Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupts
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:11 GMT le 15 avril 2010 +2
The Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupted Wednesday, sending a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The ash cloud has caused a dramatic interruption of air traffic over much of northern Europe today, and this disruption will spread southwards and eastwards over the next day as the ash cloud gradually spreads and disperses (Figure 2.)


Figure 1. Ash plume from Eyjafjallajokull Volcano over the North Atlantic at 11:35 UTC April 15, 2010. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Forecast extent of the ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland at 12 UTC (8 am EDT) and 00 UTC tonight (8 pm EDT.) The red colors show the extent between the surface and 20,000', the green colors between 20,000 - 35,000', and the blue line between 35,000 - 55,000'. Commercial jetliners typically cruise at 35,000'. Image credit: UKMET Office.

Iceland volcano not likely to significantly affect the climate or weather
Volcanic eruptions are capable of significantly cooling the climate for 1 - 2 years after a major eruption spews sulfur dioxide gas forcefully enough so that it reaches the stratosphere. Once in the stratosphere, the gas reacts to form highly reflective sulfuric acid droplets mixed with water (sulfate aerosol particles). Our volcanoes and climate page covers the topic in more detail. Let's examine recent volcanic eruptions that have had a significant cooling effect on the climate. In the past 200 years, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (June 1991), El Chichon (Mexico, 1982), Mt. Agung (Indonesia, 1963), Santa Maria (Guatemala, 1902) Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883), and Tambora (1815) all created noticeable cooling. The Mt. Pinatubo and El Chichon eruptions caused a greater than 10% drop in sunlight reaching the surface. The eruption of Tambora in 1815 had an even greater impact, triggering the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. You'll notice from the list of eruptions above that all of these climate-cooling events were from volcanoes in the tropics. Above the tropics, the stratosphere's circulation features rising air, which pulls the sulfur-containing volcanic aerosols high into the stratosphere. Upper-level winds in the stratosphere tend to flow from the Equator to the poles, so sulfur aerosols from equatorial eruptions get spread out over both hemispheres. These aerosol particles take a year or two to settle back down to earth, since there is no rain in the stratosphere to help remove them. However, if a major volcanic eruption occurs in the mid-latitudes or polar regions, the circulation of the stratosphere in those regions generally features pole-ward-flowing, sinking air, and the volcanic aerosol particles are not able to penetrate high in the stratosphere or get spread out around the entire globe.

There have been at least two exceptions to the tropics-only rule. Realclimate.org discusses the eruption of the Laki volcano in Iceland, between 1783-1784. The eruption was probably not able to inject much sulfur into the stratosphere. However, since the eruption was sustained for so long, significantly elevated sulfur concentrations were seen in the lower atmosphere over much of the Atlantic and European regions, which had a pronounced cooling effect on the region.

scienceblog.com has an interesting article about the largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century--the 1912 eruption of Alaska's Mt. Novarupta, located in the same chain of volcanoes as Mt. Redoubt. According to a NASA computer model, Novarupta's climate-cooling aerosols stayed north of 30°N latitude, and did not cause global cooling. However, the model indicates that the eruption may have indirectly weakened India's summer monsoon, producing an abnormally warm and dry summer over northern India.

It does not appear that the current eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland was large enough to alter the atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere and cause a change in the late spring/early summer weather patterns. A series of several major eruptions over the next few weeks would be required for that to happen. The volcano is also too far north for the cooling effect of its ash cloud to affect the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the coming hurricane season. However, the ash could should bring spectacular sunsets to Europe over the next week, and to North America by sometime next week, as the jet stream wraps the ash cloud eastwards across the Northern Hemisphere.

Portlight aid ship nears Haiti
Portlight.org continues to work hard to get food and medical supplies into the earthquake zone in Haiti. Their latest effort is a shipment of 30,000 pounds of rice and 20,000 pounds of other supplies, mostly medical equipment, that has been loaded onto the schooner Halie and Mathew. The schooner is expected to land in Haiti today to deliver the supplies. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. Relief supplies for Haiti earthquake victims being loaded onto the schooner Halie and Mathew.

Paul Timmons (Presslord) and Pat Pearson (Patrap) of Portlight will on the Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour Link. The hosts are wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche. The show airs today, Thursday, April 15, at 4pm Eastern.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Volcano
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201. weatherwatcher12 20:41 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Hurricane Gilbert's impact in the Caribbean:

"Jamaica
Hurricane Gilbert produced a 19 ft storm surge and brought over 700 mm (27 inches) of rain in the mountainous areas of Jamaica, causing inland flash flooding. About 45 people died, and one child was born. Gilbert was the most severe hurricane to hit Jamaica since Hurricane Charlie in 1951.[11] The storm left $4 billion (1988 USD) in damage. Gilbert also destroyed crops, buildings, houses and roads and even turned small aircraft into shambles.

