God is cleaning out the creek and I think making a statement about cleanliness
I am a wrecker driver for Martin's wrecker service. We were called to remove the vehicles that got caught in the flooding on interstate I 24 westbound near the Bell Road exit in Nashville Tennessee. Of course this is after the waters had subsided. It was roughly 200, 250 cars and trucks that got caught up in the flood. The debris to left is actually the remnants of a portable classroom that floated alongside the interstate and eventually rolled over and disintegrated.
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Well, the graph I just posted shows that all nino regions have cooled over the past 2 weeks. By the next ENSO update we'll likely be below .5C (Neutral)
Late May I believe.
They're usually pretty vague with their forecast numbers so Ill be more interested in CSU and TSR.
I consider neutral 0.0. Read Post 501 for a better explanation.
Sure are taking their sweet time.
Named Storms: 15-18
Hurricanes: 8-11
Major Hurricanes: N/A
Yet, well, I did a work up of the MDR April mean ST for analogue years. Check my blog. Interesting that we currently resemble 2 seasons on the opposite ends of the spectrum in MDR temps.
If we have decent atmospheric conditions to go along with the much above normal SST's, this will be a very interesting season.
(72 hour SST forecast)
*Sadly the ASCAT didn't get that area.
That is REALLY bad if the high stays to the West or if ridging builds to keep storms moving West this year.
I understand that hurricanes are nature's way of cooling off the tropics... and this year they need more cooling then most. However, when nature is done with removing the excess heat from the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, I would prefer that the hurricanes move directly North from there.
We don't need any extra cooling in the Gulf. Hurricanes need to only go as far as Cayman Islands this year, then hook a hard right and go across Cuba. Better yet, I'm sure Venezuela can use some cooling off this year. Making a sharp Left is always a good idea for hurricanes.
Don't send them into the Gulf, please.
I thought I was too. Isn't it amazing how you can be in more than one place at one time? :)
Very interesting read, thanks!
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Updated today:
Haiti don't want any hurricanes this season also
Link
It doesn't have the best conditions for development due to proximity to land and some moderate shear, but there is some 850mb vorticity.
(AP) – 1 hour ago
SANTIAGO, Chile — The U.S. Geological Survey says a magnitude-6.4 earthquake has struck of Chile's central coast. There were no immediate reports of damage or injuries.
The USGS says the quake's epicenter was 151 kilometers (94 miles) south-southwest of Concepcion, Chile, at a depth of 20 kilometers (12 miles).
Radio stations in the Bio-Bio region reported no major damages or injuries from Monday's tremor.
The area has been shaken by hundreds of smaller quakes since a huge magnitude-8.8 quake hit on Feb. 27, triggering a tsunami and killing 486 people. On Sunday, a 5.9-magnitude quake struck the area, one of more than a dozen perceptible temblors since Saturday.
Tens of thousands of Chileans are still living in tents or temporary huts.
Copyright © 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Been watching that...a little bothersome.
Have you seen anything about a link between Gulf of Guinea SST anomaly and the timing of the onset of Sahel rainfall? (not just the rainfall amount anomaly...)
Unfortunately, it doesn't even take a tropical cyclone to kill thousands in the highly impoverished nation. In May 2004, a tropical disturbance killed thousands of people from heavy rainfall.
Texas A&M Offshore Technology Research Center-May, 2006
As water depth increases, the weight of conventional risers increases to a point that only a very few fifth generation floating rigs have the capability to drill in ultra-deep water. The deck loads increase tremendously, the volume of mud required to fill the riser increases, and the choke line friction increases to a point to where successfully circulating a kick from the well becomes almost impossible. The small diameter, high pressure riser can alleviate the deck load requirements, reduce the volume of mud required, and eliminate the high choke line friction pressure experienced with conventional marine risers. This will also, minimize the problems associated with riser gas.
Choke Line
A high-pressure pipe leading from an outlet on the BOP stack to the backpressure choke and associated manifold. During well-control operations, the fluid under pressure in the wellbore flows out of the well through the choke line to the choke, reducing the fluid pressure to atmospheric pressure. In floating offshore operations, the choke and kill lines exit the subsea BOP stack and then run along the outside of the drilling riser to the surface. The volumetric and frictional effects of these long choke and kill lines must be considered to control the well properly.
Pressure Drop
a loss of pressure that results from friction sustained by a fluid passing through a line, valve, fitting, or other device...
Schlumberger Oilfield Glossary
Final (Abstract) of Risk Assemnent:
Texas A&M Offshore Technology Research Center
Results from the qualitative comparison suggest an acceptable risk and high reliability for high-pressure riser systems and surface preventers. The quantitative portion of the study is influenced by the data quality of the high-pressure system, however it provides a range of possible reliability values with an acceptable overall risk.
They're still well above average.
I just can't see any inhibiting factor this season.. the conditions in place right now are what we should be seeing in Late June! The TCHP in the Caribbean didn't get as high as it did in 2008 and 2009 until July.
Which only implies additional heat during the actual season. :/
I can agree with the first half of May not featuring any storms, but the last few days of May are pretty tricky.
That particular loop was focused on the cooling of the Gulf of Guinea which will increase Africa's rainfall.
We're already 2.5 degrees above normal near the Cape Verde islands, so thats not really a 'concern'.
Not to mention SSTs in that area generally don't reach the 26C isotherm until late July or early August.
Thanks, beell.
(I guess them Aggies are good for something...)
Scientists warn Eyjafjallajokull could trigger the Katla volcano to erupt
"Katla has been dormant for decades, but since the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull , it has seen a 200% increase in activity."
Pitt expert keeps eye on second volcano in Iceland
Exactly.
Tropical waves this year will likely be able to hold together MUCH more easily than normal years.
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