Flooding from record rains kills 11 in Tennessee; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:52 GMT le 03 mai 2010

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Nashville, Tennessee remains virtually paralyzed this morning thanks to that city's heaviest recorded 1-day and 2-day rainfall in its history. A remarkable 7.25" of rain fell on the city Sunday, breaking the record for most rain in a single day (previously 6.60", set September 13, 1979.) Nashville's third greatest day of rainfall on record occurred Saturday, when 6.32" fell. Nashville also eclipsed its greatest 6-hour and 12-hour rainfall events on record, with 5.57" and 7.20", respectively, falling on Sunday. And, remarkably, only 2 days into the month, May 2010 is already the wettest May on record for Nashville.

Rainfall records were smashed all across Tennessee and Kentucky, with amounts as high as 17.73" recorded at Camden, TN, and 17.02" at Brownsville, TN. According to Chris Burt, the author of the excellent book Extreme Weather, the 13.30" that fell on Camden in 24 hours just missed eclipsing the state's all-time 24-hour precipitation record, the 13.60" inches that fell on Milan on September 13, 1982. Jackson, Tennessee had its rainiest day in its 63-year weather history on Sunday, 7.93". Bowling Green, Kentucky had its heaviest 2-day precipitation event on record, 9.67". Records in Bowling Green go back to 1870. The University of Wisconsin GOES Satellite Blog has some excellent imagery showing the remarkable plume of tropical moisture that crossed over Central America from the Eastern Pacific and fed the record rains.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for May 1 - 2, 2010 from the Nashville, Tennessee radar. A large region of the Tennessee and Kentucky received over ten inches of rain, with many areas receiving more than fifteen inches.


Figure 2. Flood forecast for the Cumberland River in Nashville, Tennessee. Image credit: NOAA.

The record rains triggered massive flooding that has killed at least eleven people in Tennessee, with two missing. The Cumberland River in downtown Nashville has surged to a height of 51', which is 11' over flood height, and the highest level the river has reached since a flood control project was completed in the early 1960s. The river is expected to crest this afternoon at 11.5' above flood stage, bringing flood waters to a large portion of the downtown area. The mayor has ordered all schools, parks, and libraries closed today, and commuter bus and train services have also been suspended. Five people died in Nashville due to the flooding. The Harpeth River at Bellevue, Tennessee to its greatest flood height since record keeping began in 1921. The river had a depth of 2 feet early Saturday morning before the rains began, and was running at a depth of 29' early this morning, breaking the record of 24.34' set in 1948. (To check out the flood heights, use our wundermap for Nashville with the "USGS River" layer turned on.) The Duck River at Hurricane Mills reached 28.7' yesterday morning before its streamgage stopped operating, its 2nd greatest flood height since record keeping began in 1926 (record: 30.7' in 1948.)

The record rains were accompanied by a surge of very warm air that set record high temperature marks at 21 major airports across the Eastern U.S. on Saturday; 19 more records were set on Sunday. This is not surprising, since more moisture can evaporate into warmer air, making record-setting rainfall events more likely when record high temperatures are present.


Figure 3. A portable classroom building from a nearby high school floats past submerged cars on I-24 near Nashville, TN on May 1, 2010. One person died in the flooding in this region of I-24. Roughly 200 - 250 vehicles got submerged on this section of I-24, according to wunderphotographer laughingjester, who was a tow truck operator called in to clear out the stranded vehicles.

Funding issues to take 17 Tennessee streamgages offline
According to the USGS web site, seventeen Tennessee streamflow gages with records going back up to 85 years will stop collecting data on July 1 because of budget cuts. With up to thirteen people in Tennessee dying from flooding this weekend, now hardly seems to be the time to be skimping on monitoring river flow levels by taking 17 of Tennessee's 94 streamflow gages out of service. These gages are critical for proper issuance of flood warnings to people in harm's way. Furthermore, Tennessee and most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. can expect a much higher incidence of record flooding in coming decades. This will be driven by two factors: increased urban development causing faster run-off, and an increase in very heavy precipitation events due to global warming. Both factors have already contributed to significant increases in flooding events in recent decades over much of the U.S. According the landmark 2009 U.S. Climate Impact Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, "the amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased approximately 20 percent on average in the past century, and this trend is very likely to continue, with the largest increases in the wettest places." The USGS web site advertises that users who can contribute funding for the non-Federal share of costs to continue operation of these streamgages should contact Shannon Williams of the USGS Tennessee Water Science Center at 615-837-4755 or swilliam@usgs.gov. Tennessee is not the only state with streamgages at risk of closing down; fully 276 gages in 37 states have been shut down or will be shut down later this year (Figure 4.)