Cayman Islands
Gilbert passed 30 miles (48 km) to the south of the Cayman Islands, with a gust of 157 mph (253 km/h) reported early on September 13. However, the islands largely escaped the hurricane's wrath due to Gilbert's rather quick forward motion, and the deepness of the water surrounding the islands limited the height of the storm surge to 5 ft (1.5 m) Nevertheless, there was very severe damage to crops, trees and pastures, and a number of private homes were ruined." -extract from wikipedia

Jamaica-

Cayman-

Gilbert was a bad one too, made land fall in Jamaica, the Yucatan and Mexico.
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202. barbamz 20:47 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
BBC-Report:
Most restrictions on UK airspace will stay in place until 1300 BST on Friday because of ash from a volcano in Iceland, air traffic controllers say.

But some flights may be allowed after 0100 BST from Northern Ireland and several airports in Scotland.

The volcanic eruption has caused flight cancellations across Europe amid fears the ash could cause engine failures.

Air traffic control service (Nats) said its next review would be at 0230 BST but the situation was "not improving".

More:

UK extends air restrictions after Icelandic eruption
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203. homelesswanderer 20:55 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting TexasGulf:
What made Rita particularly bad was the high wind gusts. Ike had fairly consistant wind speeds, so although Ike had a devestating storm surge, it didn't cause the wind damage like Rita did. In fact, I slept through the last 1/2 of Ike without even a worry about it.

Rita was different. My mother-in-law stayed with us in Beaumont for Ike (having evac'd N.O. from Katrina). She was in Cameron, La when Hurricane Audrey came through. My wife had stayed in Biloxi for Hurricane Elena. They both said that Rita was worse.

Rita had unpredictable winds, spun offs a lot of tornadoe and caused a large amount of wind damage, mainly due to very high gusts and wind variability. There were large trees down all the way to 200+ miles inland.

I knew a man that just bought 40 heavily wooded acres (hardwoods) in Kirbyville, Tx. to build his house on. He sold the land after Rita knocked down nearly 90% of the trees. Some neighborhoods around mine averaged 2 trees in the house. Not on the roof, but through the roof or outer walls. For every house that had none, some other house had 4 trees in it.

There were no athiests in Beaumont, Texas the night Rita came through.



My bad I had read somewhere she produced no tornadoes. Which didn't seem right to me either. Coulda swore it was in the TCR on Rita. But I guess not. As for all the other stuff, I know how bad she was. And tornadoes not withstanding, just her winds did a job on east Tx. Would say SE TX but like you said the destruction went way inland. But what I saw driving home ALL of the wind damage,trees, etc. were facing in the same direction almost due south. It was the strangest thing. Like a giant foot had stepped on the land laying everything down. It was a site to see. But I'd rather not see it again.

And yes Rita was worse than Ike wind wise here. But someone posted a picture of the side of a brick house where a tree had gone through. Wall and all. After Ike. So I dunno what Ike was like further to our west.
Anyway you're preaching to the choir here. I'm the crazy tree lady who comes on here and tells everyone to watch their trees and RUN! :)
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204. atmoaggie 20:58 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting StormChaser81:
You did get lucky with Rita, upon her land falling she ingested a lot of dry air and lots a lot of convection, especially on the back side of the storm.


Ummm, actually, that dry air tends to accelerate downbursts associated with singularly high areas of convection over that of an all-moist system. Those gusts *can* approach 160% of the sustained winds, outside of tornadoes. A more "healthy" TC environment will usually yield gusts of closer to %120 of the sustained winds. Also aids in the propensity for downbursts to occur at all.

References include work by Keith Blackwell and Mark Powell.

Dry air isn't always a good thing...unless it happens a day or three ahead of landfall and really ruins a TC's environment.
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205. stormpetrol 20:59 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Finally some decent rain here in Grand Cayman we needed it badly.
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206. NRAamy 21:00 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Let's examine recent volcanic eruptions that have had a significant cooling effect on the climate. In the past 200 years, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (June 1991), El Chichon (Mexico, 1982), Mt. Agung (Indonesia, 1963), Santa Maria (Guatemala, 1902) Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883), and Tambora (1815) all created noticeable cooling.


nothing from Mt. St. Helens?
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207. atmoaggie 21:01 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Rita's nadoes that were actually tracked and/or reported (very hard to do in eyewall wind-areas).

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208. atmoaggie 21:04 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Andrew's incredibly violent winds sliced this piece plywood through the trunk of a Palm tree in Homestead, Florida.

And many more...Link


That reminds of a pic someone I know took in Slidell, LA one day after Katrina.

