people lots there lives, but it could have been a lot worse. Could have been a strong cat 4 or 5.
Yeah. You're right. That wouldve been worse. Sorry. Just been a lot of posts making little of very strong storms or rather standing in them. I'm just snippy. My bad. :) Rita was awful but she didn't do what Andrew did.
With bad situations I try to at least find something good about the event, try to stay positive. You see so much negative things these days, pulling the positive out of the negative feels better than being totally negative about the whole situation.
I know they can be beneficial. Just wish they could be more gentle about it. :)
That's a good attitude. :) And I guess on the positive side, we do live in a better neighborhood thanks to Rita. Lol.
Eyjafjallajokull volcano, Iceland
A significant eruption is continuing at Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland. Ash emissions are reaching a height of 33,000 ft. Emissions from the volcano are drifting across the UK, and are heading for central and eastern Europe. Ash has already reached as far south as Italy. Ash emissions remain over Britain with only Northern Ireland and the western parts of Ireland and Scotland clear.
Rita was different. My mother-in-law stayed with us in Beaumont for Ike (having evac'd N.O. from Katrina). She was in Cameron, La when Hurricane Audrey came through. My wife had stayed in Biloxi for Hurricane Elena. They both said that Rita was worse.
Rita had unpredictable winds, spun off a lot of tornadoes and caused a large amount of wind damage, mainly due to very high gusts and wind variability. There were large trees down all the way to 200+ miles inland.
I knew a man that just bought 40 heavily wooded acres (hardwoods) in Kirbyville, Tx. to build his house on. He sold the land after Rita knocked down nearly 90% of the trees. Some neighborhoods around mine averaged 2 trees in the house. Not on the roof, but through the roof or outer walls. For every house that had none, some other house had 4 trees in it.
There were no athiests in Beaumont, Texas the night Rita came through.
I love hearing stories about people's moments through intense hurricanes. You always hear eye opening weird things that happen.
Yea, but in size and stormsuge which are the most devastating part of a Hurricane. Ike outmatches Rita. However, both resulted in terrible damage and loss of life so its not really prudent to argue.
"Jamaica
Hurricane Gilbert produced a 19 ft storm surge and brought over 700 mm (27 inches) of rain in the mountainous areas of Jamaica, causing inland flash flooding. About 45 people died, and one child was born. Gilbert was the most severe hurricane to hit Jamaica since Hurricane Charlie in 1951.[11] The storm left $4 billion (1988 USD) in damage. Gilbert also destroyed crops, buildings, houses and roads and even turned small aircraft into shambles.
Cayman Islands
Gilbert passed 30 miles (48 km) to the south of the Cayman Islands, with a gust of 157 mph (253 km/h) reported early on September 13. However, the islands largely escaped the hurricane's wrath due to Gilbert's rather quick forward motion, and the deepness of the water surrounding the islands limited the height of the storm surge to 5 ft (1.5 m) Nevertheless, there was very severe damage to crops, trees and pastures, and a number of private homes were ruined." -extract from wikipedia
Jamaica-
Cayman-
Gilbert was a bad one too, made land fall in Jamaica, the Yucatan and Mexico.
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