Figure 4. Streamgages that have been discontinued or are being considered for discontinuation or for conversion from continuous record discharge to stage-only stations. Funds for these 276 threatened streamgages are from the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies. For those streamgages that have already been discontinued, extensive efforts were made to find another funding source; however, when no funding was made available the streamgages had to be discontinued. For those streamgages at risk for discontinuation, the current funding source has indicated that it can no longer fund the streamgage. Efforts are currently underway to identify another funding source for the operation of these streamgages; however, if no funding is identified, then these streamgages will have to be discontinued also. If you have questions about specific streamgages, click on the state of concern on the USGS web page of threatened stream gages.

Oil spill update
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon has retreated from the coast, thanks to a slackening of the persistent onshore winds that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past week. Onshore winds of 10 - 15 knots will continue today, according to the latest NWS marine forecast, then shift to sideshore (out of the west) on Tuesday, as a cold front passes. Winds will then resume a weak onshore flow at 5 - 10 knots, Wednesday through Friday. These winds should cause only a slow transport of the oil slick towards the coast. I don't expect the spill will affect any land areas for the remainder of the week, with the possible exception of the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana and the Chandeleur Islands. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) show weak ocean currents affecting the region during the remainder of the week. These currents will not be strong enough to push any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days, so the Keys and South Florida are safe from oil for now.


Figure 5. Previous location and forecast location for tomorrow of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.

Jeff Masters

Flooding on I-24 (XMLP)
Flooding on I-24
Lick Creek Bridge (Wingman100)
God is cleaning out the creek and I think making a statement about cleanliness
Lick Creek Bridge
Removing the flood damaged cars and trucks. (laughingjester)
I am a wrecker driver for Martin's wrecker service. We were called to remove the vehicles that got caught in the flooding on interstate I 24 westbound near the Bell Road exit in Nashville Tennessee. Of course this is after the waters had subsided. It was roughly 200, 250 cars and trucks that got caught up in the flood. The debris to left is actually the remnants of a portable classroom that floated alongside the interstate and eventually rolled over and disintegrated.
Removing the flood damaged cars and trucks.

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210. beell
Posted this last night on the previous blog-fwiw.

Did not spend a whole lot of time with this. The graph represents 6hr (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z) water temps reported by Buoy 42040. 64nm S of Dauphin Island, AL. This buoy is approx 32nm from the rig site at 10° true. Graph reads from right to left timewise. Three data points circled in red for reference.

Only one buoy. Draw your own conclusions, but it seems there was quite a bit of daily variability in the temps until April 30th.

That would place this buoy pretty much in the yellow zone on this chart on 04/30:


Photobucket

Direct Link to Graph

42040 Metrological Data-prev 45 days
Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16895
The TNA continues to be at very high record levels

Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30619
Quoting Chicklit:
BP stands for one thing now.
BIG POLLUTER


Truth hurts.
Did you come up with that yourself Patrick?


yeah i agree lol.. But I hope i dont c flooding here like in tennessee. O yeah i got oil on my mind like a lot of others do too.. Not to mention gas prices will probably go up.. Then Hurricane season is coming up soon! Not a good time to be in the south!
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206. kingy
the very fact that BP could get mixed up about whether or not they had stemmed the flow of oil is worrying. Why have the feds not simply seized ownership of the whole shabang ? BP are getting the bill anyway, but what do they know about anything other than drilling? The fact that most of this oil is out at sea and not yet plastered over the beaches has lulled the authorities into too much complacency.
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Not much Oil on the Google BP Logo Page

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Quoting Chicklit:
BP stands for one thing now.
BIG POLLUTER


Truth hurts.
Did you come up with that yourself Patrick?


Just now.

Almost saw a GE Bulb Flash in my monitor..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30619
Make a messy situation messy - think they are trying to "spin" the news?
Quoting Patrap:


That does not surprise me msgambler,as the BP guy sounded like he was reading,..well what he was told to read.

No word on any Crimping on the PC ,and the upper annular ram Guy is talking live on NBC here now..and no Luck as you say.
Im removing the Quantcast info.

And they gonna get a responce Im sure.
Quoting Patrap:
The cofferdams that cajunkid linked in eariler is our best bet.On site in 8 days with fair seas and weather.
Maybe 4-5 to get um down.

Ya think someone would be doing a real reality show here.

Pfftttt...

Folks,many of the best in America are working 24/7 right now,..and BP too.

But ya just gotta wonder who advises these folks. The waiver things are ridiculous at best,
BP stands for one thing now.


BIG POLLUTER
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Quoting Jeff9641:


If there is any remot possiblilty of that then it would happen over a small location. The gulf is warming very fast as a whole right now. Some bouys have seen a 3 degree rise since Saturday.

ok. and would burning the oil raise the SSTs?
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Pretty horrific, huh? I'm guessing you're smelling the sweet smell of crude? Oh wait, I mean the smell of sweet crude? At least the Saints won the SB. Louisiana just can't seem to catch a break!


