God is cleaning out the creek and I think making a statement about cleanliness
I am a wrecker driver for Martin's wrecker service. We were called to remove the vehicles that got caught in the flooding on interstate I 24 westbound near the Bell Road exit in Nashville Tennessee. Of course this is after the waters had subsided. It was roughly 200, 250 cars and trucks that got caught up in the flood. The debris to left is actually the remnants of a portable classroom that floated alongside the interstate and eventually rolled over and disintegrated.
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No flooding here.
Wow, those temperatures are rising like crazy (just as I predicted) even past the El Nino peak it is accelerating, hopefully the volcanic eruptions cooled things down if only a bit.
LOL, Amanda was not a girl. Never again.
May 03, 2010, 11:02 PM EDT
By Brian K. Sullivan
May 4 (Bloomberg) -- The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season may rival some of the worst in history as meteorological conditions mirror 2005, the record-breaking year that spawned New Orleans- wrecking Katrina, forecasters say.
The El Nino warming in the Pacific is fading and rain is keeping dust down in Africa, cutting off two phenomena that help retard Atlantic hurricane formation.
Perhaps most significantly, sea temperatures from the Cape Verde Islands to the Caribbean, where the storms usually develop, are above normal and reaching records in some areas.
“We have only seen that in three previous seasons, 2005, 1958 and 1969, and all three of those years had five major hurricanes,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground Inc. “I am definitely thinking that this is going to be a severe hurricane season.”
With less than a month to go before the official June 1 start of the season, predictions are for 14 to 18 named storms. In an average year, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph (62 kph), six of them reaching the 74-mph threshold for hurricanes and two growing into major storms with winds of 111 mph or more, the National Hurricane Center says.
Last year’s nine named storms were the fewest since 1997. Three became hurricanes and none made landfall in the U.S. As the number of hurricanes rises, so do the chances of one striking the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico or Florida’s agricultural areas.
Gulf Threat
The Gulf is home to about 27 percent of U.S. oil and 15 percent of U.S. natural gas production, the U.S. Department of Energy says. It also has seven of the 10 busiest U.S. ports, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. Florida is the second- largest producer of oranges after Brazil.
Energy disruptions could occur if 2010 produces a repeat of 2008, when hurricanes Gustav and Ike slammed into the Gulf Coast about a week apart, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consulting company.
“The good news going into hurricane season is that we have significant amounts of inventories of gasoline and distillate fuels,” he said.
In 1998, storms caused 15 million barrels of oil outages and 48 billion cubic feet of natural gas outages in the Gulf, according to AccuWeather Inc. records. In 2005, it was 110 million barrels and 683 bcf, and in 2008, 62 million barrels of oil and 408 bcf of gas were shut in.
Storms’ Destruction
The usual misery and destruction from a Gulf hurricane hit may be magnified if the spill of crude from a burned-out rig near Louisiana hasn’t been stopped before storms arrive with winds and waves that could push oil inland.
In 2005, Katrina struck Louisiana, Mississippi and part of Alabama, unleashing floods that devastated New Orleans, killing more than 1,800 people, displacing 250,000 and causing about $125 billion in damage, according to the hurricane center.
Joe Bastardi, chief hurricane forecaster at AccuWeather in State College, Pennsylvania, said he doesn’t think the Atlantic can produce 28 storms this year, as it did in 2005, the most active year on record.
“I have 2005 in the mix” of years to compare to 2010, Bastardi said. “But if I had to choose, I would choose 1998 over 2005.”
In 1998, 14 named storms formed, 11 of which turned into hurricanes, according to Weather Underground’s website. There were 15 hurricanes in 2005.
AccuWeather’s Call
AccuWeather currently calls for 16 to 18 storms to form. Bastardi predicts the current El Nino will change into a La Nina, cooling the Pacific in time to influence the hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.
While El Nino fades, hot spots in the Atlantic set a monthly record in March, breaking a mark set in 1969, and tied the high set in June 2005, Masters said. Hurricanes draw on warm water to form and gain strength.
Colorado State University researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach chose 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998 and 2005 as the years that shared the most similarities with 2010.
In 1958, 10 storms, including five major hurricanes, formed after an El Nino faded.
In 1969, Hurricane Camille crashed into the U.S. Gulf Coast with winds in excess of 200 miles per hour. The exact strength is unknown because the storm destroyed all the wind measurement devices. It killed 256 people and caused $1.4 billion in damage.