A butter knife embedded 2/3rds into a telephone pole about 3 feet above ground level a few houses down from his missing one. Right at the lake, too.
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209. xcool 21:04 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
hot Summer come soon
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210. Patrap 21:07 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
HurricaneChaseExtrem

This video is the first in a series of videos from Slidell, Louisiana which is situated on the northeast shore of Lake Pontchartrain. This is located North (inland) of New Orleans in St. Tammany Parish. This video was taken 4 weeks post storm. Note the first half focuses on the washed up debris on the North side of Lake Pontchartrain near Slidell.


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211. Patrap 21:11 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Note the Storm Surge rise around this Vehicle in Slidell during Katrina..

Bad Idea..

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212. Bordonaro 21:11 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Except for a 5.2 Mw quake east of Australia and two aftershocks of 4.5 and 4.8Mw earlier today from the original 7.2Mw MX quake, the tectonic plates have been quiet today.
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213. homelesswanderer 21:15 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Hurricane Gilbert's impact in the Caribbean.

Wow. Hadn't seen that before. Goes to show they can do damage whether they make landfall or not.

Atmo

Yeah I just read that she produced a lot of tornadoes. And what you mentioned about the downbursts. I didn't know that either. I had seen a video from one of those storm chasers they had on discovery channel. Anyway, he set up equipment in the path of Jeanne I think it was, and discovered that what many had thought were tornadoes were actually some kind of winds from within the hurricane. I don't know if its the same thing you mentioned. I remember it surprised me that they didn't know that until 2004.
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214. homelesswanderer 21:18 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting atmoaggie:

That reminds of a pic someone I know took in Slidell, LA one day after Katrina.

A butter knife embedded 2/3rds into a telephone pole about 3 feet above ground level a few houses down from his missing one. Right at the lake, too.


There's a scary thought. That would definitely qualify for the weird things you see after a hurricane.
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215. atmoaggie 21:19 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
Note the Storm Surge rise around this Vehicle in Slidell during Katrina..

Bad Idea..


At least they got the right state in that one...lol.

Though, just as SE TX looks more like Louisiana (but with roads that have been worked on in the last 60 years), Slidell does resemble MS more than LA, in some ways.
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216. NRAamy 21:21 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
nuthin' on Mt. St. Helens?

:(


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217. homelesswanderer 21:24 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
Note the Storm Surge rise around this Vehicle in Slidell during Katrina..

Bad Idea..


Nuff said
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218. superpete 21:27 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Post 201-weatherwatcher12. Your posted image from Cayman was the old Cayman Diving Lodge at East End.It survived Gilbert, but not Ivan in 2004.Storm surge & wind from Ivan left but a few walls standing.
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219. atmoaggie 21:28 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting homelesswanderer:


There's a scary thought. That would definitely qualify for the weird things you see after a hurricane.

I hope that somewhere in Oz's ambitions, as I have been seeing on here, he recognizes that all sorts of "harmless" things become potentially deadly missiles in a major TC. I expect he does and has something more substantial than a power pole or tree to shield himself with.
(hmmm, maybe he should build a kevlar human-sized turtle shell)
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220. Bordonaro 21:33 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting atmoaggie:

I hope that somewhere in Oz's ambitions, as I have been seeing on here, he recognizes that all sorts of "harmless" things become potentially deadly missiles in a major TC. I expect he does and has something more substantial than a power pole or tree to shield himself with.
(hmmm, maybe he should build a kevlar human-sized turtle shell)


How about a Tornado Shelter,the 1/4" thick steel model, modified with 2" Kevlar windows bolted down into concrete away from the storm surge?
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221. atmoaggie 21:35 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting homelesswanderer:


There's a scary thought. That would definitely qualify for the weird things you see after a hurricane.

Right. Just remembered the pic in my mind's eye... The handle was bent around to flow in the same direction as the wind that sent the knife into the pole, too.

Note that I said the handle was bent (almost a full 180 degrees), not the blade. The handle of a butter knife. Even with the cheapest non-hollow one made, that is a feat.
(Though, maybe it was hit by other debris...like maybe a spoon ;-)
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222. weatherwatcher12 21:36 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting superpete:
Post 201-weatherwatcher12. Your posted image from Cayman was the old Cayman Diving Lodge at East End.It survived Gilbert, but not Ivan in 2004.Storm surge & wind from Ivan left but a few walls standing.

I can imagine. Ivan was extreme in Cayman and Jamaica.
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223. Stormchaser2007 21:37 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Nino region 3.4 down to .6 (Is that considered neutral?)

Ninos 1 and 2 are skyrocketing due to the last of the warm sub-surface waters beginning to reach the surface.
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224. Drakoen 21:39 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
SOI continues to soar:

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225. atmoaggie 21:42 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:
SOI continues to soar:


Better watch it, SOI. If you get ash in your engines, you'll come crashing back down.
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226. Drakoen 21:44 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting atmoaggie:

Better watch it, SOI. If you get ash in your engines, you'll come crashing back down.