Smelled it last Thursday,,some.
But no effects expected up here,for now.
Maybe.
So they say.

But were Booming the Lake from the GOM at the Rigolets, just in case Godzilla and Brimstone show up this week.

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BP stands for one thing now.
BIG POLLUTER


Truth hurts.
Did you come up with that yourself Patrick?
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I almost agree with you Pat. But whos for sure is to blame. You can't count out Transocean or Haliburton. Got to give them all 33.3% accoutability
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Oil Spill PC LIVE NOW,,WWL-TV NOLA
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Dr Masters said:These currents will not be strong enough to push any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days, so the Keys and South Florida are safe from oil for now.

Today Gov Crist extended coastal county state of emergency south to include Sarasota County.

Now the paper says: "Scientists say the Gulf oil spill could get into the what's called the Loop Current within a day, eventually carrying oil south along the Florida coast and into the Florida Keys.

Nick Shay, a physical oceanographer at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, said Monday once the oil enters the Loop Current, it likely will end up in the Keys and continue east into the Gulf Stream.

Shay says the oil could affect Florida's beaches, coral reefs, fisheries and ecosystem within a week."
Link

Doesn't sound good.
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I got 93 degrees whith a heat index of 110Link
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Quoting Patrap:
The cofferdams that cajunkid linked in eariler is our best bet.On site in 8 days with fair seas and weather.
Maybe 4-5 to get um down.

Ya think someone would be doing a real reality show here.

Pfftttt...

Folks,many of the best in America are working 24/7/365 right now,..and BP too.

But ya just gotta wonder who advises these folks. The waiver things are ridiculous at best,
BP stands for one thing now.


BIG POLLUTER



....oooohhhhhh....I like that...hope it catches on...
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Quoting Patrap:


Well Im right up the road from the TV station and the Sites Unified Command Center is flowing stuff regularly.

Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response

www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com


Pretty horrific, huh? I'm guessing you're smelling the sweet smell of crude? Oh wait, I mean the smell of sweet crude? At least the Saints won the SB. Louisiana just can't seem to catch a break!
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The cofferdams that cajunkid linked in eariler is our best bet.On site in 8 days with fair seas and weather.
Maybe 4-5 to get um down.

Ya think someone would be doing a real reality show here.

Pfftttt...

Folks,many of the best in America are working 24/7 right now,..and BP too.

But ya just gotta wonder who advises these folks. The waiver things are ridiculous at best,
BP stands for one thing now.


BIG POLLUTER
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Not sure about this, but I would imagine 2 things could possibly happen-
1-Assuming calm water- a film of anything black would raise the temps of the material under it (water)
2- a film of anything reflective (oil sheen) could reduce the temps of the material under it (water).
Just asuming things here.
Take a pick??

here's another thing to think about: the oil is coming up from a mile under the ocean, where the water is extremely cold. is it possible that it is carrying along some of that cold water with it, and thus cooling the SSTs?

and would burning the oil raise the SSTs?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricanejunky don't drive your car run your heater,turn your lights on.Better yet just don't live your life and protect the enviroment!Then we can all live in the woods and crap in the forest!Just think of the smell!Are you one of those enviro terroist who wants everyone to live like Jermiah Johnson.Since you said we have a choice!Will you be the first one to live in a tent in woods.Also windmills don't work thousands of birds are killed each year by them.
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187. kingy
some UK air space is starting to close again due to the new icelandic volcano activity. At the moment it is Scottish and Irish airspace and they hope it doesn't spread further
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Hey Pat, thanks for the info posts. Good stuff man!


Well Im right up the road from the TV station and the Sites Unified Command Center is flowing stuff regularly.

Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response

www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com
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Quoting Patrap:
There goes somebodys Bonus..
Wow what was that guy thinking?
Member Since: 8 avril 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Pat, He had also said he doesn't believe the rams will work
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There goes somebodys Bonus..
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Hey Pat, thanks for the info posts. Good stuff man!
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they must read the entry here,LOL
They just updated on that.


BP spokesman says report of lessened oil flow unfounded


by WWL-TV.com

wwltv.com

Posted on May 3, 2010 at 12:36 PM

Updated today at 3:15 PM

A BP spokesman says that an earlier report Monday that the flow of oil leaking from the Deepwater Horizon rig had been significantly cut was not correct.

Earlier in the day, another BP spokesman told the Mobile Press-Register on Monday morning that the flow of oil leaking from Deepwater Horizon rig has been significantly cut.

The spokesman, Jeff Childs, said his company had clamped the pipe and is blocking the surge of oil from escaping into the Gulf of Mexico.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


I see your posts...
Ah thats good i was just wondering.
Member Since: 8 avril 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Some intermittent pea-sized hail here today. Otherwise, lots of rain. Unk. Looks like a 1-2" day.