East at Risk
The U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine has a raised risk of being hit by a hurricane this year, said Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist for Andover, Massachusetts-based WSI Inc.
The Northeast usually has about a 25 percent chance of a hurricane strike, Crawford said. This year, it has a 48 percent chance, close to the 50 percent chance the Gulf of Mexico and Florida have every year, he said.
“We’re not too bullish on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast,” said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Berwyn, Pennsylvania. “We’re liking the track threatening Florida and the eastern Gulf, followed by the entire Gulf and the third emphasis would be on the Carolinas.”
Rouiller said he believes a trough will develop along the U.S. East Coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England, shielding the region. That may mean more risk for the Canadian Maritime provinces, which have some oil platforms and refineries.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center will issue its forecast on May 20.
Get Ready
Each year, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center urges everyone living along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts to prepare for a storm strike, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman, said in an e- mail.
“It’s very important to note that a seasonal outlook cannot forecast where and when storms will form, let alone if or where they will make landfall and at what strength,” Feltgen said. “It only takes one storm hitting your area to make it a bad year, regardless of the number of storms that are forecast in the seasonal outlook.”
An example of how one storm can overshadow an entire season came in 1992. That year, only six named storms and one sub- tropical system formed, and only two of those made landfall, according to hurricane center records.
One of them was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated parts of Florida and Louisiana, killing 26 people and causing $26.5 billion in damage. Its top winds of 165 at landfall in Florida made it a Category 5 storm, the most powerful on the five-step Saffir-Simpson Scale.
It was only the third time such a powerful storm hit the U.S.
--Editors: Charlotte Porter, Dan Stets
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net
Until you see a hurricane form, then it will come back. =)
Tornado's are much more scarier than hurricanes.
Tornado's come on very fast and powerful, hurricanes slowly start to go down hill.
Once your in the path of a tornado its time to hide.
Hurricane leaves you time to escape.
Morning jeff, Yes the upper 60"s are good in the morning. I have been in the 93-97 range since sunday for highs. How you been?
o come on oz its gonna be 5 or 10 years, before we see another season like the approaching season thats coming
this is the season to intercept yer cat 5
mom nature gonna spin up a few nice ones
your not gonna let a little tornado and a piece of 2by4 to the face scare ya off are ya
You're welcome:)
Let me tell you the race was the best i have ever seen. Had rain before and rain after but no rain that sunday and got 2 races for one price.
Rain has started here in PC. Hoping we do not see anywhere near the doppler reported rainfall seen in Walton County yesterday. Will report total 24 hour rainfall here tomorrow. In approximatley 30 minutes, I already have .9 inches...uh oh...
On another note, I see BP tried to pull a fast one on the poor fishermen. How terribly low that a corporation as big as BP would try something like that...I can hear them now..."we were just looking out for our stock holders..." I am sure you were. I saw a report on one of the cable networks that showed a reporter reading the contract to one of the local fishermen...because he could not read. I felt so bad for him. This is the only life these guys know. Shame on BP for even trying this.
Everyone take care.
Very Respectfully,
Jon
I agree. We have been watching the slow approach of the steam, and yesterday there were about 5 earthquakes in the area, highest about 2.9. Lots of activity. There is a good video here that shows it up close. It's in Icelandic, but good shots.
Unless you run into a nice shed with some sturdy well pipes and you can cinch yourself and Helen Hunt to it so you can get some good footage INSIDE the funnel! Oh wait...that's only in Twister. Disregard.
You are sometimes the dumbest smart guy I know. Please don't kill yourself before the chasing season begins dude! I would hate to miss out on the debates we're sure to engage in this season over margaritas.
I hear you...what else would you suggest? A hockey mask?
You need a bigger helmet :)
Well 99.9% of the time. ;) But I know what you mean. A tornado would be much more terrifying springing up literally out of the blue a lot of times. Closest I ever got was a funnel cloud not quite touching down. It picked up an oak tree and sat it on the neighbors house. We went to check on him in the pitch black. He didnt open the door. Said he'd get the tree off in the morning. Lol. Some people are hard to impress.
Generally speaking, yes they do. However, Max Mayfield's comment still sticks in my head, darnit. "I fear one day that folks are going to go to bed to a Tropical Storm and wake up to a major hurricane on their door step.
Pottery you are just being cruel now!
You'll will find out if the signal can make it up and out with the violent clouds, rain, winds interfering.
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