Ash is way too far north to affect it
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227. Drakoen 21:44 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Cool subsurface anomalies gaining strength and warm anomalies weakening:

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228. Stormchaser2007 21:45 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Brandy new.

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229. AstroHurricane001 21:45 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
This "thing" in the Northern North Atlantic looks almost...subtropical.

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230. atmoaggie 21:48 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:


Ash is way too far north to affect it

That was purely sarcasm...(and, frankly, I am surprised you responded)
;-)
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231. Stormchaser2007 21:49 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
EUROSIP really crashes the El nino
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232. Drakoen 21:49 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Brandy new.



Wow. The consensus looks like a warm biased ENSO at least among the dynamic and statistical computer forecast models.
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233. AstroHurricane001 21:49 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting NRAamy:
nuthin' on Mt. St. Helens?

:(




I think the St. Helens eruption would have been too small to cause any noticeable cooling. Although it did emit a small amount of SO2 and CO2.
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234. Drakoen 21:50 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting atmoaggie:

That was purely sarcasm...(and, frankly, I am surprised you responded)
;-)


I guess i'm just not up to par with the sarcasm as I usually am. How will I cope...
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235. NRAamy 21:52 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
thanks, Astro!
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236. Patrap 21:53 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
The first Vid is of Slidell atmo,..and its a 3 part series that ALSO goes thru Mississippi as well.

The Title isnt for the one Video.
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237. wunderkidcayman 21:53 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
hey guys we got rain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! but we need more.
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238. Stormchaser2007 21:54 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Last but not least, here's IRI's ENSO probability chart.


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239. Tropicsweatherpr 21:56 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Nino region 3.4 down to .6 (Is that considered neutral?)

Ninos 1 and 2 are skyrocketing due to the last of the warm sub-surface waters beginning to reach the surface.


Neutral is between +0.5C and -0.5C
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240. Snowlover123 21:57 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
This "thing" in the Northern North Atlantic looks almost...subtropical.



Where is this "thing?"

If it is attached to that front, it is considered "extratropical" by the National Hurricane Center.

It really doesn't look like Subtropical Storm Andrea or Laura, and if it is attached to the front, it is considered "extratropical." Glad if I could help!
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241. Stormchaser2007 21:57 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Neutral is between +0.5C and -0.5C


Ah, thanks.

That completely escaped me.
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242. barbamz 22:00 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
233. Mt. St. Helens. As Dr. M. said in his blog above about El Chichon (Mexico, 1982)

Credit: http://www.geus.dk/geuspage-dk.htm?http://www.geus.dk/publications/geo-nyt-geus/gi004_01.htm
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243. Snowlover123 22:03 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:
SOI continues to soar:



Although right now it's soaring, the long term trend is down.
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244. PcolaDan 22:03 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting NRAamy:
nuthin' on Mt. St. Helens?

:(




I was stationed in Minot, ND when Mount St. Helens blew. We all watched the ash cloud move in and then cover us, literally. Street lights came on, it got fairly dark, and the ash covered everything lightly. We were told to stay inside (oops). to NOT wipe the ash off anything, but to wash it off with a hose, and to try not to drive until the streets could be washed down. There was a run on car air filters too.
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245. NRAamy 22:04 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
barbamz....thank you for the graph!!!!
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246. hurricanealley 22:04 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
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247. barbamz 22:06 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
245. Welcome. Was glad to find it just by chance.
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248. NRAamy 22:07 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
dashboard cow man....do you have any photos?

:)
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249. PcolaDan 22:11 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting NRAamy:
dashboard cow man....do you have any photos?

:)


Unfortunately I didn't have a camera in 1980. I was a whole E3 back then with a family. Money was scarce. And I was young and dumb then too. ;)
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250. stormpetrol 22:12 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I can imagine. Ivan was extreme in Cayman and Jamaica.

I was here in Grand Cayman for both Gilbert 88 and Ivan 2004, with Gilbert everything was practically back to normal within 1-2 weeks the matter of days for some, with Ivan well some are still suffering though if you didn't know the Island you might wonder what Hurricane hit in 2004, to me Gilbert was just a strong summer squall compared to Ivan. In fact I think Michelle 2001, Mitch 1998 and Wilma 2005 probably did more damage to the Island than Gilbert if memory serves me correctly, though I could be wrong.
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251. SailorsMom 22:12 GMT le 15 avril 2010    
Update on the Portlight Food Shipment to Haiti - The Schooner Halie & Matthew is currently in Jamaica for urgent repairs. No scheduled date of departure for Haiti has been released. Crew is well, but significant repairs are required.

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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