Quick article from the BBC on Vortex2.

Article doesn't say much (that we don't know, anyway), but the tornado guide link is something I use with my students.
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The flow continues unabated as of now..

Unfortunately.
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Am i on ignore on here just asking


I see your posts...
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Quoting msgambler:
Breaking News: reported live from Fox 10 Mobile....Annular Ram DID NOT cut off some of leaking oil. earlier report was inaccurate.


That does not surprise me msgambler,as the BP guy sounded like he was reading,..well what he was told to read.

No word on any Crimping on the PC ,and the upper annular ram Guy is talking live on NBC here now..and no Luck as you say.
Im removing the Quantcast info.

And they gonna get a responce Im sure.
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Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response


DATE: May 03, 2010 11:37:02 CST
Media Availability: BP will provide a tour of Fabrication of Collection Device

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information:
(866)-448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages:
(800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife:
(866) 557-1401





Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240











Who: BP and Wild Well Control

What: BP will provide media opportunities to tour Wild Well fabrication yard where undersea collection device being constructed to respond to the Deepwater Horizon oil incident.

Where: Martin Terminal North, Golden Meadow (near Port Fourchon) LA 70357

Google Map with Location

When: Monday, May 3, 2010, at 3 p.m. CDT.

Interested media should contact 985.902.5231 by 2 p.m.
ShareThis
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Breaking News: reported live from Fox 10 Mobile....Annular Ram DID NOT cut off some of leaking oil. earlier report was inaccurate.
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DISREGARD
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Am i on ignore on here just asking
Member Since: 8 avril 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting twhcracker:
i think only the liberal turtles are going to die


OK. This made me laugh out loud—not an easy task. I'm impressed.
Member Since: 19 février 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 580
DATE: May 03, 2010 13:43:32 CST
Media Advisory: Unified command to conduct Deepwater Horizon incident joint press conference

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information:
(866)-448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages:
(800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife:
(866) 557-1401





Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240










Who: U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry, Minerals Management Service Gulf of Mexico Head of Field Operations Mike Saucier, BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles. Representatives from the U.S Fish and Wildlife Service, NOAA, and Transocean will be available during the question and answer period.

What: Update to the response efforts surrounding the Deepwater Horizon incident.

Where: Shell Robert Training and Conference Center, 23260 Shell Lane in Robert, La., 70455-1928. A joint information center representative will be at the gate at 2:40 p.m., to escort media.


When: 3 p.m. CDT. The call-in number for press unable to attend: (877) 918-5750. International callers use (312) 470-7364 Password RESPONSE (73776673).

Live broadcast may be available on the Digital Video Information Distribution System (DVIDS) hub, which can be accessed at www.dvidshub.net. To see the live broadcast or download video of the conference, media must register with DVIDS no later than 2:45 p.m. This can be done on the DVIDS Web site or by calling (678) 421-6612.

RSVP: Media interested in physically attending are asked to contact the joint information center at (985) 902-5231 or (985) 902-5240 no later than 2 p.m., to confirm.

Follow us on Twitter at http://twitter.com/Oil_Spill_2010 or on Facebook at Deepwater Horizon Response
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People flocking to spill, so they can work 10 hrs and still get paid 24 hrs. Plus double time
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Quoting pottery:

Not sure about this, but I would imagine 2 things could possibly happen-
1-Assuming calm water- a film of anything black would raise the temps of the material under it (water)
2- a film of anything reflective (oil sheen) could reduce the temps of the material under it (water).
Just asuming things here.
Take a pick??


Pottery - thanks for your input. Interesting thought but not an easy answer.
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A 4.4 magnitude earthquake hit the haiti region per usgs
Member Since: 8 avril 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
i think only the liberal turtles are going to die
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Just hit 94.4 degrees.. I've only been home for 20 minutes..

does everywhere heat up when you get there?
(sorry. Could not resist!)
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Quoting gulfbeachgal:
I live near Perdido Key, Pensacola-FL. Just wondering: How will the oil slick affect the SST's? Will the oil slick hamper hurricane development in the GOM? Don't know if anyone has asked this...
Thanks!

Not sure about this, but I would imagine 2 things could possibly happen-
1-Assuming calm water- a film of anything black would raise the temps of the material under it (water)
2- a film of anything reflective (oil sheen) could reduce the temps of the material under it (water).
Just asuming things here.
Take a pick??
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Quoting Jeff9641:
The GOM SST's have risen 3 degrees in the last few days at a bouy about 100 miles west of Tampa. Temps will be in the 80's there over the next several days as this heat doesn't appear to want to give. The only change will be afternnon thunderstorms starting tomorrow in C and N FL.
We need those afternoon thunderstorms here just hit 93 degrees here.
Member Since: 8 avril 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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